Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe
The influence of anthropogenic climate change on both mean and extremely hot temperatures in Europe has been demonstrated in a number of studies. There is a growing consensus that high temperature extremes have increased more rapidly than the regional mean in central Europe, while the difference bet...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab76dd |
| _version_ | 1797747543231168512 |
|---|---|
| author | Aglaé Jézéquel Emanuele Bevacqua Fabio d’Andrea Soulivanh Thao Robert Vautard Mathieu Vrac Pascal Yiou |
| author_facet | Aglaé Jézéquel Emanuele Bevacqua Fabio d’Andrea Soulivanh Thao Robert Vautard Mathieu Vrac Pascal Yiou |
| author_sort | Aglaé Jézéquel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The influence of anthropogenic climate change on both mean and extremely hot temperatures in Europe has been demonstrated in a number of studies. There is a growing consensus that high temperature extremes have increased more rapidly than the regional mean in central Europe, while the difference between extreme and mean trends is not significant in other European regions. However, it is less clear how to quantify the changes in different processes leading to heat extremes. Extremely hot temperatures are associated to a large extent with specific types of atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate how the temperature associated with atmospheric patterns leading to extremely hot days in the present could evolve in the future. We propose a methodology to calculate conditional trends tailored to the circulation patterns of specific days by computing the evolution of the temperature for days with a similar circulation to the day of interest. We also introduce the concept of residual trends, which compare the conditional trends to regional mean temperature trends. We compute these trends for two case studies of the hottest days recorded in two different European regions (corresponding to the heat-waves of summer 2003 and 2010). We use the NCEP reanalysis dataset, an ensemble of CMIP5 models, and a large ensemble of a single coupled model (CESM), in order to account for different sources of uncertainty. We also evaluate how bias correction of climate simulations influences the results. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:53:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a4ed60f24c3940a881f0f8a209cb7e2d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:53:04Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-a4ed60f24c3940a881f0f8a209cb7e2d2023-08-09T15:05:09ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115606401810.1088/1748-9326/ab76ddConditional and residual trends of singular hot days in EuropeAglaé Jézéquel0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0957-3126Emanuele Bevacqua1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0472-5183Fabio d’Andrea2Soulivanh Thao3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3461-8522Robert Vautard4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5544-9903Mathieu Vrac5Pascal Yiou6LMD/IPSL, ENS, PSL Université, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Paris, France; Ecole des Ponts, Marne-la-Vallée, FranceDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United KingdomLMD/IPSL, ENS, PSL Université, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Paris, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceThe influence of anthropogenic climate change on both mean and extremely hot temperatures in Europe has been demonstrated in a number of studies. There is a growing consensus that high temperature extremes have increased more rapidly than the regional mean in central Europe, while the difference between extreme and mean trends is not significant in other European regions. However, it is less clear how to quantify the changes in different processes leading to heat extremes. Extremely hot temperatures are associated to a large extent with specific types of atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate how the temperature associated with atmospheric patterns leading to extremely hot days in the present could evolve in the future. We propose a methodology to calculate conditional trends tailored to the circulation patterns of specific days by computing the evolution of the temperature for days with a similar circulation to the day of interest. We also introduce the concept of residual trends, which compare the conditional trends to regional mean temperature trends. We compute these trends for two case studies of the hottest days recorded in two different European regions (corresponding to the heat-waves of summer 2003 and 2010). We use the NCEP reanalysis dataset, an ensemble of CMIP5 models, and a large ensemble of a single coupled model (CESM), in order to account for different sources of uncertainty. We also evaluate how bias correction of climate simulations influences the results.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab76ddclimate changeextreme eventsthermodynamicsdynamicsattribution |
| spellingShingle | Aglaé Jézéquel Emanuele Bevacqua Fabio d’Andrea Soulivanh Thao Robert Vautard Mathieu Vrac Pascal Yiou Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe Environmental Research Letters climate change extreme events thermodynamics dynamics attribution |
| title | Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe |
| title_full | Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe |
| title_fullStr | Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe |
| title_short | Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe |
| title_sort | conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in europe |
| topic | climate change extreme events thermodynamics dynamics attribution |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab76dd |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT aglaejezequel conditionalandresidualtrendsofsingularhotdaysineurope AT emanuelebevacqua conditionalandresidualtrendsofsingularhotdaysineurope AT fabiodandrea conditionalandresidualtrendsofsingularhotdaysineurope AT soulivanhthao conditionalandresidualtrendsofsingularhotdaysineurope AT robertvautard conditionalandresidualtrendsofsingularhotdaysineurope AT mathieuvrac conditionalandresidualtrendsofsingularhotdaysineurope AT pascalyiou conditionalandresidualtrendsofsingularhotdaysineurope |