Bayesian Algorithms for Calculating Symbolic Rates of the Unreliability and Reliability of the Electric Supply

The report presents the use of Bayesian networks in the calculation of symbolic indicators of reliability and unreliability of the electric power supplying load point. The calculation of indicators of reliability is determined by the analytical dependencies. These dependencies are used to estimate:...

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Main Authors: Włodzimierz Korniluk, Piotr Petelski
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: ENERGA SA 2013-12-01
Series:Acta Energetica
Subjects:
Online Access:http://actaenergetica.org/en/articles/acta-energetica-no-042013/bayesian-algorithms-for-calculating-symbolic-rates-of-the-unreliability-and-reliability-of-the-electric-supply/
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author Włodzimierz Korniluk
Piotr Petelski
author_facet Włodzimierz Korniluk
Piotr Petelski
author_sort Włodzimierz Korniluk
collection DOAJ
description The report presents the use of Bayesian networks in the calculation of symbolic indicators of reliability and unreliability of the electric power supplying load point. The calculation of indicators of reliability is determined by the analytical dependencies. These dependencies are used to estimate: probability of up or down state of power system components supplying the load point; total probability distribution; conditional probabilities of the state power or lack of power appearance; the intensity of current interruptions and the average time of their duration; contributions of individual power system components in the service reliability. This report describes how to obtain these analytical dependencies, using the ultimate application for symbolic computations Mathematica (ver. 8). In this paper we will discuss the results of the symbolic computations for selected supply power system and methods for reducing the duration of symbolic computations of indicators for multiple-compound electrical power systems.
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spelling doaj.art-a243ae3065f54dfd894777b6621f98602022-12-22T02:03:36ZengENERGA SAActa Energetica2300-30222013-12-01174374310.12736/issn.2300-3022.2013404Bayesian Algorithms for Calculating Symbolic Rates of the Unreliability and Reliability of the Electric SupplyWłodzimierz Korniluk0Piotr Petelski1Białystok University of TechnologyBiałystok University of TechnologyThe report presents the use of Bayesian networks in the calculation of symbolic indicators of reliability and unreliability of the electric power supplying load point. The calculation of indicators of reliability is determined by the analytical dependencies. These dependencies are used to estimate: probability of up or down state of power system components supplying the load point; total probability distribution; conditional probabilities of the state power or lack of power appearance; the intensity of current interruptions and the average time of their duration; contributions of individual power system components in the service reliability. This report describes how to obtain these analytical dependencies, using the ultimate application for symbolic computations Mathematica (ver. 8). In this paper we will discuss the results of the symbolic computations for selected supply power system and methods for reducing the duration of symbolic computations of indicators for multiple-compound electrical power systems.http://actaenergetica.org/en/articles/acta-energetica-no-042013/bayesian-algorithms-for-calculating-symbolic-rates-of-the-unreliability-and-reliability-of-the-electric-supply/Bayesian networksindicators of reliabilitycalculation of symbolic
spellingShingle Włodzimierz Korniluk
Piotr Petelski
Bayesian Algorithms for Calculating Symbolic Rates of the Unreliability and Reliability of the Electric Supply
Acta Energetica
Bayesian networks
indicators of reliability
calculation of symbolic
title Bayesian Algorithms for Calculating Symbolic Rates of the Unreliability and Reliability of the Electric Supply
title_full Bayesian Algorithms for Calculating Symbolic Rates of the Unreliability and Reliability of the Electric Supply
title_fullStr Bayesian Algorithms for Calculating Symbolic Rates of the Unreliability and Reliability of the Electric Supply
title_full_unstemmed Bayesian Algorithms for Calculating Symbolic Rates of the Unreliability and Reliability of the Electric Supply
title_short Bayesian Algorithms for Calculating Symbolic Rates of the Unreliability and Reliability of the Electric Supply
title_sort bayesian algorithms for calculating symbolic rates of the unreliability and reliability of the electric supply
topic Bayesian networks
indicators of reliability
calculation of symbolic
url http://actaenergetica.org/en/articles/acta-energetica-no-042013/bayesian-algorithms-for-calculating-symbolic-rates-of-the-unreliability-and-reliability-of-the-electric-supply/
work_keys_str_mv AT włodzimierzkorniluk bayesianalgorithmsforcalculatingsymbolicratesoftheunreliabilityandreliabilityoftheelectricsupply
AT piotrpetelski bayesianalgorithmsforcalculatingsymbolicratesoftheunreliabilityandreliabilityoftheelectricsupply