Historical and Projected Trends of the Mean Surface Temperature in South-Southeast Mexico Using ERA5 and CMIP6
This study aimed to determine the mean temperature trends in the south-southeast region of Mexico during the historical period of 1980–2014, as well as during the future periods of 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100, as recommended by the IPCC. Additionally, the study sought to identify the climate...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-05-01
|
| Series: | Climate |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/5/111 |
| _version_ | 1797600587094687744 |
|---|---|
| author | Mercedes Andrade-Velázquez Martín José Montero-Martínez |
| author_facet | Mercedes Andrade-Velázquez Martín José Montero-Martínez |
| author_sort | Mercedes Andrade-Velázquez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study aimed to determine the mean temperature trends in the south-southeast region of Mexico during the historical period of 1980–2014, as well as during the future periods of 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100, as recommended by the IPCC. Additionally, the study sought to identify the climate change scenario that is most closely aligned with the socio-environmental conditions of the south-southeast zone of Mexico and that has the greatest impact on the region’s average temperature. The downscaling method of bias correction was conducted at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°, and an analysis of historical trends was performed for the period 1980–2014 with ERA5 and four CMIP6 models (CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6, and MRI-ESM2-0). This process was extended to future projections. The models indicated temperature differences of less than 0.5 °C with respect to ERA5, in agreement with other studies. Additionally, the current study calculated future trends for the south-southeast region using three of the CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5). The <i>z-eq</i> proposal was used to compare the slopes, enabling us to determine which of the three scenarios corresponded to the historical trend, assuming identical socio-environmental conditions. The SSP4-6.0 scenario was found to correspond to the historical trend. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:49:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9f993b71d2d042bea0d4beb9d1b7cbf5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2225-1154 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:49:58Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-9f993b71d2d042bea0d4beb9d1b7cbf52023-11-18T00:57:39ZengMDPI AGClimate2225-11542023-05-0111511110.3390/cli11050111Historical and Projected Trends of the Mean Surface Temperature in South-Southeast Mexico Using ERA5 and CMIP6Mercedes Andrade-Velázquez0Martín José Montero-Martínez1Cátedra CONACYT—Centro del Cambio Global y la Sustentabilidad (CCGS), Calle Centenario del Instituto Juárez S/N, Colonia Reforma, Villahermosa CP 86080, MexicoInstituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Subcoordinación de Eventos Extremos y Cambio Climático, Paseo Cuauhnáhuac 8532, Colonia Progreso, Jiutepec CP 62550, MexicoThis study aimed to determine the mean temperature trends in the south-southeast region of Mexico during the historical period of 1980–2014, as well as during the future periods of 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100, as recommended by the IPCC. Additionally, the study sought to identify the climate change scenario that is most closely aligned with the socio-environmental conditions of the south-southeast zone of Mexico and that has the greatest impact on the region’s average temperature. The downscaling method of bias correction was conducted at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°, and an analysis of historical trends was performed for the period 1980–2014 with ERA5 and four CMIP6 models (CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6, and MRI-ESM2-0). This process was extended to future projections. The models indicated temperature differences of less than 0.5 °C with respect to ERA5, in agreement with other studies. Additionally, the current study calculated future trends for the south-southeast region using three of the CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5). The <i>z-eq</i> proposal was used to compare the slopes, enabling us to determine which of the three scenarios corresponded to the historical trend, assuming identical socio-environmental conditions. The SSP4-6.0 scenario was found to correspond to the historical trend.https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/5/111climate changesouth-southeast MexicoCMIP6temperature trendbias correction |
| spellingShingle | Mercedes Andrade-Velázquez Martín José Montero-Martínez Historical and Projected Trends of the Mean Surface Temperature in South-Southeast Mexico Using ERA5 and CMIP6 Climate climate change south-southeast Mexico CMIP6 temperature trend bias correction |
| title | Historical and Projected Trends of the Mean Surface Temperature in South-Southeast Mexico Using ERA5 and CMIP6 |
| title_full | Historical and Projected Trends of the Mean Surface Temperature in South-Southeast Mexico Using ERA5 and CMIP6 |
| title_fullStr | Historical and Projected Trends of the Mean Surface Temperature in South-Southeast Mexico Using ERA5 and CMIP6 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Historical and Projected Trends of the Mean Surface Temperature in South-Southeast Mexico Using ERA5 and CMIP6 |
| title_short | Historical and Projected Trends of the Mean Surface Temperature in South-Southeast Mexico Using ERA5 and CMIP6 |
| title_sort | historical and projected trends of the mean surface temperature in south southeast mexico using era5 and cmip6 |
| topic | climate change south-southeast Mexico CMIP6 temperature trend bias correction |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/5/111 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mercedesandradevelazquez historicalandprojectedtrendsofthemeansurfacetemperatureinsouthsoutheastmexicousingera5andcmip6 AT martinjosemonteromartinez historicalandprojectedtrendsofthemeansurfacetemperatureinsouthsoutheastmexicousingera5andcmip6 |