Impact of climate and land use/land cover change on Lobo reservoir inflow, West-Central of Côte d'Ivoire
Study region: Lobo River Catchment (Côte d’Ivoire) Study focus: In this study, four regional climate models (RCMs) (RC4; CCLM4–8–17; RACMO22T and REMO) for the 2030 and 2050 periods compared to the reference period (1986–2005), combined with a simulation of land use and land cover (LULC) with Land C...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823001040 |
| _version_ | 1797801787537752064 |
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| author | Bérenger Koffi Alexis Loukou Brou Kouamé Jean Olivier Kouadio Valentin Brice Ebodé Konan Jean-Yves N'guessan Gnibga Issoufou Yangouliba Konaté Yaya Dibi Brou Kouakou Lazare Kouassi |
| author_facet | Bérenger Koffi Alexis Loukou Brou Kouamé Jean Olivier Kouadio Valentin Brice Ebodé Konan Jean-Yves N'guessan Gnibga Issoufou Yangouliba Konaté Yaya Dibi Brou Kouakou Lazare Kouassi |
| author_sort | Bérenger Koffi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Lobo River Catchment (Côte d’Ivoire) Study focus: In this study, four regional climate models (RCMs) (RC4; CCLM4–8–17; RACMO22T and REMO) for the 2030 and 2050 periods compared to the reference period (1986–2005), combined with a simulation of land use and land cover (LULC) with Land Change Modeler, are used to drive the CEQUEAU model to quantify their impact on inflows to the Lobo River reservoir. 1988–2006 is used as a calibration period, whereas 2007–2015 is used for the validation. Three scenarios were used. First, varying LULC and keeping climate parameters static over the baseline period (scenario 1); in scenario 2, varying RCMs and keeping LULC static over the baseline period and in scenario 3, simultaneous variation of LULC and RCMs. New hydrological insights for the region: CEQUEAU showed good performance during calibration and validation: NSE (0.7, 0.75); R² (0.83, 0.65); PBIAS (14.1%, 12%) and RMSE (0.83, 2.15). The results show that a decrease in precipitation by 2030 (−14.6%), by 2050 (−15.2%) under scenario 2 (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and by − 6.1% under RCP 4. 5 (Scenario 3), we observe an increase in runoff of 10.8–18.87% (Scenario 1), 1.2–4.46% (RCP4.5), 3.35% and 2.7% (RCP8.5) (Scenario 2) and 6.58–11.83 (RCP 4.5), 14.83–17.72% (RCP 8.5) (scenario 3). Changes in LULC were identified as the main causes, rather than climate variability. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:55:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a04416b14a03449598a906f9898256d4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:55:47Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-a04416b14a03449598a906f9898256d42023-06-18T05:02:02ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182023-06-0147101417Impact of climate and land use/land cover change on Lobo reservoir inflow, West-Central of Côte d'IvoireBérenger Koffi0Alexis Loukou Brou1Kouamé Jean Olivier Kouadio2Valentin Brice Ebodé3Konan Jean-Yves N'guessan4Gnibga Issoufou Yangouliba5Konaté Yaya6Dibi Brou7Kouakou Lazare Kouassi8Laboratory of Science and Technology of Environment, Jean Lorougnon Guédé University, BP 150 Daloa, Côte d’Ivoire; Corresponding author.Laboratory of Science and Technology of Environment, Jean Lorougnon Guédé University, BP 150 Daloa, Côte d’IvoireLaboratory of Science and Technology of Environment, Jean Lorougnon Guédé University, BP 150 Daloa, Côte d’IvoireDepartment of Geography, University of Yaounde, 1, Yaounde, P.O. Box 755, CameroonLaboratory of Science and Technology of Environment, Jean Lorougnon Guédé University, BP 150 Daloa, Côte d’IvoireDoctoral Research Program in Climate Change and Water Resources, National Water Institute, University of Abomey Calavi, P.O. Box, 4521 Cotonou, BeninLaboratory of Science and Technology of Environment, Jean Lorougnon Guédé University, BP 150 Daloa, Côte d’IvoireLaboratory of Science and Technology of Environment, Jean Lorougnon Guédé University, BP 150 Daloa, Côte d’IvoireLaboratory of Science and Technology of Environment, Jean Lorougnon Guédé University, BP 150 Daloa, Côte d’IvoireStudy region: Lobo River Catchment (Côte d’Ivoire) Study focus: In this study, four regional climate models (RCMs) (RC4; CCLM4–8–17; RACMO22T and REMO) for the 2030 and 2050 periods compared to the reference period (1986–2005), combined with a simulation of land use and land cover (LULC) with Land Change Modeler, are used to drive the CEQUEAU model to quantify their impact on inflows to the Lobo River reservoir. 1988–2006 is used as a calibration period, whereas 2007–2015 is used for the validation. Three scenarios were used. First, varying LULC and keeping climate parameters static over the baseline period (scenario 1); in scenario 2, varying RCMs and keeping LULC static over the baseline period and in scenario 3, simultaneous variation of LULC and RCMs. New hydrological insights for the region: CEQUEAU showed good performance during calibration and validation: NSE (0.7, 0.75); R² (0.83, 0.65); PBIAS (14.1%, 12%) and RMSE (0.83, 2.15). The results show that a decrease in precipitation by 2030 (−14.6%), by 2050 (−15.2%) under scenario 2 (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and by − 6.1% under RCP 4. 5 (Scenario 3), we observe an increase in runoff of 10.8–18.87% (Scenario 1), 1.2–4.46% (RCP4.5), 3.35% and 2.7% (RCP8.5) (Scenario 2) and 6.58–11.83 (RCP 4.5), 14.83–17.72% (RCP 8.5) (scenario 3). Changes in LULC were identified as the main causes, rather than climate variability.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823001040Climate changeLand use/land coverCEQUEAU modelHydrological modellingLobo reservoir (LR) |
| spellingShingle | Bérenger Koffi Alexis Loukou Brou Kouamé Jean Olivier Kouadio Valentin Brice Ebodé Konan Jean-Yves N'guessan Gnibga Issoufou Yangouliba Konaté Yaya Dibi Brou Kouakou Lazare Kouassi Impact of climate and land use/land cover change on Lobo reservoir inflow, West-Central of Côte d'Ivoire Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Climate change Land use/land cover CEQUEAU model Hydrological modelling Lobo reservoir (LR) |
| title | Impact of climate and land use/land cover change on Lobo reservoir inflow, West-Central of Côte d'Ivoire |
| title_full | Impact of climate and land use/land cover change on Lobo reservoir inflow, West-Central of Côte d'Ivoire |
| title_fullStr | Impact of climate and land use/land cover change on Lobo reservoir inflow, West-Central of Côte d'Ivoire |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of climate and land use/land cover change on Lobo reservoir inflow, West-Central of Côte d'Ivoire |
| title_short | Impact of climate and land use/land cover change on Lobo reservoir inflow, West-Central of Côte d'Ivoire |
| title_sort | impact of climate and land use land cover change on lobo reservoir inflow west central of cote d ivoire |
| topic | Climate change Land use/land cover CEQUEAU model Hydrological modelling Lobo reservoir (LR) |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823001040 |
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