Development of a nomogram prediction model for early identification of persistent coronary artery aneurysms in kawasaki disease
Abstract Background Coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) persistence prediction is critical in evaluating Kawasaki disease (KD). This study established a nomogram prediction system based on potential risk factors for assessing the risk of CAA persistence in a contemporary cohort of patients with KD. Meth...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-02-01
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| Series: | BMC Pediatrics |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12887-023-03876-8 |
| _version_ | 1797863552879427584 |
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| author | Xue Gong Liting Tang Mei Wu Shuran Shao Kaiyu Zhou Yimin Hua Chuan Wang Yifei Li |
| author_facet | Xue Gong Liting Tang Mei Wu Shuran Shao Kaiyu Zhou Yimin Hua Chuan Wang Yifei Li |
| author_sort | Xue Gong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) persistence prediction is critical in evaluating Kawasaki disease (KD). This study established a nomogram prediction system based on potential risk factors for assessing the risk of CAA persistence in a contemporary cohort of patients with KD. Methods This cohort comprised 105 patients with KD who had been diagnosed with CAA during the acute or subacute phase by echocardiography. The follow-up duration was at least 1 year. The clinical and laboratory parameters were compared between the CAA regression and persistence groups. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for CAA persistence, which were subsequently used to build the nomogram predictive model. Decision curve analysis was used to assess the net benefits of different nomogram scores. Results Of these patients with CAA, 27.6% of patients presented with persistent lesions. The incidences of CAA persistence were 14.1%, 81.3%, and 100.0% in patients with small, medium, and large aneurysms, respectively. The ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes, γ-GT, and CAA size at diagnosis were considered as the independent risk factors for CAA persistence in patients with KD. The nomogram predictive models yielded a high capability in predicting CAA persistence, based on either univariable or multivariable analyses-identified parameters, compared with using CAA size as a single predictor. Conclusion The initial ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes, γ-GT, and CAA size were the independent risk factors for CAA persistence in patients with KD. Nomogram scores could help elevate predictive efficacy in detecting CAA persistence. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T22:37:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a0eb46927275455a9ae3a4af5d7efc95 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2431 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T22:37:21Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
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| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Pediatrics |
| spelling | doaj.art-a0eb46927275455a9ae3a4af5d7efc952023-03-22T12:23:56ZengBMCBMC Pediatrics1471-24312023-02-0123111110.1186/s12887-023-03876-8Development of a nomogram prediction model for early identification of persistent coronary artery aneurysms in kawasaki diseaseXue Gong0Liting Tang1Mei Wu2Shuran Shao3Kaiyu Zhou4Yimin Hua5Chuan Wang6Yifei Li7Department of Pediatrics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Women and Children’s Diseases and Birth Defects, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan UniversityDepartment of Pediatrics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Women and Children’s Diseases and Birth Defects, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan UniversityDepartment of Pediatrics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Women and Children’s Diseases and Birth Defects, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan UniversityDepartment of Pediatrics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Women and Children’s Diseases and Birth Defects, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan UniversityDepartment of Pediatrics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Women and Children’s Diseases and Birth Defects, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan UniversityDepartment of Pediatrics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Women and Children’s Diseases and Birth Defects, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan UniversityDepartment of Pediatrics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Women and Children’s Diseases and Birth Defects, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan UniversityDepartment of Pediatrics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Women and Children’s Diseases and Birth Defects, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan UniversityAbstract Background Coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) persistence prediction is critical in evaluating Kawasaki disease (KD). This study established a nomogram prediction system based on potential risk factors for assessing the risk of CAA persistence in a contemporary cohort of patients with KD. Methods This cohort comprised 105 patients with KD who had been diagnosed with CAA during the acute or subacute phase by echocardiography. The follow-up duration was at least 1 year. The clinical and laboratory parameters were compared between the CAA regression and persistence groups. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for CAA persistence, which were subsequently used to build the nomogram predictive model. Decision curve analysis was used to assess the net benefits of different nomogram scores. Results Of these patients with CAA, 27.6% of patients presented with persistent lesions. The incidences of CAA persistence were 14.1%, 81.3%, and 100.0% in patients with small, medium, and large aneurysms, respectively. The ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes, γ-GT, and CAA size at diagnosis were considered as the independent risk factors for CAA persistence in patients with KD. The nomogram predictive models yielded a high capability in predicting CAA persistence, based on either univariable or multivariable analyses-identified parameters, compared with using CAA size as a single predictor. Conclusion The initial ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes, γ-GT, and CAA size were the independent risk factors for CAA persistence in patients with KD. Nomogram scores could help elevate predictive efficacy in detecting CAA persistence.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12887-023-03876-8Nomogram predictionKawasaki diseaseCoronary artery aneurysms persistenceRisk factorDecision curve analysis |
| spellingShingle | Xue Gong Liting Tang Mei Wu Shuran Shao Kaiyu Zhou Yimin Hua Chuan Wang Yifei Li Development of a nomogram prediction model for early identification of persistent coronary artery aneurysms in kawasaki disease BMC Pediatrics Nomogram prediction Kawasaki disease Coronary artery aneurysms persistence Risk factor Decision curve analysis |
| title | Development of a nomogram prediction model for early identification of persistent coronary artery aneurysms in kawasaki disease |
| title_full | Development of a nomogram prediction model for early identification of persistent coronary artery aneurysms in kawasaki disease |
| title_fullStr | Development of a nomogram prediction model for early identification of persistent coronary artery aneurysms in kawasaki disease |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of a nomogram prediction model for early identification of persistent coronary artery aneurysms in kawasaki disease |
| title_short | Development of a nomogram prediction model for early identification of persistent coronary artery aneurysms in kawasaki disease |
| title_sort | development of a nomogram prediction model for early identification of persistent coronary artery aneurysms in kawasaki disease |
| topic | Nomogram prediction Kawasaki disease Coronary artery aneurysms persistence Risk factor Decision curve analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12887-023-03876-8 |
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