Arctic amplification has already peaked
It has been demonstrated that the Arctic has warmed at almost four times the global average rate since 1979, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. However, this rapid Arctic warming is tightly linked to the retreat and thinning of summer sea ice, and so may be expected to weaken as the Arctic...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace273 |
| _version_ | 1797747251018203136 |
|---|---|
| author | Richard Davy Philipp Griewank |
| author_facet | Richard Davy Philipp Griewank |
| author_sort | Richard Davy |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | It has been demonstrated that the Arctic has warmed at almost four times the global average rate since 1979, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. However, this rapid Arctic warming is tightly linked to the retreat and thinning of summer sea ice, and so may be expected to weaken as the Arctic transitions to seasonal ice cover. Here we show evidence from gridded observations and climate reanalysis that Arctic amplification peaked sometime in the early 2000s. This occurred concurrently with a maximum in the rate of loss of sea ice area, thickness, and volume. From CMIP6 projections and the CESM2 large ensemble we see that Arctic amplification is unlikely to be so high again at any future point in the 21st century except in the lowest emissions scenarios in which global temperatures stabilize while the Arctic continues to warm. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:49:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a27803c2ff1f48b4a6c15ef7a42058ad |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:49:08Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-a27803c2ff1f48b4a6c15ef7a42058ad2023-08-09T15:19:05ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118808400310.1088/1748-9326/ace273Arctic amplification has already peakedRichard Davy0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9639-5980Philipp Griewank1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0906-3553Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research , Bergen, NorwayInstitut für Meteorologie und Geophysik, Universität Wien , Vienna, AustriaIt has been demonstrated that the Arctic has warmed at almost four times the global average rate since 1979, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. However, this rapid Arctic warming is tightly linked to the retreat and thinning of summer sea ice, and so may be expected to weaken as the Arctic transitions to seasonal ice cover. Here we show evidence from gridded observations and climate reanalysis that Arctic amplification peaked sometime in the early 2000s. This occurred concurrently with a maximum in the rate of loss of sea ice area, thickness, and volume. From CMIP6 projections and the CESM2 large ensemble we see that Arctic amplification is unlikely to be so high again at any future point in the 21st century except in the lowest emissions scenarios in which global temperatures stabilize while the Arctic continues to warm.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace273Arcticclimate changeArctic warmingArctic amplificationsea ice |
| spellingShingle | Richard Davy Philipp Griewank Arctic amplification has already peaked Environmental Research Letters Arctic climate change Arctic warming Arctic amplification sea ice |
| title | Arctic amplification has already peaked |
| title_full | Arctic amplification has already peaked |
| title_fullStr | Arctic amplification has already peaked |
| title_full_unstemmed | Arctic amplification has already peaked |
| title_short | Arctic amplification has already peaked |
| title_sort | arctic amplification has already peaked |
| topic | Arctic climate change Arctic warming Arctic amplification sea ice |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace273 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT richarddavy arcticamplificationhasalreadypeaked AT philippgriewank arcticamplificationhasalreadypeaked |