Seasonal Variation and Time Trend Analysis of Dog Bite Cases Attending the Anti Rabies Clinic in Delhi using ARIMA Model Forecasting
Introduction: Rabies is a fatal viral disease which is transmitted to humans through animal bites, most commonly via dogs. Fortunately, this disease is preventable through timely pre and postexposure vaccination. Aim: To study the seasonal predisposition and trend analysis of dog bite cases att...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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JCDR Research and Publications Private Limited
2021-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Clinical and Diagnostic Research |
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| Online Access: | https://jcdr.net/articles/PDF/15295/48745_CE[Ra1]_F[SK]_PF1(SG_SH_OM)_PN(KM).pdf |
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| author | Neha Taneja Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan SUJATA GUPTA Rajesh Gupta Nirupama Ay |
| author_facet | Neha Taneja Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan SUJATA GUPTA Rajesh Gupta Nirupama Ay |
| author_sort | Neha Taneja |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction: Rabies is a fatal viral disease which is transmitted
to humans through animal bites, most commonly via dogs.
Fortunately, this disease is preventable through timely pre and
postexposure vaccination.
Aim: To study the seasonal predisposition and trend analysis of
dog bite cases attending the anti rabies clinic.
Materials and Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional
study was conducted in the anti rabies clinic of a government
hospital in Delhi. Enumeration and inclusion of all dog bite
cases were made. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average (ARIMA) model was used to analyze the available data
of dog bites, from 2011 to 2018. In this study, the least Bayesian
Information Criterion (BIC) value was 12.2 and the corresponding
model is ARIMA (1, 0, 0) with the goodness of fit 2 (R2
=44%).
The model verification was done by noise residual check. The
model was applied for time series analysis and forecasting of
rabies cases in subsequent years.
Results: Total number of dog bite cases were 1,46,344 in last
eight years (2011-2018). The maximum number of cases being
27961 in the year 2014 followed by 22385 in the year 2013.
A seasonal predisposition of dog bite cases was seen for the
month of February to April. The trend analysis forecasting for
2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 predicted 11317, 11676,
10157, 8639 and 7120 cases, respectively.
Conclusion: Although the dog bite cases will be on a decline
in the future, adequate measures need to be strengthened
further to sensitise the community about rabies prevention
and timely reporting to anti rabies clinic for prophylaxis. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T13:48:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a30a50ca0bb846d7967a55e0e9cda65e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2249-782X 0973-709X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T13:48:54Z |
| publishDate | 2021-08-01 |
| publisher | JCDR Research and Publications Private Limited |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Clinical and Diagnostic Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-a30a50ca0bb846d7967a55e0e9cda65e2022-12-21T21:46:06ZengJCDR Research and Publications Private LimitedJournal of Clinical and Diagnostic Research2249-782X0973-709X2021-08-01158LC21LC2410.7860/JCDR/2021/48745.15295Seasonal Variation and Time Trend Analysis of Dog Bite Cases Attending the Anti Rabies Clinic in Delhi using ARIMA Model ForecastingNeha Taneja0Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan1SUJATA GUPTA2 Rajesh Gupta3 Nirupama Ay4Assistant Professor, Department of Community Medicine, Amity Institute of Public Health, Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India.Associate Professor, Department of Community Medicine, Chettinad Academy of Research and Education, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.Assistant Professor, Department of Community Medicine, Medical College and Hospital, Jammu and Kashmir, India.Medical Officer, Department of Public Health, North Delhi Municipal Corporation, North Delhi, New Delhi, India.Postgraduate Student, Department of Community Medicine, Chettinad Academy of Research and Education, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, IndiaIntroduction: Rabies is a fatal viral disease which is transmitted to humans through animal bites, most commonly via dogs. Fortunately, this disease is preventable through timely pre and postexposure vaccination. Aim: To study the seasonal predisposition and trend analysis of dog bite cases attending the anti rabies clinic. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted in the anti rabies clinic of a government hospital in Delhi. Enumeration and inclusion of all dog bite cases were made. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to analyze the available data of dog bites, from 2011 to 2018. In this study, the least Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) value was 12.2 and the corresponding model is ARIMA (1, 0, 0) with the goodness of fit 2 (R2 =44%). The model verification was done by noise residual check. The model was applied for time series analysis and forecasting of rabies cases in subsequent years. Results: Total number of dog bite cases were 1,46,344 in last eight years (2011-2018). The maximum number of cases being 27961 in the year 2014 followed by 22385 in the year 2013. A seasonal predisposition of dog bite cases was seen for the month of February to April. The trend analysis forecasting for 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 predicted 11317, 11676, 10157, 8639 and 7120 cases, respectively. Conclusion: Although the dog bite cases will be on a decline in the future, adequate measures need to be strengthened further to sensitise the community about rabies prevention and timely reporting to anti rabies clinic for prophylaxis.https://jcdr.net/articles/PDF/15295/48745_CE[Ra1]_F[SK]_PF1(SG_SH_OM)_PN(KM).pdfautoregressive integrated moving averagerabies preventionrabies reservoirvaccinationviral disease |
| spellingShingle | Neha Taneja Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan SUJATA GUPTA Rajesh Gupta Nirupama Ay Seasonal Variation and Time Trend Analysis of Dog Bite Cases Attending the Anti Rabies Clinic in Delhi using ARIMA Model Forecasting Journal of Clinical and Diagnostic Research autoregressive integrated moving average rabies prevention rabies reservoir vaccination viral disease |
| title | Seasonal Variation and Time Trend Analysis of Dog Bite Cases Attending the Anti Rabies Clinic in Delhi using ARIMA Model Forecasting |
| title_full | Seasonal Variation and Time Trend Analysis of Dog Bite Cases Attending the Anti Rabies Clinic in Delhi using ARIMA Model Forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Seasonal Variation and Time Trend Analysis of Dog Bite Cases Attending the Anti Rabies Clinic in Delhi using ARIMA Model Forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonal Variation and Time Trend Analysis of Dog Bite Cases Attending the Anti Rabies Clinic in Delhi using ARIMA Model Forecasting |
| title_short | Seasonal Variation and Time Trend Analysis of Dog Bite Cases Attending the Anti Rabies Clinic in Delhi using ARIMA Model Forecasting |
| title_sort | seasonal variation and time trend analysis of dog bite cases attending the anti rabies clinic in delhi using arima model forecasting |
| topic | autoregressive integrated moving average rabies prevention rabies reservoir vaccination viral disease |
| url | https://jcdr.net/articles/PDF/15295/48745_CE[Ra1]_F[SK]_PF1(SG_SH_OM)_PN(KM).pdf |
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