Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure
The occurrence of wintertime cold surges (CSs) over East Asia is largely controlled by the surface air temperature (SAT) distribution at high latitudes and thermal advection in the lower troposphere. The thermodynamic background state over northeastern Asia is associated with the strength of the Eas...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2018-06-01
|
| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/6/222 |
| _version_ | 1828775075932798976 |
|---|---|
| author | Jin-Woo Heo Chang-Hoi Ho Tae-Won Park Woosuk Choi Jee-Hoon Jeong Jinwon Kim |
| author_facet | Jin-Woo Heo Chang-Hoi Ho Tae-Won Park Woosuk Choi Jee-Hoon Jeong Jinwon Kim |
| author_sort | Jin-Woo Heo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The occurrence of wintertime cold surges (CSs) over East Asia is largely controlled by the surface air temperature (SAT) distribution at high latitudes and thermal advection in the lower troposphere. The thermodynamic background state over northeastern Asia is associated with the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon and the variation of Arctic Oscillation. This study assesses the importance of the SAT structure with thermal advection in determining the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia through the analysis of nine atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The historical simulations can reproduce the observed typical characteristics of CS development. On the basis of this model performance, ensemble-averaged future simulations under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 project a reduction in CS frequency by 1.1 yr−1 in the late 21st century (2065–2095) compared to the present-day period (1975–2005). The major reason for less frequent CSs in the future is the weakened cold advection, caused by notable SAT warming over the northern part of East Asia. These results suggest that changes in the meridional SAT structure and the associated changes in thermal advection would play a more substantial role than local warming in determining future changes in the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T15:32:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a2080053d5454a1ba7efe6db5c9384c8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T15:32:42Z |
| publishDate | 2018-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-a2080053d5454a1ba7efe6db5c9384c82022-12-22T01:00:01ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332018-06-019622210.3390/atmos9060222atmos9060222Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal StructureJin-Woo Heo0Chang-Hoi Ho1Tae-Won Park2Woosuk Choi3Jee-Hoon Jeong4Jinwon Kim5School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, KoreaSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, KoreaDepartment of Earth Science Education, Chonnam National University, Gwangju 61186, KoreaSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, KoreaDepartment of Oceanography, Chonnam National University, Gwangju 61186, KoreaClimate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju 63568, KoreaThe occurrence of wintertime cold surges (CSs) over East Asia is largely controlled by the surface air temperature (SAT) distribution at high latitudes and thermal advection in the lower troposphere. The thermodynamic background state over northeastern Asia is associated with the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon and the variation of Arctic Oscillation. This study assesses the importance of the SAT structure with thermal advection in determining the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia through the analysis of nine atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The historical simulations can reproduce the observed typical characteristics of CS development. On the basis of this model performance, ensemble-averaged future simulations under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 project a reduction in CS frequency by 1.1 yr−1 in the late 21st century (2065–2095) compared to the present-day period (1975–2005). The major reason for less frequent CSs in the future is the weakened cold advection, caused by notable SAT warming over the northern part of East Asia. These results suggest that changes in the meridional SAT structure and the associated changes in thermal advection would play a more substantial role than local warming in determining future changes in the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia.http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/6/222cold surgethermal advectionEast Asian winter monsoonArctic Oscillationmeridional surface air temperatureCoupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 |
| spellingShingle | Jin-Woo Heo Chang-Hoi Ho Tae-Won Park Woosuk Choi Jee-Hoon Jeong Jinwon Kim Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure Atmosphere cold surge thermal advection East Asian winter monsoon Arctic Oscillation meridional surface air temperature Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 |
| title | Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure |
| title_full | Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure |
| title_fullStr | Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure |
| title_short | Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure |
| title_sort | changes in cold surge occurrence over east asia in the future role of thermal structure |
| topic | cold surge thermal advection East Asian winter monsoon Arctic Oscillation meridional surface air temperature Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 |
| url | http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/6/222 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jinwooheo changesincoldsurgeoccurrenceovereastasiainthefutureroleofthermalstructure AT changhoiho changesincoldsurgeoccurrenceovereastasiainthefutureroleofthermalstructure AT taewonpark changesincoldsurgeoccurrenceovereastasiainthefutureroleofthermalstructure AT woosukchoi changesincoldsurgeoccurrenceovereastasiainthefutureroleofthermalstructure AT jeehoonjeong changesincoldsurgeoccurrenceovereastasiainthefutureroleofthermalstructure AT jinwonkim changesincoldsurgeoccurrenceovereastasiainthefutureroleofthermalstructure |