Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017
Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, eviden...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b |
| _version_ | 1827870686915330048 |
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| author | Jason E Box William T Colgan Torben Røjle Christensen Niels Martin Schmidt Magnus Lund Frans-Jan W Parmentier Ross Brown Uma S Bhatt Eugénie S Euskirchen Vladimir E Romanovsky John E Walsh James E Overland Muyin Wang Robert W Corell Walter N Meier Bert Wouters Sebastian Mernild Johanna Mård Janet Pawlak Morten Skovgård Olsen |
| author_facet | Jason E Box William T Colgan Torben Røjle Christensen Niels Martin Schmidt Magnus Lund Frans-Jan W Parmentier Ross Brown Uma S Bhatt Eugénie S Euskirchen Vladimir E Romanovsky John E Walsh James E Overland Muyin Wang Robert W Corell Walter N Meier Bert Wouters Sebastian Mernild Johanna Mård Janet Pawlak Morten Skovgård Olsen |
| author_sort | Jason E Box |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO _2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO _2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9f8f294d2d3b40c9847fae7f7b4ef717 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:49Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-9f8f294d2d3b40c9847fae7f7b4ef7172023-08-09T14:41:29ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262019-01-0114404501010.1088/1748-9326/aafc1bKey indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017Jason E Box0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0052-8705William T Colgan1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6334-1660Torben Røjle Christensen2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4917-148XNiels Martin Schmidt3Magnus Lund4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1622-2305Frans-Jan W Parmentier5https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2952-7706Ross Brown6Uma S Bhatt7https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1056-3686Eugénie S Euskirchen8Vladimir E Romanovsky9John E Walsh10James E Overland11https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2012-8832Muyin Wang12Robert W Corell13Walter N Meier14https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2857-0550Bert Wouters15https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1086-2435Sebastian Mernild16Johanna Mård17Janet Pawlak18Morten Skovgård Olsen19Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Copenhagen, DenmarkGeological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Copenhagen, DenmarkDepartment of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University , Denmark; Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University , Lund, SwedenDepartment of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University , DenmarkDepartment of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University , Denmark; Department of Soil Quality and Climate Change, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (Nibio), Ås, NorwayDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University , Lund, Sweden; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo , Oslo, NorwayClimate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change CanadaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska FairbanksInstitute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska FairbanksGeophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks , United States of AmericaInternational Arctic Research Center, University of AlaskaNOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle WA, United States of AmericaNOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle WA, United States of America; University of Washington /Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle WA, United States of AmericaUniversity of Miami , Miami, United States of America; University of the Arctic , Tromsø, Norway; Global Environment and Technology Foundation, Arlington, United States of AmericaNational Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado , Boulder, CO, United States of AmericaInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University , The Netherlands; Delft University of Technology , The NetherlandsNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway; Department of Environmental Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences , Sogndal, Norway; Direction of Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Programs, Universidad de Magallanes , Punta Arenas, ChileDepartment of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University , SwedenArctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) secretariatDanish Ministry of Energy, Efficiency and Climate, Copenhagen, DenmarkKey observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO _2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO _2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1bArctic climate changeobservational recordsAMAP |
| spellingShingle | Jason E Box William T Colgan Torben Røjle Christensen Niels Martin Schmidt Magnus Lund Frans-Jan W Parmentier Ross Brown Uma S Bhatt Eugénie S Euskirchen Vladimir E Romanovsky John E Walsh James E Overland Muyin Wang Robert W Corell Walter N Meier Bert Wouters Sebastian Mernild Johanna Mård Janet Pawlak Morten Skovgård Olsen Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 Environmental Research Letters Arctic climate change observational records AMAP |
| title | Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
| title_full | Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
| title_fullStr | Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
| title_short | Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
| title_sort | key indicators of arctic climate change 1971 2017 |
| topic | Arctic climate change observational records AMAP |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b |
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