Modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of Argentina
The transmission of leptospirosis is conditioned by climatic variables. In northeastern Argentina leptospirosis outbreaks occur mainly in coincidence with periods of abundant precipitation and high hydrometric level. A Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Epidemiological Model (SIR) is proposed, which i...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844022010465 |
| _version_ | 1818218194605703168 |
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| author | Andrea Alejandra Gómez María Soledad López Gabriela Viviana Müller Leonardo Rafael López Walter Sione Leonardo Giovanini |
| author_facet | Andrea Alejandra Gómez María Soledad López Gabriela Viviana Müller Leonardo Rafael López Walter Sione Leonardo Giovanini |
| author_sort | Andrea Alejandra Gómez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The transmission of leptospirosis is conditioned by climatic variables. In northeastern Argentina leptospirosis outbreaks occur mainly in coincidence with periods of abundant precipitation and high hydrometric level. A Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Epidemiological Model (SIR) is proposed, which incorporates hydroclimatic variables for the three most populated cities in the area (Santa Fe, Paraná and Rosario), during the 2009–2018 period. Results obtained by solving the proposed SIR model for the 2010 outbreak are in good agreement with the actual data, capturing the dynamics of the leptospirosis outbreak wave. However, the model does not perform very well in the last months of the year when isolated cases appear outside the outbreak periods, probably due to non- climatic factors not explicitly considered in the present version of the model. Nevertheless, the dynamic modeling of infectious diseases considering hydroclimatic variables constitutes a climatic service for the public health system, not yet available in Argentina. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T07:19:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a4a6e542c87048a5a6112b53534e5ee5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T07:19:53Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj.art-a4a6e542c87048a5a6112b53534e5ee52022-12-22T00:33:24ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402022-06-0186e09758Modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of ArgentinaAndrea Alejandra Gómez0María Soledad López1Gabriela Viviana Müller2Leonardo Rafael López3Walter Sione4Leonardo Giovanini5Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Universidad Nacional del Litoral (UNL). Ciudad Universitaria, 3000, Santa Fe, Argentina; Corresponding author.Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Universidad Nacional del Litoral (UNL). Ciudad Universitaria, 3000, Santa Fe, ArgentinaConsejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Universidad Nacional del Litoral (UNL). Ciudad Universitaria, 3000, Santa Fe, ArgentinaBarcelona Institute for Global Health, Doctor Aiguader, 88, 08003, Barcelona, SpainFacultad de Ciencia y Tecnología de la Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos (FCYT-UADER), Ruta 11 - Km 10,5, 3100, Oro Verde, Entre Ríos, ArgentinaConsejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) – Instituto de Investigación en Señales, Sistemas e Inteligencia Computacional (Sinc(i)), Universidad Nacional del Litoral (UNL). Ciudad Universitaria, 3000, Santa Fe, ArgentinaThe transmission of leptospirosis is conditioned by climatic variables. In northeastern Argentina leptospirosis outbreaks occur mainly in coincidence with periods of abundant precipitation and high hydrometric level. A Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Epidemiological Model (SIR) is proposed, which incorporates hydroclimatic variables for the three most populated cities in the area (Santa Fe, Paraná and Rosario), during the 2009–2018 period. Results obtained by solving the proposed SIR model for the 2010 outbreak are in good agreement with the actual data, capturing the dynamics of the leptospirosis outbreak wave. However, the model does not perform very well in the last months of the year when isolated cases appear outside the outbreak periods, probably due to non- climatic factors not explicitly considered in the present version of the model. Nevertheless, the dynamic modeling of infectious diseases considering hydroclimatic variables constitutes a climatic service for the public health system, not yet available in Argentina.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844022010465Hydroclimatic variablesLeptospirorisNortheast of ArgentinaSIR Epidemiological model |
| spellingShingle | Andrea Alejandra Gómez María Soledad López Gabriela Viviana Müller Leonardo Rafael López Walter Sione Leonardo Giovanini Modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of Argentina Heliyon Hydroclimatic variables Leptospiroris Northeast of Argentina SIR Epidemiological model |
| title | Modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of Argentina |
| title_full | Modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of Argentina |
| title_fullStr | Modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of Argentina |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of Argentina |
| title_short | Modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of Argentina |
| title_sort | modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of argentina |
| topic | Hydroclimatic variables Leptospiroris Northeast of Argentina SIR Epidemiological model |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844022010465 |
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