Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia
This study aimed to analyze the probability of the occurrence of dry/wet spell rainfall using the Markov chain model in the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. The rainfall analysis was conducted in the short rainy <i>(Belg</i>) and long rainy (<i>Kiremt</i>) seasons on a deka...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/11/3051 |
| _version_ | 1797549331440467968 |
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| author | Girma Berhe Adane Birtukan Abebe Hirpa Chul-Hee Lim Woo-Kyun Lee |
| author_facet | Girma Berhe Adane Birtukan Abebe Hirpa Chul-Hee Lim Woo-Kyun Lee |
| author_sort | Girma Berhe Adane |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study aimed to analyze the probability of the occurrence of dry/wet spell rainfall using the Markov chain model in the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. The rainfall analysis was conducted in the short rainy <i>(Belg</i>) and long rainy (<i>Kiremt</i>) seasons on a dekadal (10–day) scale over a 30-year period. In the <i>Belg</i> season, continuous, three-dekad dry spells were prevalent at all stations. Persistent dry spells might result in meteorological, hydrological, and socio-economic drought (in that order) and merge with the <i>Kiremt</i> season. The consecutive wet dekads of the <i>Kiremt</i> season indicate a higher probability of wet dekads at all stations, except Metehara. This station experienced a short duration (dekads 20–23) of wet spells, in which precipitation is more than 50% likely. Nevertheless, surplus rainwater may be recorded at Debrezeit and Wonji only in the <i>Kiremt</i> season because of a higher probability of wet spells in most dekads (dekads 19–24). At these stations, rainfall can be harvested for better water management practices to supply irrigation during the dry season, to conserve moisture, and to reduce erosion. This reduces the vulnerability of the farmers around the river basin, particularly in areas where dry spell dekads are dominant. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:12:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9fd0699a2cb24232929bc52ce6d3fed3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:12:11Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-9fd0699a2cb24232929bc52ce6d3fed32023-11-20T19:13:24ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412020-10-011211305110.3390/w12113051Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in Upper Awash River Basin, EthiopiaGirma Berhe Adane0Birtukan Abebe Hirpa1Chul-Hee Lim2Woo-Kyun Lee3School of Water Resource and Environmental Engineering, Haramaya Institute of Technology, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa 138, EthiopiaSchool of Water Resource and Environmental Engineering, Haramaya Institute of Technology, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa 138, EthiopiaOJEong Resilience Institute (OJERI), Korea University, Seoul 02841, KoreaOJEong Resilience Institute (OJERI), Korea University, Seoul 02841, KoreaThis study aimed to analyze the probability of the occurrence of dry/wet spell rainfall using the Markov chain model in the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. The rainfall analysis was conducted in the short rainy <i>(Belg</i>) and long rainy (<i>Kiremt</i>) seasons on a dekadal (10–day) scale over a 30-year period. In the <i>Belg</i> season, continuous, three-dekad dry spells were prevalent at all stations. Persistent dry spells might result in meteorological, hydrological, and socio-economic drought (in that order) and merge with the <i>Kiremt</i> season. The consecutive wet dekads of the <i>Kiremt</i> season indicate a higher probability of wet dekads at all stations, except Metehara. This station experienced a short duration (dekads 20–23) of wet spells, in which precipitation is more than 50% likely. Nevertheless, surplus rainwater may be recorded at Debrezeit and Wonji only in the <i>Kiremt</i> season because of a higher probability of wet spells in most dekads (dekads 19–24). At these stations, rainfall can be harvested for better water management practices to supply irrigation during the dry season, to conserve moisture, and to reduce erosion. This reduces the vulnerability of the farmers around the river basin, particularly in areas where dry spell dekads are dominant.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/11/3051Markov chain modeldry/wet spellrainfall probabilityUpper Awash River Basin |
| spellingShingle | Girma Berhe Adane Birtukan Abebe Hirpa Chul-Hee Lim Woo-Kyun Lee Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia Water Markov chain model dry/wet spell rainfall probability Upper Awash River Basin |
| title | Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full | Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_short | Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_sort | spatial and temporal analysis of dry and wet spells in upper awash river basin ethiopia |
| topic | Markov chain model dry/wet spell rainfall probability Upper Awash River Basin |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/11/3051 |
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