Changes detection of birds and fishes indicators using cross-impact matrix of KSIM in Hamoon international wetlands
In recent decades, the drastic ecological changes of Hamoon international wetlands placed them on the Montreal blacklist. Therefore, this study aimed to predict and validate the changes of birds and fishes indicators for the future of these wetlands. KSIM is the used method (Kane Simulation Techniqu...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
| Published: |
University of Sistan and Baluchestan
2021-05-01
|
| Series: | مخاطرات محیط طبیعی |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://jneh.usb.ac.ir/article_5683_7797156ad12011f771af1793f3313800.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797805239663853568 |
|---|---|
| author | Malihe Erfani Fatemeh Jahanishakib Masoud Rezaei |
| author_facet | Malihe Erfani Fatemeh Jahanishakib Masoud Rezaei |
| author_sort | Malihe Erfani |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent decades, the drastic ecological changes of Hamoon international wetlands placed them on the Montreal blacklist. Therefore, this study aimed to predict and validate the changes of birds and fishes indicators for the future of these wetlands. KSIM is the used method (Kane Simulation Technique to measure the impact of different variables ranged from +3 (severe and positive effect) to -3 (severe and negative effect); is evaluated by environmental experts. Due to the limitations of this method in multivariate analysis (because of the numbers and abundance of variables), the affecting factors on indicators have been grouped into four categories of economic, social, wildlife management and water resources management. To obtain probabilities of variables and predict the value of indicators in 2034, the mode of experts' ideas was used and future trends were simulated. Model validation was performed by field surveying in two consecutive years. The results of the KSIM simulation estimated that the bird and fish indicators will continue to decrease during the period 2004-2034; from 0.77 to 0.28 and 0.60 to 0.22, respectively. Based on the validation results, the validity of the model is acceptable, which can be confidently used based on the results obtained from the experts' ideas in the cross-effects matrix. This study showed that the KSIM method can properly investigates the interactions between system components and therefore is able to predict future conditions. Economic and social problems lead to the decline of fishes and birds indicators; and deterioration of the situation put relatively more pressure on resources. The downward trend in wildlife management and water resources is also a serious warning that must be considered in decision-making processes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:49:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a34a643c649a4eb99de513383754a949 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2676-4377 2676-4385 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:49:04Z |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | University of Sistan and Baluchestan |
| record_format | Article |
| series | مخاطرات محیط طبیعی |
| spelling | doaj.art-a34a643c649a4eb99de513383754a9492023-06-13T19:56:41ZfasUniversity of Sistan and Baluchestanمخاطرات محیط طبیعی2676-43772676-43852021-05-0110279110610.22111/jneh.2020.33333.16245683Changes detection of birds and fishes indicators using cross-impact matrix of KSIM in Hamoon international wetlandsMalihe Erfani0Fatemeh Jahanishakib1Masoud Rezaei2Assistant Professor of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran.Assistant Professor of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Birjand, Birjand, IranGraduate in Environmental Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Zabol, Zabol, IranIn recent decades, the drastic ecological changes of Hamoon international wetlands placed them on the Montreal blacklist. Therefore, this study aimed to predict and validate the changes of birds and fishes indicators for the future of these wetlands. KSIM is the used method (Kane Simulation Technique to measure the impact of different variables ranged from +3 (severe and positive effect) to -3 (severe and negative effect); is evaluated by environmental experts. Due to the limitations of this method in multivariate analysis (because of the numbers and abundance of variables), the affecting factors on indicators have been grouped into four categories of economic, social, wildlife management and water resources management. To obtain probabilities of variables and predict the value of indicators in 2034, the mode of experts' ideas was used and future trends were simulated. Model validation was performed by field surveying in two consecutive years. The results of the KSIM simulation estimated that the bird and fish indicators will continue to decrease during the period 2004-2034; from 0.77 to 0.28 and 0.60 to 0.22, respectively. Based on the validation results, the validity of the model is acceptable, which can be confidently used based on the results obtained from the experts' ideas in the cross-effects matrix. This study showed that the KSIM method can properly investigates the interactions between system components and therefore is able to predict future conditions. Economic and social problems lead to the decline of fishes and birds indicators; and deterioration of the situation put relatively more pressure on resources. The downward trend in wildlife management and water resources is also a serious warning that must be considered in decision-making processes.https://jneh.usb.ac.ir/article_5683_7797156ad12011f771af1793f3313800.pdfwetlandhamoonksimcross-impact simulationindicator |
| spellingShingle | Malihe Erfani Fatemeh Jahanishakib Masoud Rezaei Changes detection of birds and fishes indicators using cross-impact matrix of KSIM in Hamoon international wetlands مخاطرات محیط طبیعی wetland hamoon ksim cross-impact simulation indicator |
| title | Changes detection of birds and fishes indicators using cross-impact matrix of KSIM in Hamoon international wetlands |
| title_full | Changes detection of birds and fishes indicators using cross-impact matrix of KSIM in Hamoon international wetlands |
| title_fullStr | Changes detection of birds and fishes indicators using cross-impact matrix of KSIM in Hamoon international wetlands |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes detection of birds and fishes indicators using cross-impact matrix of KSIM in Hamoon international wetlands |
| title_short | Changes detection of birds and fishes indicators using cross-impact matrix of KSIM in Hamoon international wetlands |
| title_sort | changes detection of birds and fishes indicators using cross impact matrix of ksim in hamoon international wetlands |
| topic | wetland hamoon ksim cross-impact simulation indicator |
| url | https://jneh.usb.ac.ir/article_5683_7797156ad12011f771af1793f3313800.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT maliheerfani changesdetectionofbirdsandfishesindicatorsusingcrossimpactmatrixofksiminhamooninternationalwetlands AT fatemehjahanishakib changesdetectionofbirdsandfishesindicatorsusingcrossimpactmatrixofksiminhamooninternationalwetlands AT masoudrezaei changesdetectionofbirdsandfishesindicatorsusingcrossimpactmatrixofksiminhamooninternationalwetlands |