The December 2021 Marshall Fire: Predictability and Gust Forecasts from Operational Models
We analyzed meteorological conditions that occurred during the December 2021 Boulder, Colorado, downslope windstorm. This event is of particular interest due to the ignition and spread of the Marshall Fire, which quickly became the most destructive wildfire in Colorado history. Observations indicate...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/5/765 |
| _version_ | 1797501656834768896 |
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| author | Robert G. Fovell Matthew J. Brewer Richard J. Garmong |
| author_facet | Robert G. Fovell Matthew J. Brewer Richard J. Garmong |
| author_sort | Robert G. Fovell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We analyzed meteorological conditions that occurred during the December 2021 Boulder, Colorado, downslope windstorm. This event is of particular interest due to the ignition and spread of the Marshall Fire, which quickly became the most destructive wildfire in Colorado history. Observations indicated a rapid onset of fast winds with gusts as high as 51 m/s that generally remained confined to the east-facing slopes and foothills of the Rockies, similar to previous Boulder windstorms. After about 12 h, the windstorm shifted into a second, less intense phase. Midtropospheric winds above northwestern Colorado weakened prior to the onset of strong surface winds and the event strength started waning as stronger winds moved back into the area. Forecasts from NOAA high-resolution operational models initialized more than a few hours prior to windstorm onset did not simulate the start time, development rate and/or maximum strength of the windstorm correctly, and day-ahead runs even failed to develop strong downslope windstorms at all. Idealized modeling confirmed that predictability was limited by errors on the synoptic scale affecting the midtropospheric wind conditions representing the Boulder windstorm’s inflow environment. Gust forecasts for this event were critically evaluated. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:21:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a2c0cf899fc04bef926fcb357e373e80 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:21:40Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-a2c0cf899fc04bef926fcb357e373e802023-11-23T10:02:31ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332022-05-0113576510.3390/atmos13050765The December 2021 Marshall Fire: Predictability and Gust Forecasts from Operational ModelsRobert G. Fovell0Matthew J. Brewer1Richard J. Garmong2Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12226, USADepartment of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12226, USADepartment of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12226, USAWe analyzed meteorological conditions that occurred during the December 2021 Boulder, Colorado, downslope windstorm. This event is of particular interest due to the ignition and spread of the Marshall Fire, which quickly became the most destructive wildfire in Colorado history. Observations indicated a rapid onset of fast winds with gusts as high as 51 m/s that generally remained confined to the east-facing slopes and foothills of the Rockies, similar to previous Boulder windstorms. After about 12 h, the windstorm shifted into a second, less intense phase. Midtropospheric winds above northwestern Colorado weakened prior to the onset of strong surface winds and the event strength started waning as stronger winds moved back into the area. Forecasts from NOAA high-resolution operational models initialized more than a few hours prior to windstorm onset did not simulate the start time, development rate and/or maximum strength of the windstorm correctly, and day-ahead runs even failed to develop strong downslope windstorms at all. Idealized modeling confirmed that predictability was limited by errors on the synoptic scale affecting the midtropospheric wind conditions representing the Boulder windstorm’s inflow environment. Gust forecasts for this event were critically evaluated.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/5/765downslope windstormswinds and gustswildfiremodel verificationpredictability |
| spellingShingle | Robert G. Fovell Matthew J. Brewer Richard J. Garmong The December 2021 Marshall Fire: Predictability and Gust Forecasts from Operational Models Atmosphere downslope windstorms winds and gusts wildfire model verification predictability |
| title | The December 2021 Marshall Fire: Predictability and Gust Forecasts from Operational Models |
| title_full | The December 2021 Marshall Fire: Predictability and Gust Forecasts from Operational Models |
| title_fullStr | The December 2021 Marshall Fire: Predictability and Gust Forecasts from Operational Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | The December 2021 Marshall Fire: Predictability and Gust Forecasts from Operational Models |
| title_short | The December 2021 Marshall Fire: Predictability and Gust Forecasts from Operational Models |
| title_sort | december 2021 marshall fire predictability and gust forecasts from operational models |
| topic | downslope windstorms winds and gusts wildfire model verification predictability |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/5/765 |
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