A nomogram for predicting adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma
Abstract Background Identifying risk factors for adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) can provide valuable insights into the necessity of surgical or non-surgical treatment. This study aims to develop a nomogram for predicting the probability of adverse pat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2024-02-01
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| Series: | BMC Cancer |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-024-12012-3 |
| _version_ | 1797274318730690560 |
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| author | Lei Gong Ping Li Jingjing Liu Yan Liu Xinghong Guo Weili Liang Bin Lv Peng Su Kai Liang |
| author_facet | Lei Gong Ping Li Jingjing Liu Yan Liu Xinghong Guo Weili Liang Bin Lv Peng Su Kai Liang |
| author_sort | Lei Gong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Identifying risk factors for adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) can provide valuable insights into the necessity of surgical or non-surgical treatment. This study aims to develop a nomogram for predicting the probability of adverse pathologic features in low-risk PTMC patients. Methods A total of 662 patients with low-risk PTMC who underwent thyroid surgery were retrospectively analyzed in Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from May 2019 to December 2021. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for adverse pathologic features, and a nomogram was constructed based on these factors. Results Most PTMC patients with these adverse pathologic features had tumor diameters greater than 0.6 cm (p < 0.05). Other factors (age, gender, family history of thyroid cancer, history of autoimmune thyroiditis, and BRAF V600E mutation) had no significant correlation with adverse pathologic features (p > 0.05 each). The nomogram was drawn to provide a quantitative and convenient tool for predicting the risk of adverse pathologic features based on age, gender, family history of thyroid cancer, autoimmune thyroiditis, tumor size, and BRAF V600E mutation in low-risk PTMC patients. The areas under curves (AUC) were 0.645 (95% CI 0.580–0.702). Additionally, decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curves were used to evaluate the clinical benefits of this nomogram, presenting a high net benefit. Conclusion Tumor size > 0.60 cm was identified as an independent risk factor for adverse pathologic features in low-risk PTMC patients. The nomogram had a high predictive value and consistency based on these factors. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T14:56:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a367c02544144bf6a55ae173ddae100f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2407 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T14:56:41Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Cancer |
| spelling | doaj.art-a367c02544144bf6a55ae173ddae100f2024-03-05T19:22:54ZengBMCBMC Cancer1471-24072024-02-0124111010.1186/s12885-024-12012-3A nomogram for predicting adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinomaLei Gong0Ping Li1Jingjing Liu2Yan Liu3Xinghong Guo4Weili Liang5Bin Lv6Peng Su7Kai Liang8Department of Endocrinology and Metabolic Diseases, Qilu Hospital of Shandong UniversityDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolic Diseases, Qilu Hospital of Shandong UniversityDepartment of Endocrinology, Ningyang Second People’s HospitalDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolic Diseases, Qilu Hospital of Shandong UniversityDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolic Diseases, Qilu Hospital of Shandong UniversityDepartment of Thyroid Surgery, General Surgery, Qilu Hospital of Shandong UniversityDepartment of Thyroid Surgery, General Surgery, Qilu Hospital of Shandong UniversityDepartment of Pathology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong UniversityDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolic Diseases, Qilu Hospital of Shandong UniversityAbstract Background Identifying risk factors for adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) can provide valuable insights into the necessity of surgical or non-surgical treatment. This study aims to develop a nomogram for predicting the probability of adverse pathologic features in low-risk PTMC patients. Methods A total of 662 patients with low-risk PTMC who underwent thyroid surgery were retrospectively analyzed in Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from May 2019 to December 2021. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for adverse pathologic features, and a nomogram was constructed based on these factors. Results Most PTMC patients with these adverse pathologic features had tumor diameters greater than 0.6 cm (p < 0.05). Other factors (age, gender, family history of thyroid cancer, history of autoimmune thyroiditis, and BRAF V600E mutation) had no significant correlation with adverse pathologic features (p > 0.05 each). The nomogram was drawn to provide a quantitative and convenient tool for predicting the risk of adverse pathologic features based on age, gender, family history of thyroid cancer, autoimmune thyroiditis, tumor size, and BRAF V600E mutation in low-risk PTMC patients. The areas under curves (AUC) were 0.645 (95% CI 0.580–0.702). Additionally, decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curves were used to evaluate the clinical benefits of this nomogram, presenting a high net benefit. Conclusion Tumor size > 0.60 cm was identified as an independent risk factor for adverse pathologic features in low-risk PTMC patients. The nomogram had a high predictive value and consistency based on these factors.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-024-12012-3Low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinomaNomogramAdverse pathologic features |
| spellingShingle | Lei Gong Ping Li Jingjing Liu Yan Liu Xinghong Guo Weili Liang Bin Lv Peng Su Kai Liang A nomogram for predicting adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma BMC Cancer Low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma Nomogram Adverse pathologic features |
| title | A nomogram for predicting adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma |
| title_full | A nomogram for predicting adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma |
| title_fullStr | A nomogram for predicting adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma |
| title_full_unstemmed | A nomogram for predicting adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma |
| title_short | A nomogram for predicting adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma |
| title_sort | nomogram for predicting adverse pathologic features in low risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma |
| topic | Low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma Nomogram Adverse pathologic features |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-024-12012-3 |
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