Modeling Adaptive Strategies on Maintaining Wheat-Corn Production and Reducing Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Climate Change
Climate change has posed serious challenges to food production and sustainable development. We evaluated crop yields, N<sub>2</sub>O emissions, and soil organic carbon (SOC) in a typical wheat–corn rotation system field on the North China Plain on a 50-year scale using the Denitrificatio...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Agriculture |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/8/1089 |
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| author | Xiaopei Yi Naijie Chang Wuhan Ding Chi Xu Jing Zhang Jianfeng Zhang Hu Li |
| author_facet | Xiaopei Yi Naijie Chang Wuhan Ding Chi Xu Jing Zhang Jianfeng Zhang Hu Li |
| author_sort | Xiaopei Yi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change has posed serious challenges to food production and sustainable development. We evaluated crop yields, N<sub>2</sub>O emissions, and soil organic carbon (SOC) in a typical wheat–corn rotation system field on the North China Plain on a 50-year scale using the Denitrification–Decomposition (DNDC) model and proposed adaptive strategies for each climate scenarios. The study showed a good consistency between observations and simulations (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> > 0.95 and nRMSE < 30%). Among the twelve climate scenarios, we explored ten management practices under four climate scenarios (3 °C temperature change: P/T−3 and P/T+3; 30% precipitation change: 0.7P/T and 1.3P/T), which have a significant impact on crop yields and the net greenhouse effect. The results revealed that changing the crop planting time (CP) and using cold-resistant (CR) varieties could reduce the net greenhouse effect by more than 1/4 without sacrificing crop yields under P/T−3. Straw return (SR) minimized the negative impact on yields and the environment under P/T+3. Fertigation (FG) and Drought-Resistant (DR) varieties reduced the net greenhouse effect by more than 8.34% and maintained yields under 0.7P/T. SR was most beneficial to carbon sequestration, and yields were increased by 3.87% under 1.3P/T. Multiple adaptive strategies should be implemented to balance yields and reduce the environmental burden under future climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T12:03:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a4c6dd00762c412e994cf88a7e8a7f9f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-0472 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T12:03:56Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agriculture |
| spelling | doaj.art-a4c6dd00762c412e994cf88a7e8a7f9f2023-11-30T23:00:21ZengMDPI AGAgriculture2077-04722022-07-01128108910.3390/agriculture12081089Modeling Adaptive Strategies on Maintaining Wheat-Corn Production and Reducing Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Climate ChangeXiaopei Yi0Naijie Chang1Wuhan Ding2Chi Xu3Jing Zhang4Jianfeng Zhang5Hu Li6Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaInstitute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaInstitute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaInstitute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaEngineering and Technology Research Center for Agricultural Land Pollution Prevention and Control of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, ChinaInstitute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaInstitute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaClimate change has posed serious challenges to food production and sustainable development. We evaluated crop yields, N<sub>2</sub>O emissions, and soil organic carbon (SOC) in a typical wheat–corn rotation system field on the North China Plain on a 50-year scale using the Denitrification–Decomposition (DNDC) model and proposed adaptive strategies for each climate scenarios. The study showed a good consistency between observations and simulations (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> > 0.95 and nRMSE < 30%). Among the twelve climate scenarios, we explored ten management practices under four climate scenarios (3 °C temperature change: P/T−3 and P/T+3; 30% precipitation change: 0.7P/T and 1.3P/T), which have a significant impact on crop yields and the net greenhouse effect. The results revealed that changing the crop planting time (CP) and using cold-resistant (CR) varieties could reduce the net greenhouse effect by more than 1/4 without sacrificing crop yields under P/T−3. Straw return (SR) minimized the negative impact on yields and the environment under P/T+3. Fertigation (FG) and Drought-Resistant (DR) varieties reduced the net greenhouse effect by more than 8.34% and maintained yields under 0.7P/T. SR was most beneficial to carbon sequestration, and yields were increased by 3.87% under 1.3P/T. Multiple adaptive strategies should be implemented to balance yields and reduce the environmental burden under future climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/8/1089wheat–cornDNDCclimate changecrop yieldnet greenhouse effect |
| spellingShingle | Xiaopei Yi Naijie Chang Wuhan Ding Chi Xu Jing Zhang Jianfeng Zhang Hu Li Modeling Adaptive Strategies on Maintaining Wheat-Corn Production and Reducing Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Climate Change Agriculture wheat–corn DNDC climate change crop yield net greenhouse effect |
| title | Modeling Adaptive Strategies on Maintaining Wheat-Corn Production and Reducing Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Climate Change |
| title_full | Modeling Adaptive Strategies on Maintaining Wheat-Corn Production and Reducing Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | Modeling Adaptive Strategies on Maintaining Wheat-Corn Production and Reducing Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling Adaptive Strategies on Maintaining Wheat-Corn Production and Reducing Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Climate Change |
| title_short | Modeling Adaptive Strategies on Maintaining Wheat-Corn Production and Reducing Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Climate Change |
| title_sort | modeling adaptive strategies on maintaining wheat corn production and reducing net greenhouse gas emissions under climate change |
| topic | wheat–corn DNDC climate change crop yield net greenhouse effect |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/8/1089 |
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