Assessment of Possible Production Leakage from Implementing the EU Biodiversity Strategy on Forest Product Markets
The EU Biodiversity Strategy (EUBDS) for 2030 aims at regaining biodiversity by strengthening the protection of nature in the European Union. This study models and analyses possible impacts of the EUBDS on the production and trade of forest-based products in the EU and non-EU countries in two altern...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Forests |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/8/1225 |
| _version_ | 1797410240116817920 |
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| author | Franziska Schier Susanne Iost Björn Seintsch Holger Weimar Matthias Dieter |
| author_facet | Franziska Schier Susanne Iost Björn Seintsch Holger Weimar Matthias Dieter |
| author_sort | Franziska Schier |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The EU Biodiversity Strategy (EUBDS) for 2030 aims at regaining biodiversity by strengthening the protection of nature in the European Union. This study models and analyses possible impacts of the EUBDS on the production and trade of forest-based products in the EU and non-EU countries in two alternative scenarios. Implementing EUBDS measures would allow a maximum EU roundwood production of roughly 281 M m<sup>3</sup> in 2030 in the intensive and 490 M m<sup>3</sup> in the moderate scenario. Since in the reference scenario, the EU roundwood production amounts to 539 M m<sup>3</sup> in 2030, this represent a reduction of −48% and −9% in 2030, respectively. Until 2050, the production further decreases and accounts for 42% and 90% of the reference production. Globally, the EU roundwood production deficit is compensated partly (roughly between 50%–60%) by increasing production of roundwood in non-EU countries (e.g., USA, Russia, Canada, China and Brazil) whereas the remaining share of the EU production deficit is no longer produced and consumed worldwide. In the EU, reduced roundwood availability leads to a lower production of wood-based products, although, apparent consumption of wood-based products remains similar. This is mainly caused by significantly lower export volumes of wood-based products and, for some product groups, by significantly increased imports as well. This is partly due to unchanged assumptions regarding income and thus, demand patterns. However, on a global level, decreased production and consumption of wood-based products could lead to a growing use of non-bio-based resources to substitute wood-products. Our study also shows that the magnitude of effects strongly depends on how much the use of forest resources is actually restricted. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T04:27:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a1f095c8166f4c7d9b3e64de8ae9598b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4907 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T04:27:02Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forests |
| spelling | doaj.art-a1f095c8166f4c7d9b3e64de8ae9598b2023-12-03T13:39:57ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072022-08-01138122510.3390/f13081225Assessment of Possible Production Leakage from Implementing the EU Biodiversity Strategy on Forest Product MarketsFranziska Schier0Susanne Iost1Björn Seintsch2Holger Weimar3Matthias Dieter4Thünen Institute of Forestry, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg, GermanyThünen Institute of Forestry, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg, GermanyThünen Institute of Forestry, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg, GermanyThünen Institute of Forestry, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg, GermanyThünen Institute of Forestry, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21031 Hamburg, GermanyThe EU Biodiversity Strategy (EUBDS) for 2030 aims at regaining biodiversity by strengthening the protection of nature in the European Union. This study models and analyses possible impacts of the EUBDS on the production and trade of forest-based products in the EU and non-EU countries in two alternative scenarios. Implementing EUBDS measures would allow a maximum EU roundwood production of roughly 281 M m<sup>3</sup> in 2030 in the intensive and 490 M m<sup>3</sup> in the moderate scenario. Since in the reference scenario, the EU roundwood production amounts to 539 M m<sup>3</sup> in 2030, this represent a reduction of −48% and −9% in 2030, respectively. Until 2050, the production further decreases and accounts for 42% and 90% of the reference production. Globally, the EU roundwood production deficit is compensated partly (roughly between 50%–60%) by increasing production of roundwood in non-EU countries (e.g., USA, Russia, Canada, China and Brazil) whereas the remaining share of the EU production deficit is no longer produced and consumed worldwide. In the EU, reduced roundwood availability leads to a lower production of wood-based products, although, apparent consumption of wood-based products remains similar. This is mainly caused by significantly lower export volumes of wood-based products and, for some product groups, by significantly increased imports as well. This is partly due to unchanged assumptions regarding income and thus, demand patterns. However, on a global level, decreased production and consumption of wood-based products could lead to a growing use of non-bio-based resources to substitute wood-products. Our study also shows that the magnitude of effects strongly depends on how much the use of forest resources is actually restricted.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/8/1225production leakagebiodiversityEUforest sector modellingpolicyimpact assessment |
| spellingShingle | Franziska Schier Susanne Iost Björn Seintsch Holger Weimar Matthias Dieter Assessment of Possible Production Leakage from Implementing the EU Biodiversity Strategy on Forest Product Markets Forests production leakage biodiversity EU forest sector modelling policy impact assessment |
| title | Assessment of Possible Production Leakage from Implementing the EU Biodiversity Strategy on Forest Product Markets |
| title_full | Assessment of Possible Production Leakage from Implementing the EU Biodiversity Strategy on Forest Product Markets |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of Possible Production Leakage from Implementing the EU Biodiversity Strategy on Forest Product Markets |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of Possible Production Leakage from Implementing the EU Biodiversity Strategy on Forest Product Markets |
| title_short | Assessment of Possible Production Leakage from Implementing the EU Biodiversity Strategy on Forest Product Markets |
| title_sort | assessment of possible production leakage from implementing the eu biodiversity strategy on forest product markets |
| topic | production leakage biodiversity EU forest sector modelling policy impact assessment |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/8/1225 |
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