Flood-Related Federally Declared Disaster Events and Community Functioning (COPEWELL)
Objective: Understanding long-term disaster effects is key to building theories of recovery and informing policymaking. Findings regarding long-term recovery are inconsistent, with some scholars finding that disasters have little long-term impact, and others asserting otherwise. To assist in resolvi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Climate |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/10/11/159 |
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| author | Norma F. Kanarek Qi Wang Tak Igusa Tara Kirk Sell Zachary Anthony Cox James M. Kendra Jonathan Links |
| author_facet | Norma F. Kanarek Qi Wang Tak Igusa Tara Kirk Sell Zachary Anthony Cox James M. Kendra Jonathan Links |
| author_sort | Norma F. Kanarek |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective: Understanding long-term disaster effects is key to building theories of recovery and informing policymaking. Findings regarding long-term recovery are inconsistent, with some scholars finding that disasters have little long-term impact, and others asserting otherwise. To assist in resolving this discord, we apply a conceptual framework and computational model of community resilience (“COPEWELL”) that places community functioning (CF) at the center of evaluating the effects of disaster over time. Using flooding as a disaster type, we hypothesize a change in baseline CF trend when a flood-related federally declared disaster event occurs. Methods: We used county-level flood-related federally declared disaster events (2010–2014) and selected population demographics to study their effects on annual CF trends among United States counties (N = 3141). Results: In multivariate analysis of baseline CF, we found a significant negative relationship of prior five-year flood status, federal regions relative to the Northeast (Region I), lower total earnings, and greater population size. Annual CF trend was 0.09% (95%CI: 0.01%–0.16%). In multivariate analysis, significant predictors included baseline CF (β = −0.0178, −0.0047–−0.0309), any concurrent flood-related federally declared disaster events (−0.0024, −0.0040–−0.0008), ten-year prior flood events (−0.0017, −0.0034–−0.0000) and concurrent population change (−0.0186, −0.0338–−0.0035). Conclusions: Recent floods depress baseline CF, while concurrent and ten-year-ago floods depress trend in CF. Resilience may potentially be modified by raising baseline CF and maintaining population over time. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T19:10:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a1b6d0d35f9046b2bbe57f7858728a32 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2225-1154 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T19:10:34Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-a1b6d0d35f9046b2bbe57f7858728a322023-11-24T04:13:24ZengMDPI AGClimate2225-11542022-10-01101115910.3390/cli10110159Flood-Related Federally Declared Disaster Events and Community Functioning (COPEWELL)Norma F. Kanarek0Qi Wang1Tak Igusa2Tara Kirk Sell3Zachary Anthony Cox4James M. Kendra5Jonathan Links6Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USADepartment of Civil and Systems Engineering, G.W.C Whiting School of Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USADepartment of Civil and Systems Engineering, G.W.C Whiting School of Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USADepartment of Environmental Health and Engineering, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USAJoseph R. Biden, Jr., School of Public Policy and Administration, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USAJoseph R. Biden, Jr., School of Public Policy and Administration, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USADepartment of Environmental Health and Engineering, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USAObjective: Understanding long-term disaster effects is key to building theories of recovery and informing policymaking. Findings regarding long-term recovery are inconsistent, with some scholars finding that disasters have little long-term impact, and others asserting otherwise. To assist in resolving this discord, we apply a conceptual framework and computational model of community resilience (“COPEWELL”) that places community functioning (CF) at the center of evaluating the effects of disaster over time. Using flooding as a disaster type, we hypothesize a change in baseline CF trend when a flood-related federally declared disaster event occurs. Methods: We used county-level flood-related federally declared disaster events (2010–2014) and selected population demographics to study their effects on annual CF trends among United States counties (N = 3141). Results: In multivariate analysis of baseline CF, we found a significant negative relationship of prior five-year flood status, federal regions relative to the Northeast (Region I), lower total earnings, and greater population size. Annual CF trend was 0.09% (95%CI: 0.01%–0.16%). In multivariate analysis, significant predictors included baseline CF (β = −0.0178, −0.0047–−0.0309), any concurrent flood-related federally declared disaster events (−0.0024, −0.0040–−0.0008), ten-year prior flood events (−0.0017, −0.0034–−0.0000) and concurrent population change (−0.0186, −0.0338–−0.0035). Conclusions: Recent floods depress baseline CF, while concurrent and ten-year-ago floods depress trend in CF. Resilience may potentially be modified by raising baseline CF and maintaining population over time.https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/10/11/159disasterfloodhurricanescommunity functioningrecessionpopulation change |
| spellingShingle | Norma F. Kanarek Qi Wang Tak Igusa Tara Kirk Sell Zachary Anthony Cox James M. Kendra Jonathan Links Flood-Related Federally Declared Disaster Events and Community Functioning (COPEWELL) Climate disaster flood hurricanes community functioning recession population change |
| title | Flood-Related Federally Declared Disaster Events and Community Functioning (COPEWELL) |
| title_full | Flood-Related Federally Declared Disaster Events and Community Functioning (COPEWELL) |
| title_fullStr | Flood-Related Federally Declared Disaster Events and Community Functioning (COPEWELL) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Flood-Related Federally Declared Disaster Events and Community Functioning (COPEWELL) |
| title_short | Flood-Related Federally Declared Disaster Events and Community Functioning (COPEWELL) |
| title_sort | flood related federally declared disaster events and community functioning copewell |
| topic | disaster flood hurricanes community functioning recession population change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/10/11/159 |
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