Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios
Study region: In this study, three provinces in Northeast Vietnam including Bac Kan, Thai Nguyen, and Tuyen Quang are examined to determine the precipitation variation characteristics. Study focus: The average yearly temperature during the last two decades in Northeast Vietnam has increased by 0.72 ...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2019-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581818302301 |
| _version_ | 1811210460286943232 |
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| author | Le Thi Thanh Thuy Seiki Kawagoe Ranjan Sarukkalige |
| author_facet | Le Thi Thanh Thuy Seiki Kawagoe Ranjan Sarukkalige |
| author_sort | Le Thi Thanh Thuy |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: In this study, three provinces in Northeast Vietnam including Bac Kan, Thai Nguyen, and Tuyen Quang are examined to determine the precipitation variation characteristics. Study focus: The average yearly temperature during the last two decades in Northeast Vietnam has increased by 0.72 °C when compared to the period 1962–1990. The Clausius Clapeyron (CC) relation indicates that a warmer atmosphere can result in higher moisture-holding capacity; hence, there is the possibility of increased extreme rainfall with respect to the rise in temperature. We evaluate the relationship between the average 24-hour temperature and rainfall extremes using the binning method. The estimation of the 24-hour probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is then implemented based on the moisture maximization and Hershfield statistical methods. New hydrological insights for the region: The 99.9th percentiles of 24-hour precipitation are close to the super CC scaling up to peak points of 22.6–25.6 °C and decrease at higher temperatures. The Hershfield method produces 24-hour PMP results ranging from 232 mm to 895 mm. PMP outputs using the moisture maximization method based on the 100-year dew point are higher than those results generated from the statistical method except for Chiem Hoa station. Considering possible changes in future relative humidity under a warming climate from GCMs and RCM projections for two RCP scenarios, RCP 8.5 indicates the possible rise in probable extreme precipitation. Keywords: PMP, Clausius clapeyron, RCP, GCM, Northeast Vietnam |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T04:54:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a193ce9d69ff455d91f1e532efd2067e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T04:54:57Z |
| publishDate | 2019-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-a193ce9d69ff455d91f1e532efd2067e2022-12-22T03:47:09ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182019-06-0123Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenariosLe Thi Thanh Thuy0Seiki Kawagoe1Ranjan Sarukkalige2Faculty of Symbiotic Systems Science, Fukushima University, 1 Kanayagawa, Fukushima city, Fukushima, 960-1296, Japan; Faculty of Water Resources Engineering, Thuy Loi University, 175 Tay Son, Dong Da, Hanoi, Viet NamFaculty of Symbiotic Systems Science, Fukushima University, 1 Kanayagawa, Fukushima city, Fukushima, 960-1296, Japan; Corresponding author.School of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, Curtin University, Kent Street, Bentley, Perth, Western Australia, 6102, AustraliaStudy region: In this study, three provinces in Northeast Vietnam including Bac Kan, Thai Nguyen, and Tuyen Quang are examined to determine the precipitation variation characteristics. Study focus: The average yearly temperature during the last two decades in Northeast Vietnam has increased by 0.72 °C when compared to the period 1962–1990. The Clausius Clapeyron (CC) relation indicates that a warmer atmosphere can result in higher moisture-holding capacity; hence, there is the possibility of increased extreme rainfall with respect to the rise in temperature. We evaluate the relationship between the average 24-hour temperature and rainfall extremes using the binning method. The estimation of the 24-hour probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is then implemented based on the moisture maximization and Hershfield statistical methods. New hydrological insights for the region: The 99.9th percentiles of 24-hour precipitation are close to the super CC scaling up to peak points of 22.6–25.6 °C and decrease at higher temperatures. The Hershfield method produces 24-hour PMP results ranging from 232 mm to 895 mm. PMP outputs using the moisture maximization method based on the 100-year dew point are higher than those results generated from the statistical method except for Chiem Hoa station. Considering possible changes in future relative humidity under a warming climate from GCMs and RCM projections for two RCP scenarios, RCP 8.5 indicates the possible rise in probable extreme precipitation. Keywords: PMP, Clausius clapeyron, RCP, GCM, Northeast Vietnamhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581818302301 |
| spellingShingle | Le Thi Thanh Thuy Seiki Kawagoe Ranjan Sarukkalige Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| title | Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios |
| title_full | Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios |
| title_short | Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios |
| title_sort | estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in northeast vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581818302301 |
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