Precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island records
Some of the most damaging impacts of climate change are a consequence of changes to the global water cycle. Atmospheric warming causes the water cycle to intensify, increasing both atmospheric water vapor concentrations and global precipitation and enhancing existing patterns of precipitation minus...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2016-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074024 |
| _version_ | 1797748575885590528 |
|---|---|
| author | D Polson G C Hegerl S Solomon |
| author_facet | D Polson G C Hegerl S Solomon |
| author_sort | D Polson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Some of the most damaging impacts of climate change are a consequence of changes to the global water cycle. Atmospheric warming causes the water cycle to intensify, increasing both atmospheric water vapor concentrations and global precipitation and enhancing existing patterns of precipitation minus evaporation ( P − E ). This relationship between temperature and precipitation therefore makes understanding how precipitation has changed with global temperatures in the past crucial for projecting changes with future warming. In situ observations cannot readily estimate global precipitation sensitivity to temperature (d P /d T ), as land precipitation changes are affected by water limitation. Satellite observations of precipitation over ocean are only available after 1979, but studies based on them suggest a precipitation sensitivity over wet tropical (30N–30S) oceans that exceeds the Clausius–Clapeyron value. Here, we determine for the first time precipitation sensitivity using longer (1930–2005), island-based in situ observations to estimate d P /d T over islands. The records show a robust pattern of increasing precipitation in the tropics and decreasing precipitation in the subtropics, as predicted from physical arguments, and heavy precipitation shows a stronger sensitivity than mean precipitation over many islands. The pattern and magnitude of island-based d P /d T agree with climate models if masked to island locations, supporting model predictions of future changes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:06:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a2cf31a5c194448caf5bf87c40f9f669 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:06:46Z |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-a2cf31a5c194448caf5bf87c40f9f6692023-08-09T14:19:37ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262016-01-0111707402410.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074024Precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island recordsD Polson0G C Hegerl1S Solomon2School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, UKSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, UKDepartment of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cambridge, Massachusetts, USASome of the most damaging impacts of climate change are a consequence of changes to the global water cycle. Atmospheric warming causes the water cycle to intensify, increasing both atmospheric water vapor concentrations and global precipitation and enhancing existing patterns of precipitation minus evaporation ( P − E ). This relationship between temperature and precipitation therefore makes understanding how precipitation has changed with global temperatures in the past crucial for projecting changes with future warming. In situ observations cannot readily estimate global precipitation sensitivity to temperature (d P /d T ), as land precipitation changes are affected by water limitation. Satellite observations of precipitation over ocean are only available after 1979, but studies based on them suggest a precipitation sensitivity over wet tropical (30N–30S) oceans that exceeds the Clausius–Clapeyron value. Here, we determine for the first time precipitation sensitivity using longer (1930–2005), island-based in situ observations to estimate d P /d T over islands. The records show a robust pattern of increasing precipitation in the tropics and decreasing precipitation in the subtropics, as predicted from physical arguments, and heavy precipitation shows a stronger sensitivity than mean precipitation over many islands. The pattern and magnitude of island-based d P /d T agree with climate models if masked to island locations, supporting model predictions of future changes.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074024precipitationislandsclimate modelsprecipitation sensitivity to temperature |
| spellingShingle | D Polson G C Hegerl S Solomon Precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island records Environmental Research Letters precipitation islands climate models precipitation sensitivity to temperature |
| title | Precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island records |
| title_full | Precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island records |
| title_fullStr | Precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island records |
| title_full_unstemmed | Precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island records |
| title_short | Precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island records |
| title_sort | precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island records |
| topic | precipitation islands climate models precipitation sensitivity to temperature |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074024 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dpolson precipitationsensitivitytowarmingestimatedfromlongislandrecords AT gchegerl precipitationsensitivitytowarmingestimatedfromlongislandrecords AT ssolomon precipitationsensitivitytowarmingestimatedfromlongislandrecords |