A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses
<p>Over the last few years, methods have been developed to answer questions on the effect of global warming on recent extreme events. Many “event attribution” studies have now been performed, a sizeable fraction even within a few weeks of the event, to increase the usefulness of the results. I...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography |
| Online Access: | https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/6/177/2020/ascmo-6-177-2020.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819018233595822080 |
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| author | S. Philip S. Kew G. J. van Oldenborgh F. Otto R. Vautard K. van der Wiel A. King F. Lott J. Arrighi R. Singh M. van Aalst |
| author_facet | S. Philip S. Kew G. J. van Oldenborgh F. Otto R. Vautard K. van der Wiel A. King F. Lott J. Arrighi R. Singh M. van Aalst |
| author_sort | S. Philip |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Over the last few years, methods have been developed to answer questions on the effect of global warming on recent extreme events. Many “event attribution” studies have now been performed, a sizeable fraction even within a few weeks of the event, to increase the usefulness of the results. In doing these analyses, it has become apparent that the attribution itself is only one step of an extended process that leads from the observation of an extreme event to a successfully communicated attribution statement. In this paper we detail the protocol that was developed by the World Weather Attribution group over the course of the last 4 years and about two dozen rapid and slow attribution studies covering warm, cold, wet, dry, and stormy extremes. It starts from the choice of which events to analyse and proceeds with the event definition, observational analysis, model evaluation, multi-model multi-method attribution, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and exposure analysis and ends with the communication procedures. This article documents this protocol. It is hoped that our protocol will be useful in designing future event attribution studies and as a starting point of a protocol for an operational attribution service.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T03:16:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9ebf96e3f8254726be161d894781041a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2364-3579 2364-3587 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T03:16:10Z |
| publishDate | 2020-11-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography |
| spelling | doaj.art-9ebf96e3f8254726be161d894781041a2022-12-21T19:17:49ZengCopernicus PublicationsAdvances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography2364-35792364-35872020-11-01617720310.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analysesS. Philip0S. Kew1G. J. van Oldenborgh2F. Otto3R. Vautard4K. van der Wiel5A. King6F. Lott7J. Arrighi8R. Singh9M. van Aalst10Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the NetherlandsEnvironmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UKLSCE/IPSL, laboratoire CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, FranceRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the NetherlandsARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne 3010, AustraliaMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the NetherlandsRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the NetherlandsRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands<p>Over the last few years, methods have been developed to answer questions on the effect of global warming on recent extreme events. Many “event attribution” studies have now been performed, a sizeable fraction even within a few weeks of the event, to increase the usefulness of the results. In doing these analyses, it has become apparent that the attribution itself is only one step of an extended process that leads from the observation of an extreme event to a successfully communicated attribution statement. In this paper we detail the protocol that was developed by the World Weather Attribution group over the course of the last 4 years and about two dozen rapid and slow attribution studies covering warm, cold, wet, dry, and stormy extremes. It starts from the choice of which events to analyse and proceeds with the event definition, observational analysis, model evaluation, multi-model multi-method attribution, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and exposure analysis and ends with the communication procedures. This article documents this protocol. It is hoped that our protocol will be useful in designing future event attribution studies and as a starting point of a protocol for an operational attribution service.</p>https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/6/177/2020/ascmo-6-177-2020.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. Philip S. Kew G. J. van Oldenborgh F. Otto R. Vautard K. van der Wiel A. King F. Lott J. Arrighi R. Singh M. van Aalst A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography |
| title | A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses |
| title_full | A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses |
| title_fullStr | A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses |
| title_full_unstemmed | A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses |
| title_short | A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses |
| title_sort | protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses |
| url | https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/6/177/2020/ascmo-6-177-2020.pdf |
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