Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America
Abstract Extreme cold events over North America such as the February 2021 cold wave have been suggested to be linked to stratospheric polar vortex stretching. However, it is not resolved how robustly and on which timescales the stratosphere contributes to the surface anomalies. Here we introduce a s...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00845-y |
| _version_ | 1827939722913120256 |
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| author | Xiuyuan Ding Gang Chen Pengfei Zhang Daniela I. V. Domeisen Clara Orbe |
| author_facet | Xiuyuan Ding Gang Chen Pengfei Zhang Daniela I. V. Domeisen Clara Orbe |
| author_sort | Xiuyuan Ding |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Extreme cold events over North America such as the February 2021 cold wave have been suggested to be linked to stratospheric polar vortex stretching. However, it is not resolved how robustly and on which timescales the stratosphere contributes to the surface anomalies. Here we introduce a simple measure of stratospheric wave activity for reanalyses and model outputs. In contrast to the well-known surface influences of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) that increase the intraseasonal persistence of weather regimes, we show that extreme stratospheric wave events are accompanied by intraseasonal fluctuations between warm and cold spells over North America in observations and climate models. Particularly, strong stratospheric wave events are followed by an increased risk of cold extremes over North America 5–25 days later. Idealized simulations in an atmospheric model with a well-resolved stratosphere corroborate that strong stratospheric wave activity precedes North American cold spells through vertical wave coupling. These findings potentially benefit the predictability of high-impact winter cold extremes over North America. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T08:58:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a277c6a9345441758e7aacb7f5f15f6e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T08:58:40Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj.art-a277c6a9345441758e7aacb7f5f15f6e2023-05-28T11:28:36ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352023-05-014111010.1038/s43247-023-00845-yExtreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North AmericaXiuyuan Ding0Gang Chen1Pengfei Zhang2Daniela I. V. Domeisen3Clara Orbe4Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of CaliforniaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of CaliforniaDepartment of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity of LausanneNASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesAbstract Extreme cold events over North America such as the February 2021 cold wave have been suggested to be linked to stratospheric polar vortex stretching. However, it is not resolved how robustly and on which timescales the stratosphere contributes to the surface anomalies. Here we introduce a simple measure of stratospheric wave activity for reanalyses and model outputs. In contrast to the well-known surface influences of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) that increase the intraseasonal persistence of weather regimes, we show that extreme stratospheric wave events are accompanied by intraseasonal fluctuations between warm and cold spells over North America in observations and climate models. Particularly, strong stratospheric wave events are followed by an increased risk of cold extremes over North America 5–25 days later. Idealized simulations in an atmospheric model with a well-resolved stratosphere corroborate that strong stratospheric wave activity precedes North American cold spells through vertical wave coupling. These findings potentially benefit the predictability of high-impact winter cold extremes over North America.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00845-y |
| spellingShingle | Xiuyuan Ding Gang Chen Pengfei Zhang Daniela I. V. Domeisen Clara Orbe Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America |
| title_full | Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America |
| title_fullStr | Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America |
| title_short | Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America |
| title_sort | extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over north america |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00845-y |
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