Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number
We demonstrate a methodology for replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 using a simple epidemiology model. We fit the model to daily data on the number of infected cases in China, Italy, the United States, and Brazil. These four countries can be viewed as representing different stages, from...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300373 |
| _version_ | 1797204002169946112 |
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| author | Shelby R. Buckman Reuven Glick Kevin J. Lansing Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau Lily M. Seitelman |
| author_facet | Shelby R. Buckman Reuven Glick Kevin J. Lansing Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau Lily M. Seitelman |
| author_sort | Shelby R. Buckman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We demonstrate a methodology for replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 using a simple epidemiology model. We fit the model to daily data on the number of infected cases in China, Italy, the United States, and Brazil. These four countries can be viewed as representing different stages, from later to earlier, of a COVID-19 epidemic cycle. We solve for a model-implied effective reproduction number Rt each day so that the model closely replicates the daily number of currently infected cases in each country. For out-of-sample projections, we fit a behavioral function to the in-sample data that allows for the endogenous response of Rt to movements in the lagged number of infected cases. We show that declines in measures of population mobility tend to precede declines in the model-implied reproduction numbers for each country. This pattern suggests that mandatory and voluntary stay-at-home behavior and social distancing during the early stages of the epidemic worked to reduce the effective reproduction number and mitigate the spread of COVID-19. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:28:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9eb86282094a431eac167b56327bb4af |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-0427 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:28:18Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj.art-9eb86282094a431eac167b56327bb4af2024-04-16T21:23:38ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272020-01-015635651Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction numberShelby R. Buckman0Reuven Glick1Kevin J. Lansing2Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau3Lily M. Seitelman4Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 101 Market Street, San Francisco CA, 94105, USAFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 101 Market Street, San Francisco CA, 94105, USACorresponding author. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 101 Market Street San Francisco, CA, 95102 USA.; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 101 Market Street, San Francisco CA, 94105, USAFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 101 Market Street, San Francisco CA, 94105, USAFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 101 Market Street, San Francisco CA, 94105, USAWe demonstrate a methodology for replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 using a simple epidemiology model. We fit the model to daily data on the number of infected cases in China, Italy, the United States, and Brazil. These four countries can be viewed as representing different stages, from later to earlier, of a COVID-19 epidemic cycle. We solve for a model-implied effective reproduction number Rt each day so that the model closely replicates the daily number of currently infected cases in each country. For out-of-sample projections, we fit a behavioral function to the in-sample data that allows for the endogenous response of Rt to movements in the lagged number of infected cases. We show that declines in measures of population mobility tend to precede declines in the model-implied reproduction numbers for each country. This pattern suggests that mandatory and voluntary stay-at-home behavior and social distancing during the early stages of the epidemic worked to reduce the effective reproduction number and mitigate the spread of COVID-19.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300373C63I12 |
| spellingShingle | Shelby R. Buckman Reuven Glick Kevin J. Lansing Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau Lily M. Seitelman Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number Infectious Disease Modelling C63 I12 |
| title | Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number |
| title_full | Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number |
| title_fullStr | Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number |
| title_full_unstemmed | Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number |
| title_short | Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number |
| title_sort | replicating and projecting the path of covid 19 with a model implied reproduction number |
| topic | C63 I12 |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300373 |
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