COVID’s collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States
Abstract Background Lockdowns imposed throughout the US to control the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in all routine immunizations rates, including the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine. It is feared that post-lockdown, these reduced MMR rates will lead to a resurgence of measles. Methods To...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2022-09-01
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| Series: | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-022-07703-w |
| _version_ | 1818017123162652672 |
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| author | Mugdha Thakur Richard Zhou Mukundan Mohan Achla Marathe Jiangzhuo Chen Stefan Hoops Dustin Machi Bryan Lewis Anil Vullikanti |
| author_facet | Mugdha Thakur Richard Zhou Mukundan Mohan Achla Marathe Jiangzhuo Chen Stefan Hoops Dustin Machi Bryan Lewis Anil Vullikanti |
| author_sort | Mugdha Thakur |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Lockdowns imposed throughout the US to control the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in all routine immunizations rates, including the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine. It is feared that post-lockdown, these reduced MMR rates will lead to a resurgence of measles. Methods To measure the potential impact of reduced MMR vaccination rates on measles outbreak, this research examines several counterfactual scenarios in pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 era. An agent-based modeling framework is used to simulate the spread of measles on a synthetic yet realistic social network of Virginia. The change in vulnerability of various communities to measles due to reduced MMR rate is analyzed. Results Results show that a decrease in vaccination rate $$(\mathrm{\alpha })$$ ( α ) has a highly non-linear effect on the number of measles cases and this effect grows exponentially beyond a threshold $$(\mathrm{\alpha })$$ ( α ) . At low vaccination rates, faster isolation of cases and higher compliance to home-isolation are not enough to control the outbreak. The overall impact on urban and rural counties is proportional to their population size but the younger children, African Americans and American Indians are disproportionately infected and hence are more vulnerable to the reduction in the vaccination rate. Conclusions At low vaccination rates, broader interventions are needed to control the outbreak. Identifying the cause of the decline in vaccination rates (e.g., low income) can help design targeted interventions which can dampen the disproportional impact on more vulnerable populations and reduce disparities in health. Per capita burden of the potential measles resurgence is equivalent in the rural and the urban communities and hence proportionally equitable public health resources should be allocated to rural regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T07:22:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a1278aaae40a4adba626a926f12df29f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2334 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T07:22:48Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-a1278aaae40a4adba626a926f12df29f2022-12-22T02:06:07ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342022-09-0122111810.1186/s12879-022-07703-wCOVID’s collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United StatesMugdha Thakur0Richard Zhou1Mukundan Mohan2Achla Marathe3Jiangzhuo Chen4Stefan Hoops5Dustin Machi6Bryan Lewis7Anil Vullikanti8Biocomplexity InstituteBiocomplexity InstituteBiocomplexity InstituteBiocomplexity InstituteBiocomplexity InstituteBiocomplexity InstituteBiocomplexity InstituteBiocomplexity InstituteBiocomplexity InstituteAbstract Background Lockdowns imposed throughout the US to control the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in all routine immunizations rates, including the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine. It is feared that post-lockdown, these reduced MMR rates will lead to a resurgence of measles. Methods To measure the potential impact of reduced MMR vaccination rates on measles outbreak, this research examines several counterfactual scenarios in pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 era. An agent-based modeling framework is used to simulate the spread of measles on a synthetic yet realistic social network of Virginia. The change in vulnerability of various communities to measles due to reduced MMR rate is analyzed. Results Results show that a decrease in vaccination rate $$(\mathrm{\alpha })$$ ( α ) has a highly non-linear effect on the number of measles cases and this effect grows exponentially beyond a threshold $$(\mathrm{\alpha })$$ ( α ) . At low vaccination rates, faster isolation of cases and higher compliance to home-isolation are not enough to control the outbreak. The overall impact on urban and rural counties is proportional to their population size but the younger children, African Americans and American Indians are disproportionately infected and hence are more vulnerable to the reduction in the vaccination rate. Conclusions At low vaccination rates, broader interventions are needed to control the outbreak. Identifying the cause of the decline in vaccination rates (e.g., low income) can help design targeted interventions which can dampen the disproportional impact on more vulnerable populations and reduce disparities in health. Per capita burden of the potential measles resurgence is equivalent in the rural and the urban communities and hence proportionally equitable public health resources should be allocated to rural regions.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-022-07703-wMMR vaccinationHome isolationSocial networkNetwork epidemiologyVulnerable populationsHealth equity |
| spellingShingle | Mugdha Thakur Richard Zhou Mukundan Mohan Achla Marathe Jiangzhuo Chen Stefan Hoops Dustin Machi Bryan Lewis Anil Vullikanti COVID’s collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States BMC Infectious Diseases MMR vaccination Home isolation Social network Network epidemiology Vulnerable populations Health equity |
| title | COVID’s collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States |
| title_full | COVID’s collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States |
| title_fullStr | COVID’s collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | COVID’s collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States |
| title_short | COVID’s collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States |
| title_sort | covid s collateral damage likelihood of measles resurgence in the united states |
| topic | MMR vaccination Home isolation Social network Network epidemiology Vulnerable populations Health equity |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-022-07703-w |
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