Extended-range prediction of a heat wave event over the Yangtze River Valley: role of intraseasonal signals
The authors previous study reported the important role of extratropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on the occurrence of a typical heatwave event over the Yangtze River Valley. Based on the ECMWF subseasonal reforecast database, this follow-up study evaluates the extended-range prediction skill...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2019-11-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2019.1669408 |
| _version_ | 1818960367381905408 |
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| author | Xin QI Jing YANG |
| author_facet | Xin QI Jing YANG |
| author_sort | Xin QI |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The authors previous study reported the important role of extratropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on the occurrence of a typical heatwave event over the Yangtze River Valley. Based on the ECMWF subseasonal reforecast database, this follow-up study evaluates the extended-range prediction skill of the heatwave event and further unravels the close link between the ISO and extended-range prediction of the event. With a two-week lead time, this heatwave event fails to occur in the reforecast because the predicted surface temperature is significantly underestimated. More detailed analysis demonstrates that the biases for both the intensity and the location of the warming region are primarily attributable to the inaccurate extratropical intraseasonal traveling signals. This work strongly indicates that accurately capturing the extratropical intraseasonal signal from the Eurasian continent is indispensable for extended-range prediction of East Asian extreme heatwave events. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T11:56:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9fbfbbf9011b4ba18ee340c2c5666381 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1674-2834 2376-6123 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T11:56:24Z |
| publishDate | 2019-11-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-9fbfbbf9011b4ba18ee340c2c56663812022-12-21T19:41:38ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters1674-28342376-61232019-11-0112645145710.1080/16742834.2019.16694081669408Extended-range prediction of a heat wave event over the Yangtze River Valley: role of intraseasonal signalsXin QI0Jing YANG1Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing Normal UniversityThe authors previous study reported the important role of extratropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on the occurrence of a typical heatwave event over the Yangtze River Valley. Based on the ECMWF subseasonal reforecast database, this follow-up study evaluates the extended-range prediction skill of the heatwave event and further unravels the close link between the ISO and extended-range prediction of the event. With a two-week lead time, this heatwave event fails to occur in the reforecast because the predicted surface temperature is significantly underestimated. More detailed analysis demonstrates that the biases for both the intensity and the location of the warming region are primarily attributable to the inaccurate extratropical intraseasonal traveling signals. This work strongly indicates that accurately capturing the extratropical intraseasonal signal from the Eurasian continent is indispensable for extended-range prediction of East Asian extreme heatwave events.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2019.1669408extended-range predictionheat waveintraseasonal perturbationyangtze river valley |
| spellingShingle | Xin QI Jing YANG Extended-range prediction of a heat wave event over the Yangtze River Valley: role of intraseasonal signals Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters extended-range prediction heat wave intraseasonal perturbation yangtze river valley |
| title | Extended-range prediction of a heat wave event over the Yangtze River Valley: role of intraseasonal signals |
| title_full | Extended-range prediction of a heat wave event over the Yangtze River Valley: role of intraseasonal signals |
| title_fullStr | Extended-range prediction of a heat wave event over the Yangtze River Valley: role of intraseasonal signals |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extended-range prediction of a heat wave event over the Yangtze River Valley: role of intraseasonal signals |
| title_short | Extended-range prediction of a heat wave event over the Yangtze River Valley: role of intraseasonal signals |
| title_sort | extended range prediction of a heat wave event over the yangtze river valley role of intraseasonal signals |
| topic | extended-range prediction heat wave intraseasonal perturbation yangtze river valley |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2019.1669408 |
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