APPLICATION OF FUTURE STUDIES AND SCENARIO PLANNING MODELS IN EARTHQUAKE CRISIS RESPONSE PLANNING
Future studies and scenario planning models have been applied in this investigation to formulate a useful planning for earthquake crisis response in Boyer Ahmad County, Iran, located on active faults. The objective of this study is to evaluate the vulnerable areas of urban and rural settlements,...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
University of Bucharest
2021-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Urban and Regional Analysis |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.jurareview.ro/resources/pdf/volume_32_application_of_future_studies_and_scenario_planning_models_in_earthquake_crisis_response_planning_abstract.pdf |
| Summary: | Future studies and scenario planning models have been applied in this
investigation to formulate a useful planning for earthquake crisis response in Boyer
Ahmad County, Iran, located on active faults. The objective of this study is to evaluate
the vulnerable areas of urban and rural settlements, to identify the factors of casualties
and losses, and to formulate the most desirable scenario in order to increase the
resilience of the settlements in earthquake crisis. In this research, the vulnerable areas
were detected by using the spatial analysis in ArcGIS. Cross-impact analysis and
MICMAC were employed to identify the effective thrusters to reduce the financial losses
of the citizens. The most desirable scenario was formulated by the Morphol scenario
planning. The results indicated that about 27% of the city and 261 villages out of 977
are vulnerable to the risk. To reduce earthquake losses, a preventive scenario was
outlined in order to enhance the resilience of the settlements against the earthquake
crisis. |
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| ISSN: | 2067-4082 2068-9969 |