Development and Validation of Decision Rules Models to Stratify Coronary Artery Disease, Diabetes, and Hypertension Risk in Preventive Care: Cohort Study of Returning UK Biobank Participants
Many predictive models exist that predict risk of common cardiometabolic conditions. However, a vast majority of these models do not include genetic risk scores and do not distinguish between clinical risk requiring medical or pharmacological interventions and pre-clinical risk, where lifestyle inte...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Personalized Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4426/11/12/1322 |
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| author | José Castela Forte Pytrik Folkertsma Rahul Gannamani Sridhar Kumaraswamy Sarah Mount Tom J. de Koning Sipko van Dam Bruce H. R. Wolffenbuttel |
| author_facet | José Castela Forte Pytrik Folkertsma Rahul Gannamani Sridhar Kumaraswamy Sarah Mount Tom J. de Koning Sipko van Dam Bruce H. R. Wolffenbuttel |
| author_sort | José Castela Forte |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Many predictive models exist that predict risk of common cardiometabolic conditions. However, a vast majority of these models do not include genetic risk scores and do not distinguish between clinical risk requiring medical or pharmacological interventions and pre-clinical risk, where lifestyle interventions could be first-choice therapy. In this study, we developed, validated, and compared the performance of three decision rule algorithms including biomarkers, physical measurements, and genetic risk scores for incident coronary artery disease (CAD), diabetes (T2D), and hypertension against commonly used clinical risk scores in 60,782 UK Biobank participants. The rules models were tested for an association with incident CAD, T2D, and hypertension, and hazard ratios (with 95% confidence interval) were calculated from survival models. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and Net Reclassification Index (NRI). The higher risk group in the decision rules model had a 40-, 40.9-, and 21.6-fold increased risk of CAD, T2D, and hypertension, respectively (<i>p</i> < 0.001 for all). Risk increased significantly between the three strata for all three conditions (<i>p</i> < 0.05). Based on genetic risk alone, we identified not only a high-risk group, but also a group at elevated risk for all health conditions. These decision rule models comprising blood biomarkers, physical measurements, and polygenic risk scores moderately improve commonly used clinical risk scores at identifying individuals likely to benefit from lifestyle intervention for three of the most common lifestyle-related chronic health conditions. Their utility as part of digital data or digital therapeutics platforms to support the implementation of lifestyle interventions in preventive and primary care should be further validated. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:46:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a305a00996a745d284ee81eb869ed41e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2075-4426 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:46:06Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Personalized Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-a305a00996a745d284ee81eb869ed41e2023-11-23T09:07:55ZengMDPI AGJournal of Personalized Medicine2075-44262021-12-011112132210.3390/jpm11121322Development and Validation of Decision Rules Models to Stratify Coronary Artery Disease, Diabetes, and Hypertension Risk in Preventive Care: Cohort Study of Returning UK Biobank ParticipantsJosé Castela Forte0Pytrik Folkertsma1Rahul Gannamani2Sridhar Kumaraswamy3Sarah Mount4Tom J. de Koning5Sipko van Dam6Bruce H. R. Wolffenbuttel7Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmacology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713 GZ Groningen, The NetherlandsAncora Health B.V., Herestraat 106, 9711 LM Groningen, The NetherlandsAncora Health B.V., Herestraat 106, 9711 LM Groningen, The NetherlandsAncora Health B.V., Herestraat 106, 9711 LM Groningen, The NetherlandsAncora Health B.V., Herestraat 106, 9711 LM Groningen, The NetherlandsDepartment of Neurology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713 GZ Groningen, The NetherlandsAncora Health B.V., Herestraat 106, 9711 LM Groningen, The NetherlandsDepartment of Endocrinology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713 GZ Groningen, The NetherlandsMany predictive models exist that predict risk of common cardiometabolic conditions. However, a vast majority of these models do not include genetic risk scores and do not distinguish between clinical risk requiring medical or pharmacological interventions and pre-clinical risk, where lifestyle interventions could be first-choice therapy. In this study, we developed, validated, and compared the performance of three decision rule algorithms including biomarkers, physical measurements, and genetic risk scores for incident coronary artery disease (CAD), diabetes (T2D), and hypertension against commonly used clinical risk scores in 60,782 UK Biobank participants. The rules models were tested for an association with incident CAD, T2D, and hypertension, and hazard ratios (with 95% confidence interval) were calculated from survival models. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and Net Reclassification Index (NRI). The higher risk group in the decision rules model had a 40-, 40.9-, and 21.6-fold increased risk of CAD, T2D, and hypertension, respectively (<i>p</i> < 0.001 for all). Risk increased significantly between the three strata for all three conditions (<i>p</i> < 0.05). Based on genetic risk alone, we identified not only a high-risk group, but also a group at elevated risk for all health conditions. These decision rule models comprising blood biomarkers, physical measurements, and polygenic risk scores moderately improve commonly used clinical risk scores at identifying individuals likely to benefit from lifestyle intervention for three of the most common lifestyle-related chronic health conditions. Their utility as part of digital data or digital therapeutics platforms to support the implementation of lifestyle interventions in preventive and primary care should be further validated.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4426/11/12/1322coronary artery diseasehypertensiondiabetespreventive medicinerisk stratification |
| spellingShingle | José Castela Forte Pytrik Folkertsma Rahul Gannamani Sridhar Kumaraswamy Sarah Mount Tom J. de Koning Sipko van Dam Bruce H. R. Wolffenbuttel Development and Validation of Decision Rules Models to Stratify Coronary Artery Disease, Diabetes, and Hypertension Risk in Preventive Care: Cohort Study of Returning UK Biobank Participants Journal of Personalized Medicine coronary artery disease hypertension diabetes preventive medicine risk stratification |
| title | Development and Validation of Decision Rules Models to Stratify Coronary Artery Disease, Diabetes, and Hypertension Risk in Preventive Care: Cohort Study of Returning UK Biobank Participants |
| title_full | Development and Validation of Decision Rules Models to Stratify Coronary Artery Disease, Diabetes, and Hypertension Risk in Preventive Care: Cohort Study of Returning UK Biobank Participants |
| title_fullStr | Development and Validation of Decision Rules Models to Stratify Coronary Artery Disease, Diabetes, and Hypertension Risk in Preventive Care: Cohort Study of Returning UK Biobank Participants |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and Validation of Decision Rules Models to Stratify Coronary Artery Disease, Diabetes, and Hypertension Risk in Preventive Care: Cohort Study of Returning UK Biobank Participants |
| title_short | Development and Validation of Decision Rules Models to Stratify Coronary Artery Disease, Diabetes, and Hypertension Risk in Preventive Care: Cohort Study of Returning UK Biobank Participants |
| title_sort | development and validation of decision rules models to stratify coronary artery disease diabetes and hypertension risk in preventive care cohort study of returning uk biobank participants |
| topic | coronary artery disease hypertension diabetes preventive medicine risk stratification |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4426/11/12/1322 |
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