Impacts of bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs on hydrological simulations
Bias correction methods are based on the assumption of bias stationarity of climate model outputs. However, this assumption may not be valid, because of the natural climate variability. This study investigates the impacts of bias nonstationarity of climate models simulated precipitation and temperat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Hydrology Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hr.iwaponline.com/content/51/5/925 |
| _version_ | 1818390288531456000 |
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| author | Yu Hui Yuni Xu Jie Chen Chong-Yu Xu Hua Chen |
| author_facet | Yu Hui Yuni Xu Jie Chen Chong-Yu Xu Hua Chen |
| author_sort | Yu Hui |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Bias correction methods are based on the assumption of bias stationarity of climate model outputs. However, this assumption may not be valid, because of the natural climate variability. This study investigates the impacts of bias nonstationarity of climate models simulated precipitation and temperature on hydrological climate change impact studies. The bias nonstationarity is determined as the range of difference in bias over multiple historical periods with no anthropogenic climate change for four different time windows. The role of bias nonstationarity in future climate change is assessed using the signal-to-noise ratio as a criterion. The results show that biases of climate models simulated monthly and annual precipitation and temperature vary with time, especially for short time windows. The bias nonstationarity of precipitation plays a great role in future precipitation change, while the role of temperature bias is not important. The bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs is amplified when driving a hydrological model for hydrological simulations. The increase in the length of time window can mitigate the impacts of bias nonstationarity for streamflow projections. Thus, a long time period is suggested to be used to calibrate a bias correction method for hydrological climate change impact studies to reduce the influence of natural climate variability. HIGHLIGHTS
The biases of GCM precipitation and temperature vary with time, due to natural climate variability.;
The bias nonstationarity of precipitation plays a great role in future precipitation change, while the role of temperature bias is not important.;
The bias nonstationarity of precipitation and temperature has great considerable impacts on future streamflow changes.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T04:55:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a0f1060c36974c03a8333a35cfe42460 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1998-9563 2224-7955 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T04:55:15Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-a0f1060c36974c03a8333a35cfe424602022-12-21T23:16:25ZengIWA PublishingHydrology Research1998-95632224-79552020-10-0151592594110.2166/nh.2020.254254Impacts of bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs on hydrological simulationsYu Hui0Yuni Xu1Jie Chen2Chong-Yu Xu3Hua Chen4 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China Bureau of Hydrology, ChangJiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan, China State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China Bias correction methods are based on the assumption of bias stationarity of climate model outputs. However, this assumption may not be valid, because of the natural climate variability. This study investigates the impacts of bias nonstationarity of climate models simulated precipitation and temperature on hydrological climate change impact studies. The bias nonstationarity is determined as the range of difference in bias over multiple historical periods with no anthropogenic climate change for four different time windows. The role of bias nonstationarity in future climate change is assessed using the signal-to-noise ratio as a criterion. The results show that biases of climate models simulated monthly and annual precipitation and temperature vary with time, especially for short time windows. The bias nonstationarity of precipitation plays a great role in future precipitation change, while the role of temperature bias is not important. The bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs is amplified when driving a hydrological model for hydrological simulations. The increase in the length of time window can mitigate the impacts of bias nonstationarity for streamflow projections. Thus, a long time period is suggested to be used to calibrate a bias correction method for hydrological climate change impact studies to reduce the influence of natural climate variability. HIGHLIGHTS The biases of GCM precipitation and temperature vary with time, due to natural climate variability.; The bias nonstationarity of precipitation plays a great role in future precipitation change, while the role of temperature bias is not important.; The bias nonstationarity of precipitation and temperature has great considerable impacts on future streamflow changes.;http://hr.iwaponline.com/content/51/5/925bias nonstationarityclimate change signalclimate model outputshydrologynatural climate variability |
| spellingShingle | Yu Hui Yuni Xu Jie Chen Chong-Yu Xu Hua Chen Impacts of bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs on hydrological simulations Hydrology Research bias nonstationarity climate change signal climate model outputs hydrology natural climate variability |
| title | Impacts of bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs on hydrological simulations |
| title_full | Impacts of bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs on hydrological simulations |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs on hydrological simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs on hydrological simulations |
| title_short | Impacts of bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs on hydrological simulations |
| title_sort | impacts of bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs on hydrological simulations |
| topic | bias nonstationarity climate change signal climate model outputs hydrology natural climate variability |
| url | http://hr.iwaponline.com/content/51/5/925 |
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