Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble
<p>We examine past and future changes in both winter haze and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) and elucidate the influence of model physical parameterizations on these future projections for the first time. We use a large-scal...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/7443/2022/acp-22-7443-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811258189250822144 |
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| author | S. Jain S. Jain R. M. Doherty D. Sexton S. Turnock S. Turnock C. Li Z. Jia Z. Shi L. Pei |
| author_facet | S. Jain S. Jain R. M. Doherty D. Sexton S. Turnock S. Turnock C. Li Z. Jia Z. Shi L. Pei |
| author_sort | S. Jain |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>We examine past and future changes in both winter haze and clear weather
conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using a perturbed parameter
ensemble (PPE) and elucidate the influence of model physical
parameterizations on these future projections for the first time. We use a
large-scale meteorology-based haze weather index (HWI) with values
<span class="inline-formula">>1</span> as a proxy for haze-conducive weather and HWI <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M2" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo><</mo><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="26pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="3e371430f58ed9cd59df72347e393be6"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-22-7443-2022-ie00001.svg" width="26pt" height="10pt" src="acp-22-7443-2022-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> for clear weather conditions over the NCP. The PPE generated using the UK
Met Office's HadGEM-GC3 model shows that under a high-emission (RCP8.5)
scenario, the frequency of haze-conducive weather (HWI <span class="inline-formula">>1</span>) is
likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather (HWI <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M4" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo><</mo><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="26pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="c3eaceff90a1dc2a1b970c52b59910aa"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-22-7443-2022-ie00002.svg" width="26pt" height="10pt" src="acp-22-7443-2022-ie00002.png"/></svg:svg></span></span>)
is likely to decrease in the future with a growing influence of climate change
over the 21st century. Nevertheless, a reduction in the frequency of haze-conducive weather and increment in the frequency of clear weather, though less likely, is also possible. In the
future, the frequency of haze-conducive weather for a given winter could be as
much as <span class="inline-formula">∼3.5</span> times higher than the frequency of clear weather
over the NCP. More frequent haze-conducive weather (HWI <span class="inline-formula">>1</span>)
during winter over the NCP is found to be associated with an enhanced
warming of the troposphere and weaker northwesterlies in the
mid-troposphere over the NCP. We also examined the changes in the
interannual variability of the haze-conducive and clear weather and found no
marked changes in the variability during future periods. We find a clear
influence of model physical parametrizations on climatological mean
frequencies for both haze-conducive and clear weather. For the mid- to late
21st century (2033–2086), the parametric effect can explain up to
<span class="inline-formula">∼80</span> % of the variance in the climatological mean frequencies of PPE
members. This shows that different model physical parameterizations lead
to a different evolution of the model's mean climate, particularly towards the
end of the 21st century. Therefore, it is desirable to consider the PPE
in addition to the initialized and multimodel ensembles to obtain a more
comprehensive range of plausible future projections.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T18:09:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9f3108ea091c4167bffebde639c56a80 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T18:09:21Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-9f3108ea091c4167bffebde639c56a802022-12-22T03:21:52ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242022-06-01227443746010.5194/acp-22-7443-2022Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensembleS. Jain0S. Jain1R. M. Doherty2D. Sexton3S. Turnock4S. Turnock5C. Li6Z. Jia7Z. Shi8L. Pei9School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United KingdomCentre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS), SingaporeSchool of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United KingdomUniversity of Leeds Met Office Strategic (LUMOS) Research Group, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UKCenter for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaSchool of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United KingdomSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United KingdomInstitute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China<p>We examine past and future changes in both winter haze and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) and elucidate the influence of model physical parameterizations on these future projections for the first time. We use a large-scale meteorology-based haze weather index (HWI) with values <span class="inline-formula">>1</span> as a proxy for haze-conducive weather and HWI <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M2" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo><</mo><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="26pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="3e371430f58ed9cd59df72347e393be6"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-22-7443-2022-ie00001.svg" width="26pt" height="10pt" src="acp-22-7443-2022-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> for clear weather conditions over the NCP. The PPE generated using the UK Met Office's HadGEM-GC3 model shows that under a high-emission (RCP8.5) scenario, the frequency of haze-conducive weather (HWI <span class="inline-formula">>1</span>) is likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather (HWI <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M4" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo><</mo><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="26pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="c3eaceff90a1dc2a1b970c52b59910aa"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-22-7443-2022-ie00002.svg" width="26pt" height="10pt" src="acp-22-7443-2022-ie00002.png"/></svg:svg></span></span>) is likely to decrease in the future with a growing influence of climate change over the 21st century. Nevertheless, a reduction in the frequency of haze-conducive weather and increment in the frequency of clear weather, though less likely, is also possible. In the future, the frequency of haze-conducive weather for a given winter could be as much as <span class="inline-formula">∼3.5</span> times higher than the frequency of clear weather over the NCP. More frequent haze-conducive weather (HWI <span class="inline-formula">>1</span>) during winter over the NCP is found to be associated with an enhanced warming of the troposphere and weaker northwesterlies in the mid-troposphere over the NCP. We also examined the changes in the interannual variability of the haze-conducive and clear weather and found no marked changes in the variability during future periods. We find a clear influence of model physical parametrizations on climatological mean frequencies for both haze-conducive and clear weather. For the mid- to late 21st century (2033–2086), the parametric effect can explain up to <span class="inline-formula">∼80</span> % of the variance in the climatological mean frequencies of PPE members. This shows that different model physical parameterizations lead to a different evolution of the model's mean climate, particularly towards the end of the 21st century. Therefore, it is desirable to consider the PPE in addition to the initialized and multimodel ensembles to obtain a more comprehensive range of plausible future projections.</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/7443/2022/acp-22-7443-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. Jain S. Jain R. M. Doherty D. Sexton S. Turnock S. Turnock C. Li Z. Jia Z. Shi L. Pei Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble |
| title_full | Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble |
| title_fullStr | Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble |
| title_short | Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble |
| title_sort | future projections of daily haze conducive and clear weather conditions over the north china plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble |
| url | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/7443/2022/acp-22-7443-2022.pdf |
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