The Approach to Defining Gravity Factors of Influence on the Foreign Trade Relations of Countries
The aim of the article is to determine the gravity factors of influence on the foreign trade relations of countries on the basis of the results of the comparative analysis of the classical specifications of the gravity model of foreign trade and the domestic experience in gravity modeling. It is sub...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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PH "INZHEK"
2017-03-01
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| Series: | Problemi Ekonomiki |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.problecon.com/export_pdf/problems-of-economy-2017-1_0-pages-26_31.pdf |
| Summary: | The aim of the article is to determine the gravity factors of influence on the foreign trade relations of countries on the basis of the results of the comparative analysis of the classical specifications of the gravity model of foreign trade and the domestic experience in gravity modeling. It is substantiated that a gravity model is one of the tools of economic and mathematical modeling, the use of which is characterized by a high level of adequacy and ensures prediction of foreign trade conditions. The main approaches to the definition of explanatory variables in the gravity equation of foreign trade are analyzed, and the author’s approach to the selection of the factors of the gravity model is proposed. As the first explanatory variable in the specification of the gravity model of foreign trade and the characteristics of the importance of economies of foreign trade partners, it is proposed to use the GDP calculated at purchasing power parity with the expected positive and statistically significant coefficient. As the second explanatory variable of the gravity equation of foreign trade, it is proposed to use a complex characteristic of the “trade distance” between countries, which reflects the current conditions of bilateral trade and depends on factors influencing the foreign trade turnover between countries — both directly (static proportionality of transport costs of geographical remoteness), and indirectly (dynamic institutional conditions of bilateral relations). The expediency of using the world average annual price for oil as the quantitative equivalent of the “trading distance” index is substantiated. Prospects for further research in this direction are identifying the form and force of influence of certain basic gravity variables on the foreign trade relations of certain partner countries and determining the appropriateness of including additional factors in the composition of the gravity equation of foreign trade. |
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| ISSN: | 2222-0712 2311-1186 |