Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of <i>Primula filchnerae</i>, an Endangered Herb in China
<i>Primula filchnerae</i>, an endangered plant endemic to China, has drawn people’s attention in recent years due to its ornamental value in flower. It was rarely recorded since being described in 1902, but it was rediscovered in 2009 and is now known from a limited number of sites locat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Plants |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/12/20/3561 |
| _version_ | 1797572479020957696 |
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| author | Xin Jiang Wan-Jing Liu Yan-Zhao Zhu Yu-Ting Cao Xiu-Min Yang Yao Geng Fu-Jiao Zhang Rui-Qi Sun Rui-Wen Jia Chun-Li Yan Yang-Yan Zhang Zhong-Hu Li |
| author_facet | Xin Jiang Wan-Jing Liu Yan-Zhao Zhu Yu-Ting Cao Xiu-Min Yang Yao Geng Fu-Jiao Zhang Rui-Qi Sun Rui-Wen Jia Chun-Li Yan Yang-Yan Zhang Zhong-Hu Li |
| author_sort | Xin Jiang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <i>Primula filchnerae</i>, an endangered plant endemic to China, has drawn people’s attention in recent years due to its ornamental value in flower. It was rarely recorded since being described in 1902, but it was rediscovered in 2009 and is now known from a limited number of sites located in Hubei and Shaanxi Provinces. Since the species is still poorly known, a number of unanswered questions arise related to it: How has <i>P. filchnerae</i> responded to past climate change and how might it respond in the future? Why was <i>P. filchmerae</i> so rarely collected during the past century? We assembled geographic coordinates for <i>P. filchnerae</i> through the field surveys and website searches, and then used a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate its potential suitable distribution in six periods with varied carbon emission levels by combining bioclimatic and environmental factors. MaxEnt showed that Min Temperature of the Coldest Month (bio6) and Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter (bio19) affected <i>P. filchnerae</i>’s distribution most, with an aggregate contribution >60% and suitable ranges above −5 °C and below 40 mm, respectively. We also analyzed potential habitat distribution in various periods with differing impacts of climate change compared to today’s suitable habitats, and in most cases, Shaanxi and Sichuan remained the most stable areas and with possible expansion to the north under various carbon emission scenarios, but the 2050s SSP5-8.5 scenario may be an exception. Moreover, we used MaxEnt to evaluate population shifts, with various scenarios indicating that geometric center would be concentrated in Sichuan Province in China. Finally, conservation strategies are suggested, including the creation of protected areas, long-term monitoring, raising public awareness of plant conservation, situ conservation measures, assisted migration, and species introduction. This study demonstrates how <i>P. filchnerae</i> may have adapted to changes in different periods and provides a scientific basis for germplasm conservation and management. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T20:57:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a39aaeabb3d645c2a9b6038170c565e5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2223-7747 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T20:57:50Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
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| record_format | Article |
| series | Plants |
| spelling | doaj.art-a39aaeabb3d645c2a9b6038170c565e52023-11-19T17:48:46ZengMDPI AGPlants2223-77472023-10-011220356110.3390/plants12203561Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of <i>Primula filchnerae</i>, an Endangered Herb in ChinaXin Jiang0Wan-Jing Liu1Yan-Zhao Zhu2Yu-Ting Cao3Xiu-Min Yang4Yao Geng5Fu-Jiao Zhang6Rui-Qi Sun7Rui-Wen Jia8Chun-Li Yan9Yang-Yan Zhang10Zhong-Hu Li11Key Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, ChinaKey Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, ChinaKey Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, ChinaKey Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, ChinaKey Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, ChinaKey Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, ChinaKey Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, ChinaKey Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, ChinaKey Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, ChinaKey Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, ChinaKey Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, ChinaKey Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, China<i>Primula filchnerae</i>, an endangered plant endemic to China, has drawn people’s attention in recent years due to its ornamental value in flower. It was rarely recorded since being described in 1902, but it was rediscovered in 2009 and is now known from a limited number of sites located in Hubei and Shaanxi Provinces. Since the species is still poorly known, a number of unanswered questions arise related to it: How has <i>P. filchnerae</i> responded to past climate change and how might it respond in the future? Why was <i>P. filchmerae</i> so rarely collected during the past century? We assembled geographic coordinates for <i>P. filchnerae</i> through the field surveys and website searches, and then used a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate its potential suitable distribution in six periods with varied carbon emission levels by combining bioclimatic and environmental factors. MaxEnt showed that Min Temperature of the Coldest Month (bio6) and Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter (bio19) affected <i>P. filchnerae</i>’s distribution most, with an aggregate contribution >60% and suitable ranges above −5 °C and below 40 mm, respectively. We also analyzed potential habitat distribution in various periods with differing impacts of climate change compared to today’s suitable habitats, and in most cases, Shaanxi and Sichuan remained the most stable areas and with possible expansion to the north under various carbon emission scenarios, but the 2050s SSP5-8.5 scenario may be an exception. Moreover, we used MaxEnt to evaluate population shifts, with various scenarios indicating that geometric center would be concentrated in Sichuan Province in China. Finally, conservation strategies are suggested, including the creation of protected areas, long-term monitoring, raising public awareness of plant conservation, situ conservation measures, assisted migration, and species introduction. This study demonstrates how <i>P. filchnerae</i> may have adapted to changes in different periods and provides a scientific basis for germplasm conservation and management.https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/12/20/3561species distributionMaxEnt modelclimate responseenvironmental factorsconservation strategies |
| spellingShingle | Xin Jiang Wan-Jing Liu Yan-Zhao Zhu Yu-Ting Cao Xiu-Min Yang Yao Geng Fu-Jiao Zhang Rui-Qi Sun Rui-Wen Jia Chun-Li Yan Yang-Yan Zhang Zhong-Hu Li Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of <i>Primula filchnerae</i>, an Endangered Herb in China Plants species distribution MaxEnt model climate response environmental factors conservation strategies |
| title | Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of <i>Primula filchnerae</i>, an Endangered Herb in China |
| title_full | Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of <i>Primula filchnerae</i>, an Endangered Herb in China |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of <i>Primula filchnerae</i>, an Endangered Herb in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of <i>Primula filchnerae</i>, an Endangered Herb in China |
| title_short | Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of <i>Primula filchnerae</i>, an Endangered Herb in China |
| title_sort | impacts of climate changes on geographic distribution of i primula filchnerae i an endangered herb in china |
| topic | species distribution MaxEnt model climate response environmental factors conservation strategies |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/12/20/3561 |
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