The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty
<p>A growing body of literature investigates the effects of solar radiation modification (SRM) on global and regional climates. Previous studies have focused on the potentials and the side effects of SRM, with little attention being given to possible deployment timescales and the levels of car...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/367/2023/esd-14-367-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797858494227939328 |
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| author | S. Baur S. Baur A. Nauels A. Nauels Z. Nicholls B. M. Sanderson C.-F. Schleussner C.-F. Schleussner |
| author_facet | S. Baur S. Baur A. Nauels A. Nauels Z. Nicholls B. M. Sanderson C.-F. Schleussner C.-F. Schleussner |
| author_sort | S. Baur |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>A growing body of literature investigates the effects of solar
radiation modification (SRM) on global and regional climates. Previous
studies have focused on the potentials and the side effects of SRM, with little
attention being given to possible deployment timescales and the levels of carbon
dioxide removal required for a phase out. Here, we investigate the
deployment timescales of SRM and how they are affected by different levels
of mitigation, net-negative emissions (NNEs) and climate uncertainty. We
generate a large dataset of 355 emission scenarios in which SRM is deployed
to keep warming levels at 1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C global mean temperature.
Probabilistic climate projections from this ensemble result in a large range
of plausible future warming and cooling rates that lead to various SRM
deployment timescales. In all pathways consistent with extrapolated current
ambition, SRM deployment would exceed 100 years even under the most
optimistic assumptions regarding climate response. As soon as the temperature
threshold is exceeded, neither mitigation nor NNEs or climate sensitivity
alone can guarantee short deployment timescales. Since the evolution of
mitigation under SRM, the availability of carbon removal technologies and
the effects of climate reversibility will be mostly unknown at its
initialisation time, it is impossible to predict how temporary SRM
deployment would be. Any deployment of SRM therefore comes with the risk of
multi-century legacies of deployment, implying multi-generational
commitments of costs, risks and negative side effects of SRM and NNEs
combined.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T21:15:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9f5bef5acbbf460d845e6a79bc5fc723 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T21:15:20Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-9f5bef5acbbf460d845e6a79bc5fc7232023-03-28T12:00:08ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872023-03-011436738110.5194/esd-14-367-2023The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertaintyS. Baur0S. Baur1A. Nauels2A. Nauels3Z. Nicholls4B. M. Sanderson5C.-F. Schleussner6C.-F. Schleussner7CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS, CNRS, Toulouse, 31100, FranceClimate Analytics, 10969 Berlin, GermanyClimate Analytics, 10969 Berlin, GermanyAustralian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, AustraliaAustralian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, AustraliaCentre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, NorwayClimate Analytics, 10969 Berlin, GermanyGeography Department and IRI THESys, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany<p>A growing body of literature investigates the effects of solar radiation modification (SRM) on global and regional climates. Previous studies have focused on the potentials and the side effects of SRM, with little attention being given to possible deployment timescales and the levels of carbon dioxide removal required for a phase out. Here, we investigate the deployment timescales of SRM and how they are affected by different levels of mitigation, net-negative emissions (NNEs) and climate uncertainty. We generate a large dataset of 355 emission scenarios in which SRM is deployed to keep warming levels at 1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C global mean temperature. Probabilistic climate projections from this ensemble result in a large range of plausible future warming and cooling rates that lead to various SRM deployment timescales. In all pathways consistent with extrapolated current ambition, SRM deployment would exceed 100 years even under the most optimistic assumptions regarding climate response. As soon as the temperature threshold is exceeded, neither mitigation nor NNEs or climate sensitivity alone can guarantee short deployment timescales. Since the evolution of mitigation under SRM, the availability of carbon removal technologies and the effects of climate reversibility will be mostly unknown at its initialisation time, it is impossible to predict how temporary SRM deployment would be. Any deployment of SRM therefore comes with the risk of multi-century legacies of deployment, implying multi-generational commitments of costs, risks and negative side effects of SRM and NNEs combined.</p>https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/367/2023/esd-14-367-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. Baur S. Baur A. Nauels A. Nauels Z. Nicholls B. M. Sanderson C.-F. Schleussner C.-F. Schleussner The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty Earth System Dynamics |
| title | The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty |
| title_full | The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty |
| title_fullStr | The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed | The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty |
| title_short | The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty |
| title_sort | deployment length of solar radiation modification an interplay of mitigation net negative emissions and climate uncertainty |
| url | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/367/2023/esd-14-367-2023.pdf |
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