Prediction of Suicide Attempts Using the Box-Jenkins Model
Objective: Suicide is a preventable social harm in the field of health. The present study aimed to design a prediction model for suicide incidence based on Box-Jenkins model in Ilam province. Method: Using a retrospective method all completed and attempted suicide data were collected during 1993-201...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Tehran University of Medical Sciences
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Iranian Journal of Psychiatry |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ijps.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijps/article/view/1546 |
| _version_ | 1819147860609859584 |
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| author | Yosra Azizpour Kourosh Sayehmiri Khairollah Asadollahi |
| author_facet | Yosra Azizpour Kourosh Sayehmiri Khairollah Asadollahi |
| author_sort | Yosra Azizpour |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective: Suicide is a preventable social harm in the field of health. The present study aimed to design a prediction model for suicide incidence based on Box-Jenkins model in Ilam province.
Method: Using a retrospective method all completed and attempted suicide data were collected during 1993-2013. Then, using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins model was conducted to predict suicide status in the coming years (2014-2015).
Results: According to the actual results obtained from the suicide data in 2014, a total of 1078 suicides were recorded and compared to the predicted results, according to the fitted model of the time series, which showed the selected model predicted 931 suicide cases, showing 86% accuracy of prediction. The series’ prediction indicated 931 suicides in 2014 with a negative growth rate of 25.3% compared to 2013 and 969 suicide cases in 2015 with a positive growth rate of 3.93% compared to 2014.
Conclusion: The results of this study showed the designed model provides a high diagnostic value to predict suicide rates. These types of models can help to predict suicide in future and plan to control and prevent suicide attempts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T13:36:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a10822ed967d4220a80147c819defbc9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1735-4587 2008-2215 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T13:36:32Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Tehran University of Medical Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Iranian Journal of Psychiatry |
| spelling | doaj.art-a10822ed967d4220a80147c819defbc92022-12-21T18:24:02ZengTehran University of Medical SciencesIranian Journal of Psychiatry1735-45872008-22152020-09-0115410.18502/ijps.v15i4.4296Prediction of Suicide Attempts Using the Box-Jenkins ModelYosra Azizpour0Kourosh Sayehmiri1Khairollah Asadollahi2Department of Epidemiology, School of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran.Department of Biostatistics, School of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran.Department of Social Medicine, School of Medecine, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran.Objective: Suicide is a preventable social harm in the field of health. The present study aimed to design a prediction model for suicide incidence based on Box-Jenkins model in Ilam province. Method: Using a retrospective method all completed and attempted suicide data were collected during 1993-2013. Then, using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins model was conducted to predict suicide status in the coming years (2014-2015). Results: According to the actual results obtained from the suicide data in 2014, a total of 1078 suicides were recorded and compared to the predicted results, according to the fitted model of the time series, which showed the selected model predicted 931 suicide cases, showing 86% accuracy of prediction. The series’ prediction indicated 931 suicides in 2014 with a negative growth rate of 25.3% compared to 2013 and 969 suicide cases in 2015 with a positive growth rate of 3.93% compared to 2014. Conclusion: The results of this study showed the designed model provides a high diagnostic value to predict suicide rates. These types of models can help to predict suicide in future and plan to control and prevent suicide attempts.https://ijps.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijps/article/view/1546Box-Jenkins ModelEpidemiologySuicide PredictionIlam |
| spellingShingle | Yosra Azizpour Kourosh Sayehmiri Khairollah Asadollahi Prediction of Suicide Attempts Using the Box-Jenkins Model Iranian Journal of Psychiatry Box-Jenkins Model Epidemiology Suicide Prediction Ilam |
| title | Prediction of Suicide Attempts Using the Box-Jenkins Model |
| title_full | Prediction of Suicide Attempts Using the Box-Jenkins Model |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of Suicide Attempts Using the Box-Jenkins Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of Suicide Attempts Using the Box-Jenkins Model |
| title_short | Prediction of Suicide Attempts Using the Box-Jenkins Model |
| title_sort | prediction of suicide attempts using the box jenkins model |
| topic | Box-Jenkins Model Epidemiology Suicide Prediction Ilam |
| url | https://ijps.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijps/article/view/1546 |
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