A CMIP6 assessment of the potential climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic energy and its atmospheric drivers in West Africa
Many solar photovoltaic (PV) energy projects are currently being planned and/or developed in West Africa to sustainably bridge the increasing gap between electricity demand and supply. However, climate change will likely affect solar power generation and the atmospheric factors that control it. For...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5a67 |
| _version_ | 1797747029790687232 |
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| author | Derrick Kwadwo Danso Sandrine Anquetin Arona Diedhiou Christophe Lavaysse Benoit Hingray Damien Raynaud Arsène Toka Kobea |
| author_facet | Derrick Kwadwo Danso Sandrine Anquetin Arona Diedhiou Christophe Lavaysse Benoit Hingray Damien Raynaud Arsène Toka Kobea |
| author_sort | Derrick Kwadwo Danso |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Many solar photovoltaic (PV) energy projects are currently being planned and/or developed in West Africa to sustainably bridge the increasing gap between electricity demand and supply. However, climate change will likely affect solar power generation and the atmospheric factors that control it. For the first time, the state-of-the-art CMIP climate models (CMIP6) are used to investigate the potential future evolution of solar power generation and its main atmospheric drivers in West Africa. A multi-model analyses carried out revealed a decrease of solar PV potential throughout West Africa in the 21st century, with an ensemble mean reduction reaching about 12% in southern parts of the region. In addition, the variability of future solar PV production is expected to increase with a higher frequency of lower production periods. The projected changes in the solar PV production and its variability are expected to be predominant in the June to August season. We found the decrease in the solar PV potential to be driven by a decrease of surface irradiance and an increase of near-surface air temperature. However, the decrease of the surface irradiance accounted for a substantially larger percentage of the projected solar PV potential. The decrease in surface irradiance was further linked to changes in both cloud cover and aerosol presence, although generally much more strongly for the former. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:46:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a2c29e23fc9d45769b278bef419a37ac |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:46:14Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-a2c29e23fc9d45769b278bef419a37ac2023-08-09T15:27:21ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117404401610.1088/1748-9326/ac5a67A CMIP6 assessment of the potential climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic energy and its atmospheric drivers in West AfricaDerrick Kwadwo Danso0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7141-7530Sandrine Anquetin1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5127-1650Arona Diedhiou2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3841-1027Christophe Lavaysse3Benoit Hingray4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6991-0975Damien Raynaud5Arsène Toka Kobea6Université Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, Grenoble-INP, IGE , 38000 Grenoble, France; Laboratoire des Sciences de la Matière de l’Environnement et de l’Energie Solaire (LASMES), Université Félix Houphoüet Boigny , Abidjan, Côte d’IvoireUniversité Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, Grenoble-INP, IGE , 38000 Grenoble, FranceUniversité Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, Grenoble-INP, IGE , 38000 Grenoble, France; Laboratoire des Sciences de la Matière de l’Environnement et de l’Energie Solaire (LASMES), Université Félix Houphoüet Boigny , Abidjan, Côte d’IvoireUniversité Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, Grenoble-INP, IGE , 38000 Grenoble, France; Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission , Ispra, 21027, ItalyUniversité Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, Grenoble-INP, IGE , 38000 Grenoble, FranceSteadysun , 73370 Le Bourget-du-Lac, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences de la Matière de l’Environnement et de l’Energie Solaire (LASMES), Université Félix Houphoüet Boigny , Abidjan, Côte d’IvoireMany solar photovoltaic (PV) energy projects are currently being planned and/or developed in West Africa to sustainably bridge the increasing gap between electricity demand and supply. However, climate change will likely affect solar power generation and the atmospheric factors that control it. For the first time, the state-of-the-art CMIP climate models (CMIP6) are used to investigate the potential future evolution of solar power generation and its main atmospheric drivers in West Africa. A multi-model analyses carried out revealed a decrease of solar PV potential throughout West Africa in the 21st century, with an ensemble mean reduction reaching about 12% in southern parts of the region. In addition, the variability of future solar PV production is expected to increase with a higher frequency of lower production periods. The projected changes in the solar PV production and its variability are expected to be predominant in the June to August season. We found the decrease in the solar PV potential to be driven by a decrease of surface irradiance and an increase of near-surface air temperature. However, the decrease of the surface irradiance accounted for a substantially larger percentage of the projected solar PV potential. The decrease in surface irradiance was further linked to changes in both cloud cover and aerosol presence, although generally much more strongly for the former.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5a67solar photovoltaic powerCMIP6projected changessurface irradianceair temperatureWest Africa |
| spellingShingle | Derrick Kwadwo Danso Sandrine Anquetin Arona Diedhiou Christophe Lavaysse Benoit Hingray Damien Raynaud Arsène Toka Kobea A CMIP6 assessment of the potential climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic energy and its atmospheric drivers in West Africa Environmental Research Letters solar photovoltaic power CMIP6 projected changes surface irradiance air temperature West Africa |
| title | A CMIP6 assessment of the potential climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic energy and its atmospheric drivers in West Africa |
| title_full | A CMIP6 assessment of the potential climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic energy and its atmospheric drivers in West Africa |
| title_fullStr | A CMIP6 assessment of the potential climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic energy and its atmospheric drivers in West Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | A CMIP6 assessment of the potential climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic energy and its atmospheric drivers in West Africa |
| title_short | A CMIP6 assessment of the potential climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic energy and its atmospheric drivers in West Africa |
| title_sort | cmip6 assessment of the potential climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic energy and its atmospheric drivers in west africa |
| topic | solar photovoltaic power CMIP6 projected changes surface irradiance air temperature West Africa |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5a67 |
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