Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom‐Up Inventories, Top‐Down Estimates, and Emission Scenarios
Abstract This study compares recent CO, NOx, NMVOC, SO2, BC, and OC anthropogenic emissions from several state‐of‐the‐art top‐down estimates to global and regional bottom‐up inventories and projections from five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in several regions. Results show that top‐down emis...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-08-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001520 |
| _version_ | 1828526208152764416 |
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| author | N. Elguindi C. Granier T. Stavrakou S. Darras M. Bauwens H. Cao C. Chen H. A. C. Denier van der Gon O. Dubovik T. M. Fu D. K. Henze Z. Jiang S. Keita J. J. P. Kuenen J. Kurokawa C. Liousse K. Miyazaki J.‐F. Müller Z. Qu F. Solmon B. Zheng |
| author_facet | N. Elguindi C. Granier T. Stavrakou S. Darras M. Bauwens H. Cao C. Chen H. A. C. Denier van der Gon O. Dubovik T. M. Fu D. K. Henze Z. Jiang S. Keita J. J. P. Kuenen J. Kurokawa C. Liousse K. Miyazaki J.‐F. Müller Z. Qu F. Solmon B. Zheng |
| author_sort | N. Elguindi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study compares recent CO, NOx, NMVOC, SO2, BC, and OC anthropogenic emissions from several state‐of‐the‐art top‐down estimates to global and regional bottom‐up inventories and projections from five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in several regions. Results show that top‐down emissions derived in several recent studies exhibit similar uncertainty as bottom‐up inventories in some regions for certain species and even less in the case of Chinese CO emissions. In general, the largest discrepancies are found outside of regions such as the United States, Europe, and Japan where the most accurate and detailed information on emissions is available. In some regions such as China, which has recently undergone dynamical economic growth and changes in air quality regulations, the top‐down estimates better capture recent emission trends than global bottom‐up inventories. These results show the potential of top‐down estimates to complement bottom‐up inventories and to aide in the development of emission scenarios, particularly in regions where global inventories lack the necessary up‐to‐date and accurate information regarding regional activity data and emission factors such as Africa and India. Areas of future work aimed at quantifying and reducing uncertainty are also highlighted. A regional comparison of recent CO and NOx trends in the five SSPs indicate that SSP126, a strong pollution control scenario, best represents the trends from the top‐down and regional bottom‐up inventories in the United States, Europe, and China, while SSP460, a low‐pollution control scenario, lies closest to actual trends in West Africa. This analysis can be useful for air quality forecasting and near‐future pollution control/mitigation policy studies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T21:19:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a32263a1daf042ef806d7bbd3322b576 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T21:19:20Z |
| publishDate | 2020-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-a32263a1daf042ef806d7bbd3322b5762022-12-22T00:50:30ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772020-08-0188n/an/a10.1029/2020EF001520Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom‐Up Inventories, Top‐Down Estimates, and Emission ScenariosN. Elguindi0C. Granier1T. Stavrakou2S. Darras3M. Bauwens4H. Cao5C. Chen6H. A. C. Denier van der Gon7O. Dubovik8T. M. Fu9D. K. Henze10Z. Jiang11S. Keita12J. J. P. Kuenen13J. Kurokawa14C. Liousse15K. Miyazaki16J.‐F. Müller17Z. Qu18F. Solmon19B. Zheng20Laboratoire d'Aérologie, CNRS Université de Toulouse Toulouse FranceLaboratoire d'Aérologie, CNRS Université de Toulouse Toulouse FranceDivision of Atmospheric Composition Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy Brussels BelgiumObservatoire Midi‐Pyrénées Toulouse FranceDivision of Atmospheric Composition Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy Brussels BelgiumDepartment of Mechanical Engineering (ME) University of Colorado Boulder Boulder CO USALaboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique (LOA), UMR8518 CNRS Université de Lille Lille FranceDepartment of Climate, Air and Sustainability TNO Utrecht The NetherlandsLaboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique (LOA), UMR8518 CNRS Université de Lille Lille FranceSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen ChinaDepartment of Mechanical Engineering University of Colorado Boulder Boulder CO USASchool of Earth and Space Sciences University of Science and Technology of China Hefei ChinaUFR sciences Biologiques University PGC Korhogo Côte d'IvoireDepartment of Climate, Air and Sustainability TNO Utrecht The NetherlandsAsia Center for Air Pollution Research Niigata JapanLaboratoire d'Aérologie, CNRS Université de Toulouse Toulouse FranceJet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USADivision of Atmospheric Composition Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy Brussels BelgiumDepartment of Mechanical Engineering University of Colorado Boulder Boulder CO USALaboratoire d'Aérologie, CNRS Université de Toulouse Toulouse FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ, UMR8212 Gif‐sur‐Yvette FranceAbstract This study compares recent CO, NOx, NMVOC, SO2, BC, and OC anthropogenic emissions from several state‐of‐the‐art top‐down estimates to global and regional bottom‐up inventories and projections from five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in several regions. Results show that top‐down emissions derived in several recent studies exhibit similar uncertainty as bottom‐up inventories in some regions for certain species and even less in the case of Chinese CO emissions. In general, the largest discrepancies are found outside of regions such as the United States, Europe, and Japan where the most accurate and detailed information on emissions is available. In some regions such as China, which has recently undergone dynamical economic growth and changes in air quality regulations, the top‐down estimates better capture recent emission trends than global bottom‐up inventories. These results show the potential of top‐down estimates to complement bottom‐up inventories and to aide in the development of emission scenarios, particularly in regions where global inventories lack the necessary up‐to‐date and accurate information regarding regional activity data and emission factors such as Africa and India. Areas of future work aimed at quantifying and reducing uncertainty are also highlighted. A regional comparison of recent CO and NOx trends in the five SSPs indicate that SSP126, a strong pollution control scenario, best represents the trends from the top‐down and regional bottom‐up inventories in the United States, Europe, and China, while SSP460, a low‐pollution control scenario, lies closest to actual trends in West Africa. This analysis can be useful for air quality forecasting and near‐future pollution control/mitigation policy studies.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001520Anthropogenic surface emissionsInverse ModellingShared Socioeconomic PathwaysAir quality modellingEmission inventories |
| spellingShingle | N. Elguindi C. Granier T. Stavrakou S. Darras M. Bauwens H. Cao C. Chen H. A. C. Denier van der Gon O. Dubovik T. M. Fu D. K. Henze Z. Jiang S. Keita J. J. P. Kuenen J. Kurokawa C. Liousse K. Miyazaki J.‐F. Müller Z. Qu F. Solmon B. Zheng Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom‐Up Inventories, Top‐Down Estimates, and Emission Scenarios Earth's Future Anthropogenic surface emissions Inverse Modelling Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Air quality modelling Emission inventories |
| title | Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom‐Up Inventories, Top‐Down Estimates, and Emission Scenarios |
| title_full | Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom‐Up Inventories, Top‐Down Estimates, and Emission Scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom‐Up Inventories, Top‐Down Estimates, and Emission Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom‐Up Inventories, Top‐Down Estimates, and Emission Scenarios |
| title_short | Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom‐Up Inventories, Top‐Down Estimates, and Emission Scenarios |
| title_sort | intercomparison of magnitudes and trends in anthropogenic surface emissions from bottom up inventories top down estimates and emission scenarios |
| topic | Anthropogenic surface emissions Inverse Modelling Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Air quality modelling Emission inventories |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001520 |
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