Assessing the groundwater deficit for agriculture requirements under precipitation change while achieving food and water security in the North China Plain
Groundwater resources are closely related to climate change. Evaluating the groundwater deficit and its variation characteristics under climate change is necessary to understand the risk associated with enhanced groundwater recovery solutions and to provide supporting information for choosing the be...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23011809 |
| _version_ | 1797655123087851520 |
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| author | Dianlong Wang Baozhong Zhang Huimin Feng Yuhong Fei Zheng Wei Fan Di Yanliang Tian |
| author_facet | Dianlong Wang Baozhong Zhang Huimin Feng Yuhong Fei Zheng Wei Fan Di Yanliang Tian |
| author_sort | Dianlong Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Groundwater resources are closely related to climate change. Evaluating the groundwater deficit and its variation characteristics under climate change is necessary to understand the risk associated with enhanced groundwater recovery solutions and to provide supporting information for choosing the best technology and risk-reducing measures to implement. In this study, by using the CROPWAT model and copula theory, (1) we developed a groundwater deficit index (Gsci) for agricultural requirements that assesses the risk to groundwater resources imposed by precipitation changes on the North China Plain (NCP), and the four grades of Gsci were high deficit, moderate deficit, low deficit, and no deficit. (2) We estimated Gsci on the NCP for the period 1971–2020 by applying the climatic, soil, crop phenological, and hydrogeology data to the developed index. (3) The occurrence probability of each Gsci grade was evaluated. In the years with abundant precipitation, the occurrence probabilities of no-deficit events were 1, 0, 0, 0, 0.36, 0.56, and 0 on the Yanshan Plain, Taihang-Hebei Plain, Taihang-Henan Plain, Central-Hebei Plain, Central-Shandong Plain, Central-Henan Plain, and Coastal Plain, respectively. (4) The effective precipitation threshold for the occurrence of each Gsci grade was calculated, and the effective precipitation thresholds for the occurrence of no-deficit events were 495 mm, 595 mm, 525 mm, 400 mm, 455 mm, and 555 mm on the Taihang-Hebei Plain, Taihang-Henan Plain, Central-Hebei Plain, Central-Henan Plain, Central-Shandong Plain, and Coastal Plain, respectively. Our findings are useful for assessing the impacts of precipitation changes on groundwater resources and provide a further basis for the design of groundwater resource management strategies with respect to climate change, especially in water‐limited arid agricultural regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T17:09:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a39914e196314536ad35c3bbe7dde557 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T17:09:35Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-a39914e196314536ad35c3bbe7dde5572023-10-20T06:38:50ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2023-11-01155111038Assessing the groundwater deficit for agriculture requirements under precipitation change while achieving food and water security in the North China PlainDianlong Wang0Baozhong Zhang1Huimin Feng2Yuhong Fei3Zheng Wei4Fan Di5Yanliang Tian6Taiyuan Institute of Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030012, China; China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100086, China; Corresponding authors at: Taiyuan Institute of Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030012, China (D. Wang).China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100086, ChinaShanxi Agricultural University, Shanxi, Taigu 030801, China; Corresponding authors at: Taiyuan Institute of Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030012, China (D. Wang).Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Hebei, Shijiazhuang 050800, ChinaChina Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100086, ChinaTaiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030002, ChinaInstitute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Hebei, Shijiazhuang 050800, ChinaGroundwater resources are closely related to climate change. Evaluating the groundwater deficit and its variation characteristics under climate change is necessary to understand the risk associated with enhanced groundwater recovery solutions and to provide supporting information for choosing the best technology and risk-reducing measures to implement. In this study, by using the CROPWAT model and copula theory, (1) we developed a groundwater deficit index (Gsci) for agricultural requirements that assesses the risk to groundwater resources imposed by precipitation changes on the North China Plain (NCP), and the four grades of Gsci were high deficit, moderate deficit, low deficit, and no deficit. (2) We estimated Gsci on the NCP for the period 1971–2020 by applying the climatic, soil, crop phenological, and hydrogeology data to the developed index. (3) The occurrence probability of each Gsci grade was evaluated. In the years with abundant precipitation, the occurrence probabilities of no-deficit events were 1, 0, 0, 0, 0.36, 0.56, and 0 on the Yanshan Plain, Taihang-Hebei Plain, Taihang-Henan Plain, Central-Hebei Plain, Central-Shandong Plain, Central-Henan Plain, and Coastal Plain, respectively. (4) The effective precipitation threshold for the occurrence of each Gsci grade was calculated, and the effective precipitation thresholds for the occurrence of no-deficit events were 495 mm, 595 mm, 525 mm, 400 mm, 455 mm, and 555 mm on the Taihang-Hebei Plain, Taihang-Henan Plain, Central-Hebei Plain, Central-Henan Plain, Central-Shandong Plain, and Coastal Plain, respectively. Our findings are useful for assessing the impacts of precipitation changes on groundwater resources and provide a further basis for the design of groundwater resource management strategies with respect to climate change, especially in water‐limited arid agricultural regions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23011809Precipitation changeAgricultural regionGroundwater deficitNorth China Plain |
| spellingShingle | Dianlong Wang Baozhong Zhang Huimin Feng Yuhong Fei Zheng Wei Fan Di Yanliang Tian Assessing the groundwater deficit for agriculture requirements under precipitation change while achieving food and water security in the North China Plain Ecological Indicators Precipitation change Agricultural region Groundwater deficit North China Plain |
| title | Assessing the groundwater deficit for agriculture requirements under precipitation change while achieving food and water security in the North China Plain |
| title_full | Assessing the groundwater deficit for agriculture requirements under precipitation change while achieving food and water security in the North China Plain |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the groundwater deficit for agriculture requirements under precipitation change while achieving food and water security in the North China Plain |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the groundwater deficit for agriculture requirements under precipitation change while achieving food and water security in the North China Plain |
| title_short | Assessing the groundwater deficit for agriculture requirements under precipitation change while achieving food and water security in the North China Plain |
| title_sort | assessing the groundwater deficit for agriculture requirements under precipitation change while achieving food and water security in the north china plain |
| topic | Precipitation change Agricultural region Groundwater deficit North China Plain |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23011809 |
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