Influence of population density, temperature, and absolute humidity on spread and decay durations of COVID-19: A comparative study of scenarios in China, England, Germany, and Japan
In this study, we analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in several cities of China, England, Germany, and Japan, where the first wave has undergone decay. Differences in medical and health insurance systems, as well as in regional policies incommoded the comparison of the...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2021-06-01
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| Series: | One Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771420303049 |
| _version_ | 1818934982628868096 |
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| author | Yinliang Diao Sachiko Kodera Daisuke Anzai Jose Gomez-Tames Essam A. Rashed Akimasa Hirata |
| author_facet | Yinliang Diao Sachiko Kodera Daisuke Anzai Jose Gomez-Tames Essam A. Rashed Akimasa Hirata |
| author_sort | Yinliang Diao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, we analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in several cities of China, England, Germany, and Japan, where the first wave has undergone decay. Differences in medical and health insurance systems, as well as in regional policies incommoded the comparison of the spread and decay in different cities and countries. The spread and decay durations in the cities of the four studied countries were reordered and calculated based on an asymmetric bell-shaped model. We acquired the values of the ambient temperature, absolute humidity, and population density to perform multivariable analysis. We found a significant correlation (p < 0.05) of the spread and decay durations with population density in the four analyzed countries. Specifically, spread duration showed a high correlation with population density and absolute humidity (p < 0.05), whereas decay duration demonstrated the highest correlation with population density, absolute humidity, and maximum temperature (p < 0.05). The effect of population density was almost nonexistent in China because of the implemented strict lockdown. Our findings will be useful in policy setting and governmental actions in the next pandemic, as well as in the next waves of COVID-19. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T05:12:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a0251e11236a471e82ce01e21aac20ca |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2352-7714 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T05:12:56Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | One Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-a0251e11236a471e82ce01e21aac20ca2022-12-21T19:52:14ZengElsevierOne Health2352-77142021-06-0112100203Influence of population density, temperature, and absolute humidity on spread and decay durations of COVID-19: A comparative study of scenarios in China, England, Germany, and JapanYinliang Diao0Sachiko Kodera1Daisuke Anzai2Jose Gomez-Tames3Essam A. Rashed4Akimasa Hirata5Department of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, JapanDepartment of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, JapanDepartment of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan; Center of Biomedical Physics and Information Technology, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, JapanDepartment of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan; Center of Biomedical Physics and Information Technology, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, JapanDepartment of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan; Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Suez Canal University, Ismailia 41522, EgyptDepartment of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan; Center of Biomedical Physics and Information Technology, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan; Corresponding author at: Center of Biomedical Physics and Information Technology, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Gokiso-cho, Showaku, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan.In this study, we analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in several cities of China, England, Germany, and Japan, where the first wave has undergone decay. Differences in medical and health insurance systems, as well as in regional policies incommoded the comparison of the spread and decay in different cities and countries. The spread and decay durations in the cities of the four studied countries were reordered and calculated based on an asymmetric bell-shaped model. We acquired the values of the ambient temperature, absolute humidity, and population density to perform multivariable analysis. We found a significant correlation (p < 0.05) of the spread and decay durations with population density in the four analyzed countries. Specifically, spread duration showed a high correlation with population density and absolute humidity (p < 0.05), whereas decay duration demonstrated the highest correlation with population density, absolute humidity, and maximum temperature (p < 0.05). The effect of population density was almost nonexistent in China because of the implemented strict lockdown. Our findings will be useful in policy setting and governmental actions in the next pandemic, as well as in the next waves of COVID-19.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771420303049COVID-19TemperatureAbsolute humidityPopulation densityMultivariable analysis |
| spellingShingle | Yinliang Diao Sachiko Kodera Daisuke Anzai Jose Gomez-Tames Essam A. Rashed Akimasa Hirata Influence of population density, temperature, and absolute humidity on spread and decay durations of COVID-19: A comparative study of scenarios in China, England, Germany, and Japan One Health COVID-19 Temperature Absolute humidity Population density Multivariable analysis |
| title | Influence of population density, temperature, and absolute humidity on spread and decay durations of COVID-19: A comparative study of scenarios in China, England, Germany, and Japan |
| title_full | Influence of population density, temperature, and absolute humidity on spread and decay durations of COVID-19: A comparative study of scenarios in China, England, Germany, and Japan |
| title_fullStr | Influence of population density, temperature, and absolute humidity on spread and decay durations of COVID-19: A comparative study of scenarios in China, England, Germany, and Japan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Influence of population density, temperature, and absolute humidity on spread and decay durations of COVID-19: A comparative study of scenarios in China, England, Germany, and Japan |
| title_short | Influence of population density, temperature, and absolute humidity on spread and decay durations of COVID-19: A comparative study of scenarios in China, England, Germany, and Japan |
| title_sort | influence of population density temperature and absolute humidity on spread and decay durations of covid 19 a comparative study of scenarios in china england germany and japan |
| topic | COVID-19 Temperature Absolute humidity Population density Multivariable analysis |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771420303049 |
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