Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty
Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural product...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b |
| _version_ | 1797748293845909504 |
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| author | Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Delphine Deryng Christoph Müller Joshua Elliott Fahad Saeed Christian Folberth Wenfeng Liu Xuhui Wang Thomas A M Pugh Wim Thiery Sonia I Seneviratne Joeri Rogelj |
| author_facet | Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Delphine Deryng Christoph Müller Joshua Elliott Fahad Saeed Christian Folberth Wenfeng Liu Xuhui Wang Thomas A M Pugh Wim Thiery Sonia I Seneviratne Joeri Rogelj |
| author_sort | Carl-Friedrich Schleussner |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO _2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO _2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project. For the same CO _2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO _2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5 °C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9f7c6977c9e4419e9c6698dea18eac32 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:48Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-9f7c6977c9e4419e9c6698dea18eac322023-08-09T14:33:02ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113606400710.1088/1748-9326/aab63bCrop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertaintyCarl-Friedrich Schleussner0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8471-848XDelphine Deryng1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6214-7241Christoph Müller2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9491-3550Joshua Elliott3Fahad Saeed4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1899-9118Christian Folberth5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238Wenfeng Liu6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8699-3677Xuhui Wang7Thomas A M Pugh8https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6242-7371Wim Thiery9https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5183-6145Sonia I Seneviratne10Joeri Rogelj11https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061Climate Analytics , 10969 Berlin, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , 14473 Potsdam, GermanyClimate Analytics , 10969 Berlin, Germany; Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research , New York, NY 10025, United States of AmericaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , 14473 Potsdam, GermanyUniversity of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute , Chicago, IL 60637, United States of AmericaClimate Analytics , 10969 Berlin, Germany; Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, United KingdomInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , 2361 Laxenburg, AustriaEawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology , 8600 Duebendorf, SwitzerlandLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement , CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences , Peking University, 100871 Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research , Birmingham B15 2TT, United Kingdom; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, IMK-IFU , 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyETH Zurich , 8092 Zürich, Switzerland; Vrije Universiteit Brussel , 1050 Brussels, BelgiumETH Zurich , 8092 Zürich, SwitzerlandInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , 2361 Laxenburg, Austria; ETH Zurich , 8092 Zürich, Switzerland; Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, United KingdomFollowing the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO _2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO _2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project. For the same CO _2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO _2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5 °C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b1.5 °CGGCMIHAPPI |
| spellingShingle | Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Delphine Deryng Christoph Müller Joshua Elliott Fahad Saeed Christian Folberth Wenfeng Liu Xuhui Wang Thomas A M Pugh Wim Thiery Sonia I Seneviratne Joeri Rogelj Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty Environmental Research Letters 1.5 °C GGCMI HAPPI |
| title | Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty |
| title_full | Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty |
| title_fullStr | Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed | Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty |
| title_short | Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty |
| title_sort | crop productivity changes in 1 5 °c and 2 °c worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty |
| topic | 1.5 °C GGCMI HAPPI |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b |
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