Can crude oil prices predict world tuna prices?
World tuna prices exhibit substantial fluctuations over time. We studied monthly tuna and preceding crude oil prices from 1986 to 2018, using linear regression models with autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) errors. Results indicated that a model including an increasing linear trend, the oil...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Prince of Songkla University
2020-12-01
|
| Series: | Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology (SJST) |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://rdo.psu.ac.th/sjstweb/journal/42-6/7.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818452854393798656 |
|---|---|
| author | Boonmee Lee Mayuening Eso Apiradee Lim Don McNeil |
| author_facet | Boonmee Lee Mayuening Eso Apiradee Lim Don McNeil |
| author_sort | Boonmee Lee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | World tuna prices exhibit substantial fluctuations over time. We studied monthly tuna and preceding crude oil prices
from 1986 to 2018, using linear regression models with autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) errors. Results indicated
that a model including an increasing linear trend, the oil price 21 months earlier, and a simple ARMA(1,1) error process could
predict the monthly tuna price reasonably well for recent years, but not prior to 1999. This suggests that oil prices began to affect
tuna process only after the global financial crisis, but it takes nearly two years before a change in the oil price affects the tuna
price. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T21:29:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a311bb43422a44dcbd8c7b43e4bbdfda |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0125-3395 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T21:29:42Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | Prince of Songkla University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology (SJST) |
| spelling | doaj.art-a311bb43422a44dcbd8c7b43e4bbdfda2022-12-21T22:46:43ZengPrince of Songkla UniversitySongklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology (SJST)0125-33952020-12-014261221122610.14456/sjst-psu.2020.158Can crude oil prices predict world tuna prices?Boonmee Lee0Mayuening Eso1Apiradee Lim2Don McNeil3Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science and Technology, Prince of Songkla University, Pattani Campus, Mueang, Pattani, 94000 ThailandDepartment of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science and Technology, Prince of Songkla University, Pattani Campus, Mueang, Pattani, 94000 ThailandDepartment of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science and Technology, Prince of Songkla University, Pattani Campus, Mueang, Pattani, 94000 ThailandDepartment of Statistics, Macquarie University, North Ryde, Northern Sydney, NSW 2109 AustraliaWorld tuna prices exhibit substantial fluctuations over time. We studied monthly tuna and preceding crude oil prices from 1986 to 2018, using linear regression models with autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) errors. Results indicated that a model including an increasing linear trend, the oil price 21 months earlier, and a simple ARMA(1,1) error process could predict the monthly tuna price reasonably well for recent years, but not prior to 1999. This suggests that oil prices began to affect tuna process only after the global financial crisis, but it takes nearly two years before a change in the oil price affects the tuna price.https://rdo.psu.ac.th/sjstweb/journal/42-6/7.pdftuna pricescrude oil pricesarma processregression with autocorrelated errorstime series forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Boonmee Lee Mayuening Eso Apiradee Lim Don McNeil Can crude oil prices predict world tuna prices? Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology (SJST) tuna prices crude oil prices arma process regression with autocorrelated errors time series forecasting |
| title | Can crude oil prices predict world tuna prices? |
| title_full | Can crude oil prices predict world tuna prices? |
| title_fullStr | Can crude oil prices predict world tuna prices? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Can crude oil prices predict world tuna prices? |
| title_short | Can crude oil prices predict world tuna prices? |
| title_sort | can crude oil prices predict world tuna prices |
| topic | tuna prices crude oil prices arma process regression with autocorrelated errors time series forecasting |
| url | https://rdo.psu.ac.th/sjstweb/journal/42-6/7.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT boonmeelee cancrudeoilpricespredictworldtunaprices AT mayueningeso cancrudeoilpricespredictworldtunaprices AT apiradeelim cancrudeoilpricespredictworldtunaprices AT donmcneil cancrudeoilpricespredictworldtunaprices |