State variation in effects of state social distancing policies on COVID-19 cases
Abstract Background The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) sickened over 20 million residents in the United States (US) by January 2021. Our objective was to describe state variation in the effect of initial social distancing policies and non-essential business (NEB) closure on infection rate...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2021-06-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-11236-3 |
| _version_ | 1819145587229982720 |
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| author | Brystana G. Kaufman Rebecca Whitaker Nirosha Mahendraratnam Sophie Hurewitz Jeremy Yi Valerie A. Smith Mark McClellan |
| author_facet | Brystana G. Kaufman Rebecca Whitaker Nirosha Mahendraratnam Sophie Hurewitz Jeremy Yi Valerie A. Smith Mark McClellan |
| author_sort | Brystana G. Kaufman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) sickened over 20 million residents in the United States (US) by January 2021. Our objective was to describe state variation in the effect of initial social distancing policies and non-essential business (NEB) closure on infection rates early in 2020. Methods We used an interrupted time series study design to estimate the total effect of all state social distancing orders, including NEB closure, shelter-in-place, and stay-at-home orders, on cumulative COVID-19 cases for each state. Data included the daily number of COVID-19 cases and deaths for all 50 states and Washington, DC from the New York Times database (January 21 to May 7, 2020). We predicted cumulative daily cases and deaths using a generalized linear model with a negative binomial distribution and a log link for two models. Results Social distancing was associated with a 15.4% daily reduction (Relative Risk = 0.846; Confidence Interval [CI] = 0.832, 0.859) in COVID-19 cases. After 3 weeks, social distancing prevented nearly 33 million cases nationwide, with about half (16.5 million) of those prevented cases among residents of the Mid-Atlantic census division (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania). Eleven states prevented more than 10,000 cases per 100,000 residents within 3 weeks. Conclusions The effect of social distancing on the infection rate of COVID-19 in the US varied substantially across states, and effects were largest in states with highest community spread. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T13:00:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a04305d6365145aa994066eceed8850d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T13:00:24Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-a04305d6365145aa994066eceed8850d2022-12-21T18:25:01ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582021-06-012111610.1186/s12889-021-11236-3State variation in effects of state social distancing policies on COVID-19 casesBrystana G. Kaufman0Rebecca Whitaker1Nirosha Mahendraratnam2Sophie Hurewitz3Jeremy Yi4Valerie A. Smith5Mark McClellan6Margolis Center for Health Policy, Duke UniversityMargolis Center for Health Policy, Duke UniversityMargolis Center for Health Policy, Duke UniversityMargolis Center for Health Policy, Duke UniversityMargolis Center for Health Policy, Duke UniversityPopulation Health Sciences, Duke University School of MedicineMargolis Center for Health Policy, Duke UniversityAbstract Background The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) sickened over 20 million residents in the United States (US) by January 2021. Our objective was to describe state variation in the effect of initial social distancing policies and non-essential business (NEB) closure on infection rates early in 2020. Methods We used an interrupted time series study design to estimate the total effect of all state social distancing orders, including NEB closure, shelter-in-place, and stay-at-home orders, on cumulative COVID-19 cases for each state. Data included the daily number of COVID-19 cases and deaths for all 50 states and Washington, DC from the New York Times database (January 21 to May 7, 2020). We predicted cumulative daily cases and deaths using a generalized linear model with a negative binomial distribution and a log link for two models. Results Social distancing was associated with a 15.4% daily reduction (Relative Risk = 0.846; Confidence Interval [CI] = 0.832, 0.859) in COVID-19 cases. After 3 weeks, social distancing prevented nearly 33 million cases nationwide, with about half (16.5 million) of those prevented cases among residents of the Mid-Atlantic census division (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania). Eleven states prevented more than 10,000 cases per 100,000 residents within 3 weeks. Conclusions The effect of social distancing on the infection rate of COVID-19 in the US varied substantially across states, and effects were largest in states with highest community spread.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-11236-3COVID-19Social distancingPublic healthHealth policyOutcomes research |
| spellingShingle | Brystana G. Kaufman Rebecca Whitaker Nirosha Mahendraratnam Sophie Hurewitz Jeremy Yi Valerie A. Smith Mark McClellan State variation in effects of state social distancing policies on COVID-19 cases BMC Public Health COVID-19 Social distancing Public health Health policy Outcomes research |
| title | State variation in effects of state social distancing policies on COVID-19 cases |
| title_full | State variation in effects of state social distancing policies on COVID-19 cases |
| title_fullStr | State variation in effects of state social distancing policies on COVID-19 cases |
| title_full_unstemmed | State variation in effects of state social distancing policies on COVID-19 cases |
| title_short | State variation in effects of state social distancing policies on COVID-19 cases |
| title_sort | state variation in effects of state social distancing policies on covid 19 cases |
| topic | COVID-19 Social distancing Public health Health policy Outcomes research |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-11236-3 |
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