Population-level median cycle threshold (Ct) values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases can predict the trajectory of future cases
<h4>Background</h4> Recent studies indicate that the population-level SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) values can inform the trajectory of the pandemic. The presented study investigates the potential of Ct values in predicting the future of COVID-19 cases. We also determined whether the p...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9997994/?tool=EBI |
| _version_ | 1811154337636810752 |
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| author | Naila Shoaib Asim Iqbal Farhad Ali Shah Wajeeha Zainab Maham Qasim Noore Zerqoon Muhammad Omer Naseem Rimsha Munir Nousheen Zaidi |
| author_facet | Naila Shoaib Asim Iqbal Farhad Ali Shah Wajeeha Zainab Maham Qasim Noore Zerqoon Muhammad Omer Naseem Rimsha Munir Nousheen Zaidi |
| author_sort | Naila Shoaib |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Background</h4> Recent studies indicate that the population-level SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) values can inform the trajectory of the pandemic. The presented study investigates the potential of Ct values in predicting the future of COVID-19 cases. We also determined whether the presence of symptoms could change the correlation between Ct values and future cases. <h4>Methods</h4> We examined the individuals (n = 8660) that consulted different sample collection points of a private diagnostic center in Pakistan for COVID-19 testing between June 2020 and December 2021. The medical assistant collected clinical and demographic information. The nasopharyngeal swab specimens were taken from the study participants and real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used to detect SARS-CoV-2 in these samples. <h4>Results</h4> We observed that median Ct values display significant temporal variations, which show an inverse relationship with future cases. The monthly overall median Ct values negatively correlated with the number of cases occurring one month after specimen collection (r = -0.588, p <0.05). When separately analyzed, Ct values for symptomatic cases displayed a weak negative correlation (r = -0.167, p<0.05), while Ct values from asymptomatic cases displayed a stronger negative correlation (r = -0.598, p<0.05) with the number of cases in the subsequent months. Predictive modeling using these Ct values closely forecasted the increase or decrease in the number of cases of the subsequent month. <h4>Conclusions</h4> Decreasing population-level median Ct values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases appear to be a leading indicator for predicting future COVID-19 cases. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T04:14:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9f1e2648003341809d54a066fc4af25d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T04:14:00Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-9f1e2648003341809d54a066fc4af25d2023-03-12T05:32:20ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032023-01-01183Population-level median cycle threshold (Ct) values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases can predict the trajectory of future casesNaila ShoaibAsim IqbalFarhad Ali ShahWajeeha ZainabMaham QasimNoore ZerqoonMuhammad Omer NaseemRimsha MunirNousheen Zaidi<h4>Background</h4> Recent studies indicate that the population-level SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) values can inform the trajectory of the pandemic. The presented study investigates the potential of Ct values in predicting the future of COVID-19 cases. We also determined whether the presence of symptoms could change the correlation between Ct values and future cases. <h4>Methods</h4> We examined the individuals (n = 8660) that consulted different sample collection points of a private diagnostic center in Pakistan for COVID-19 testing between June 2020 and December 2021. The medical assistant collected clinical and demographic information. The nasopharyngeal swab specimens were taken from the study participants and real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used to detect SARS-CoV-2 in these samples. <h4>Results</h4> We observed that median Ct values display significant temporal variations, which show an inverse relationship with future cases. The monthly overall median Ct values negatively correlated with the number of cases occurring one month after specimen collection (r = -0.588, p <0.05). When separately analyzed, Ct values for symptomatic cases displayed a weak negative correlation (r = -0.167, p<0.05), while Ct values from asymptomatic cases displayed a stronger negative correlation (r = -0.598, p<0.05) with the number of cases in the subsequent months. Predictive modeling using these Ct values closely forecasted the increase or decrease in the number of cases of the subsequent month. <h4>Conclusions</h4> Decreasing population-level median Ct values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases appear to be a leading indicator for predicting future COVID-19 cases.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9997994/?tool=EBI |
| spellingShingle | Naila Shoaib Asim Iqbal Farhad Ali Shah Wajeeha Zainab Maham Qasim Noore Zerqoon Muhammad Omer Naseem Rimsha Munir Nousheen Zaidi Population-level median cycle threshold (Ct) values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases can predict the trajectory of future cases PLoS ONE |
| title | Population-level median cycle threshold (Ct) values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases can predict the trajectory of future cases |
| title_full | Population-level median cycle threshold (Ct) values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases can predict the trajectory of future cases |
| title_fullStr | Population-level median cycle threshold (Ct) values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases can predict the trajectory of future cases |
| title_full_unstemmed | Population-level median cycle threshold (Ct) values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases can predict the trajectory of future cases |
| title_short | Population-level median cycle threshold (Ct) values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases can predict the trajectory of future cases |
| title_sort | population level median cycle threshold ct values for asymptomatic covid 19 cases can predict the trajectory of future cases |
| url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9997994/?tool=EBI |
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