Public health impacts of excess NOx emissions from Volkswagen diesel passenger vehicles in Germany
In September 2015, the Volkswagen Group (VW) admitted the use of ‘defeat devices’ designed to lower emissions measured during VW vehicle testing for regulatory purposes. Globally, 11 million cars sold between 2008 and 2015 are affected, including about 2.6 million in Germany. On-road emissions tests...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2017-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5987 |
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| author | Guillaume P Chossière Robert Malina Akshay Ashok Irene C Dedoussi Sebastian D Eastham Raymond L Speth Steven R H Barrett |
| author_facet | Guillaume P Chossière Robert Malina Akshay Ashok Irene C Dedoussi Sebastian D Eastham Raymond L Speth Steven R H Barrett |
| author_sort | Guillaume P Chossière |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In September 2015, the Volkswagen Group (VW) admitted the use of ‘defeat devices’ designed to lower emissions measured during VW vehicle testing for regulatory purposes. Globally, 11 million cars sold between 2008 and 2015 are affected, including about 2.6 million in Germany. On-road emissions tests have yielded mean on-road NO _x emissions for these cars of 0.85 g km ^−1 , over four times the applicable European limit of 0.18 g km ^−1 . This study estimates the human health impacts and costs associated with excess emissions from VW cars driven in Germany. A distribution of on-road emissions factors is derived from existing measurements and combined with sales data and a vehicle fleet model to estimate total excess NO _x emissions. These emissions are distributed on a 25 by 28 km grid covering Europe, using the German Federal Environmental Protection Agency’s (UBA) estimate of the spatial distribution of NO _x emissions from passenger cars in Germany. We use the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model to predict the corresponding increase in population exposure to fine particulate matter and ozone in the European Union, Switzerland, and Norway, and a set of concentration-response functions to estimate mortality outcomes in terms of early deaths and of life-years lost. Integrated over the sales period (2008–2015), we estimate median mortality impacts from VW excess emissions in Germany to be 1200 premature deaths in Europe, corresponding to 13 000 life-years lost and 1.9 billion EUR in costs associated with life-years lost. Approximately 60% of mortality costs occur outside Germany. For the current fleet, we estimate that if on-road emissions for all affected VW vehicles in Germany are reduced to the applicable European emission standard by the end of 2017, this would avert 29 000 life-years lost and 4.1 billion 2015 EUR in health costs (median estimates) relative to a counterfactual case with no recall. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a06276463c1d4fa9968f2af5b5d10ab7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:50Z |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-a06276463c1d4fa9968f2af5b5d10ab72023-08-09T14:30:42ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262017-01-0112303401410.1088/1748-9326/aa5987Public health impacts of excess NOx emissions from Volkswagen diesel passenger vehicles in GermanyGuillaume P Chossière0Robert Malina1Akshay Ashok2Irene C Dedoussi3Sebastian D Eastham4Raymond L Speth5Steven R H Barrett6Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment , Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge MA 02139, United States of AmericaLaboratory for Aviation and the Environment , Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge MA 02139, United States of America; Center for Environmental Sciences , Hasselt University, Martelarenlaan 42, 3500 Hasselt, BelgiumLaboratory for Aviation and the Environment , Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge MA 02139, United States of AmericaLaboratory for Aviation and the Environment , Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge MA 02139, United States of AmericaAtmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group , Harvard University, 29 Oxford Street, Cambridge MA 02138, United States of AmericaLaboratory for Aviation and the Environment , Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge MA 02139, United States of AmericaLaboratory for Aviation and the Environment , Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge MA 02139, United States of America; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.In September 2015, the Volkswagen Group (VW) admitted the use of ‘defeat devices’ designed to lower emissions measured during VW vehicle testing for regulatory purposes. Globally, 11 million cars sold between 2008 and 2015 are affected, including about 2.6 million in Germany. On-road emissions tests have yielded mean on-road NO _x emissions for these cars of 0.85 g km ^−1 , over four times the applicable European limit of 0.18 g km ^−1 . This study estimates the human health impacts and costs associated with excess emissions from VW cars driven in Germany. A distribution of on-road emissions factors is derived from existing measurements and combined with sales data and a vehicle fleet model to estimate total excess NO _x emissions. These emissions are distributed on a 25 by 28 km grid covering Europe, using the German Federal Environmental Protection Agency’s (UBA) estimate of the spatial distribution of NO _x emissions from passenger cars in Germany. We use the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model to predict the corresponding increase in population exposure to fine particulate matter and ozone in the European Union, Switzerland, and Norway, and a set of concentration-response functions to estimate mortality outcomes in terms of early deaths and of life-years lost. Integrated over the sales period (2008–2015), we estimate median mortality impacts from VW excess emissions in Germany to be 1200 premature deaths in Europe, corresponding to 13 000 life-years lost and 1.9 billion EUR in costs associated with life-years lost. Approximately 60% of mortality costs occur outside Germany. For the current fleet, we estimate that if on-road emissions for all affected VW vehicles in Germany are reduced to the applicable European emission standard by the end of 2017, this would avert 29 000 life-years lost and 4.1 billion 2015 EUR in health costs (median estimates) relative to a counterfactual case with no recall.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5987Volkswagenair qualityhuman healthdiesel |
| spellingShingle | Guillaume P Chossière Robert Malina Akshay Ashok Irene C Dedoussi Sebastian D Eastham Raymond L Speth Steven R H Barrett Public health impacts of excess NOx emissions from Volkswagen diesel passenger vehicles in Germany Environmental Research Letters Volkswagen air quality human health diesel |
| title | Public health impacts of excess NOx emissions from Volkswagen diesel passenger vehicles in Germany |
| title_full | Public health impacts of excess NOx emissions from Volkswagen diesel passenger vehicles in Germany |
| title_fullStr | Public health impacts of excess NOx emissions from Volkswagen diesel passenger vehicles in Germany |
| title_full_unstemmed | Public health impacts of excess NOx emissions from Volkswagen diesel passenger vehicles in Germany |
| title_short | Public health impacts of excess NOx emissions from Volkswagen diesel passenger vehicles in Germany |
| title_sort | public health impacts of excess nox emissions from volkswagen diesel passenger vehicles in germany |
| topic | Volkswagen air quality human health diesel |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5987 |
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