Using prediction markets to predict the outcomes in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's next-generation social science programme

Using prediction markets to predict the outcomes in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's next-generation social science programme

There is evidence that prediction markets are useful tools to aggregate information on researchers' beliefs about scientific results including the outcome of replications. In this study, we use prediction markets to forecast the results of novel experimental designs that test established theori...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Domenico Viganola, Grant Buckles, Yiling Chen, Pablo Diego-Rosell, Magnus Johannesson, Brian A. Nosek, Thomas Pfeiffer, Adam Siegel, Anna Dreber
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: The Royal Society 2021-07-01
Series:Royal Society Open Science
Subjects:
prediction markets
peer beliefs
hypothesis
Online Access:https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.181308

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