Derivation of travel demand forecasting models for low population areas: the case of Port Said Governorate, North East Egypt
In the last decades, there has been substantial development in modeling techniques of travel demand estimation. For low population areas the external trip estimation is important but usually neglected in travel demand modeling process. In Egypt, the researches in this field are scarce due to lack of...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2014-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (English ed. Online) |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095756415301033 |
| _version_ | 1819132844960645120 |
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| author | Ahmed Mohamed Semeida |
| author_facet | Ahmed Mohamed Semeida |
| author_sort | Ahmed Mohamed Semeida |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the last decades, there has been substantial development in modeling techniques of travel demand estimation. For low population areas the external trip estimation is important but usually neglected in travel demand modeling process. In Egypt, the researches in this field are scarce due to lack of data. Accordingly, this paper aims to identify and estimate the main variables that affect the travel demand in low population areas, and to develop models to predict them. The study focused on the Port Said Governorate in North East Egypt. A special questionnaire had been prepared in 2010 depending on interviews of passengers at basic taxi terminals in Port Said. And 2211 filled questionnaires were offering for research. To analyze the data, two modeling procedures were used. One is the multiple linear regression and the other is the generalized linear modeling (GLM) applying normal distributions. It is found that GLM procedure offers more suitable and accurate approach than the linear regression for developing number of trips. The final demand models have statistics within the acceptable regions and, also, they are conceptually reasonable. These results are so important for Egyptian highway authorities to improve the efficiency of highway transportation system in Egypt. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T09:37:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a0edf1044b1641c2a8a90a66af4df1e2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2095-7564 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T09:37:52Z |
| publishDate | 2014-06-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (English ed. Online) |
| spelling | doaj.art-a0edf1044b1641c2a8a90a66af4df1e22022-12-21T18:30:46ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (English ed. Online)2095-75642014-06-011319620810.1016/S2095-7564(15)30103-3Derivation of travel demand forecasting models for low population areas: the case of Port Said Governorate, North East EgyptAhmed Mohamed SemeidaIn the last decades, there has been substantial development in modeling techniques of travel demand estimation. For low population areas the external trip estimation is important but usually neglected in travel demand modeling process. In Egypt, the researches in this field are scarce due to lack of data. Accordingly, this paper aims to identify and estimate the main variables that affect the travel demand in low population areas, and to develop models to predict them. The study focused on the Port Said Governorate in North East Egypt. A special questionnaire had been prepared in 2010 depending on interviews of passengers at basic taxi terminals in Port Said. And 2211 filled questionnaires were offering for research. To analyze the data, two modeling procedures were used. One is the multiple linear regression and the other is the generalized linear modeling (GLM) applying normal distributions. It is found that GLM procedure offers more suitable and accurate approach than the linear regression for developing number of trips. The final demand models have statistics within the acceptable regions and, also, they are conceptually reasonable. These results are so important for Egyptian highway authorities to improve the efficiency of highway transportation system in Egypt.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095756415301033travel demandlinear regressiongeneralized linear modelinglow population areasPort Said |
| spellingShingle | Ahmed Mohamed Semeida Derivation of travel demand forecasting models for low population areas: the case of Port Said Governorate, North East Egypt Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (English ed. Online) travel demand linear regression generalized linear modeling low population areas Port Said |
| title | Derivation of travel demand forecasting models for low population areas: the case of Port Said Governorate, North East Egypt |
| title_full | Derivation of travel demand forecasting models for low population areas: the case of Port Said Governorate, North East Egypt |
| title_fullStr | Derivation of travel demand forecasting models for low population areas: the case of Port Said Governorate, North East Egypt |
| title_full_unstemmed | Derivation of travel demand forecasting models for low population areas: the case of Port Said Governorate, North East Egypt |
| title_short | Derivation of travel demand forecasting models for low population areas: the case of Port Said Governorate, North East Egypt |
| title_sort | derivation of travel demand forecasting models for low population areas the case of port said governorate north east egypt |
| topic | travel demand linear regression generalized linear modeling low population areas Port Said |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095756415301033 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ahmedmohamedsemeida derivationoftraveldemandforecastingmodelsforlowpopulationareasthecaseofportsaidgovernoratenortheastegypt |