Analysis of future climate scenarios for northeastern Brazil and implications for human thermal comfort
Abstract A thermal comfort index for the Northeast of Brazil was analyzed for two scenarios of climatic changes, A1B and A2, for 2021-2080, and compared with the reference period 1961-1990. A technique of regionalization was applied to rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature data from meteorologic...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Academia Brasileira de Ciências
2021-02-01
|
| Series: | Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.scielo.br/pdf/aabc/v93n1/0001-3765-aabc-93-01-e20190651.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819097477366677504 |
|---|---|
| author | RAFAELA L. COSTA GUSTAVO M.M. BAPTISTA HELIOFÁBIO B. GOMES FABRÍCIO D.S. SILVA RODRIGO L. DA ROCHA JÚNIOR ANDERSON S. NEDEL |
| author_facet | RAFAELA L. COSTA GUSTAVO M.M. BAPTISTA HELIOFÁBIO B. GOMES FABRÍCIO D.S. SILVA RODRIGO L. DA ROCHA JÚNIOR ANDERSON S. NEDEL |
| author_sort | RAFAELA L. COSTA |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract A thermal comfort index for the Northeast of Brazil was analyzed for two scenarios of climatic changes, A1B and A2, for 2021-2080, and compared with the reference period 1961-1990. A technique of regionalization was applied to rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature data from meteorological stations, obtained by statistical downscaling of projections from four global climate models. The results pointed to a significant reduction of rainfall and an increase of temperature for three different climatically homogeneous subregions. Regarding the thermal comfort index, the results point to an increase in days with heat discomfort between 2021 and 2080. In the northern portion, the higher percentage of days with heat discomfort will be significant since the first half of the period under appreciation, i.e., from 2021 to 2050. Conversely, in the eastern of northeastern Brazil, the increase of days with heat discomfort should happen in the period from 2051 to 2080, whereas the central-western part of the region, which, in the reference period, had recorded less than 1% of days with heat discomfort, might see an elevation of that percentage to 7% between 2021 and 2050, potentially reaching 48% of its days made uncomfortable by heat between 2051 and 2080. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T00:15:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a3f80d56fa9942be897f63e0ff75441f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1678-2690 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T00:15:43Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
| spelling | doaj.art-a3f80d56fa9942be897f63e0ff75441f2022-12-21T18:45:19ZengAcademia Brasileira de CiênciasAnais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências1678-26902021-02-0193110.1590/0001-3765202120190651Analysis of future climate scenarios for northeastern Brazil and implications for human thermal comfortRAFAELA L. COSTAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8298-5901GUSTAVO M.M. BAPTISTAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1973-2725HELIOFÁBIO B. GOMEShttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1790-2505FABRÍCIO D.S. SILVAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3185-6413RODRIGO L. DA ROCHA JÚNIORhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4654-8947ANDERSON S. NEDELhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5456-6139Abstract A thermal comfort index for the Northeast of Brazil was analyzed for two scenarios of climatic changes, A1B and A2, for 2021-2080, and compared with the reference period 1961-1990. A technique of regionalization was applied to rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature data from meteorological stations, obtained by statistical downscaling of projections from four global climate models. The results pointed to a significant reduction of rainfall and an increase of temperature for three different climatically homogeneous subregions. Regarding the thermal comfort index, the results point to an increase in days with heat discomfort between 2021 and 2080. In the northern portion, the higher percentage of days with heat discomfort will be significant since the first half of the period under appreciation, i.e., from 2021 to 2050. Conversely, in the eastern of northeastern Brazil, the increase of days with heat discomfort should happen in the period from 2051 to 2080, whereas the central-western part of the region, which, in the reference period, had recorded less than 1% of days with heat discomfort, might see an elevation of that percentage to 7% between 2021 and 2050, potentially reaching 48% of its days made uncomfortable by heat between 2051 and 2080.http://www.scielo.br/pdf/aabc/v93n1/0001-3765-aabc-93-01-e20190651.pdfstatistical downscalingtemperaturetrendsKawamura discomfort index |
| spellingShingle | RAFAELA L. COSTA GUSTAVO M.M. BAPTISTA HELIOFÁBIO B. GOMES FABRÍCIO D.S. SILVA RODRIGO L. DA ROCHA JÚNIOR ANDERSON S. NEDEL Analysis of future climate scenarios for northeastern Brazil and implications for human thermal comfort Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências statistical downscaling temperature trends Kawamura discomfort index |
| title | Analysis of future climate scenarios for northeastern Brazil and implications for human thermal comfort |
| title_full | Analysis of future climate scenarios for northeastern Brazil and implications for human thermal comfort |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of future climate scenarios for northeastern Brazil and implications for human thermal comfort |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of future climate scenarios for northeastern Brazil and implications for human thermal comfort |
| title_short | Analysis of future climate scenarios for northeastern Brazil and implications for human thermal comfort |
| title_sort | analysis of future climate scenarios for northeastern brazil and implications for human thermal comfort |
| topic | statistical downscaling temperature trends Kawamura discomfort index |
| url | http://www.scielo.br/pdf/aabc/v93n1/0001-3765-aabc-93-01-e20190651.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rafaelalcosta analysisoffutureclimatescenariosfornortheasternbrazilandimplicationsforhumanthermalcomfort AT gustavommbaptista analysisoffutureclimatescenariosfornortheasternbrazilandimplicationsforhumanthermalcomfort AT heliofabiobgomes analysisoffutureclimatescenariosfornortheasternbrazilandimplicationsforhumanthermalcomfort AT fabriciodssilva analysisoffutureclimatescenariosfornortheasternbrazilandimplicationsforhumanthermalcomfort AT rodrigoldarochajunior analysisoffutureclimatescenariosfornortheasternbrazilandimplicationsforhumanthermalcomfort AT andersonsnedel analysisoffutureclimatescenariosfornortheasternbrazilandimplicationsforhumanthermalcomfort |