Development of a Colic Scoring System to Predict Outcome in Horses
Acute abdominal pain in the horse is a common emergency presenting to equine practices. The wide variety of etiologies makes prognosticating survival a challenge. A retrospective, multi-institutional clinical study was performed to determine clinical parameters associated with survival of horses wit...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-10-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Veterinary Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2021.697589/full |
| _version_ | 1819030098738675712 |
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| author | Alanna Farrell Kevin Kersh Rachel Liepman Katarzyna A. Dembek |
| author_facet | Alanna Farrell Kevin Kersh Rachel Liepman Katarzyna A. Dembek |
| author_sort | Alanna Farrell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Acute abdominal pain in the horse is a common emergency presenting to equine practices. The wide variety of etiologies makes prognosticating survival a challenge. A retrospective, multi-institutional clinical study was performed to determine clinical parameters associated with survival of horses with colic, and to use them to develop a colic survival scoring system. The scoring system was then validated using clinical data in the prospective portion of the study. Medical records from 67 horses presenting for acute abdominal pain were evaluated to develop the colic assessment score. Twenty eight variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors and entered into logistic regression models for survival. Of these, six variables were included in the colic assessment score. A total colic assessment score range was from 0 to 12, with the highest score representing the lowest probability of survival. The optimal cutoff value to predict survival was seven resulting in an 86% sensitivity and 64% specificity with a positive predictive value of 88% and a negative predictive value of 57%. Data from 95 horses presenting for abdominal pain to two equine hospitals was then collected prospectively to validate the colic assessment score. Horses from the prospective portion of the study that received a score >7 were classified as predicted to die and those with a score ≤7 were predicted to survive. The classification was compared to the actual outcome, of which the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the colic assessment score were 84, 62, 88, and 52%, respectively. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T06:24:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a534c66e602f43fe94f0093e2352f046 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2297-1769 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T06:24:45Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Veterinary Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-a534c66e602f43fe94f0093e2352f0462022-12-21T19:13:10ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Veterinary Science2297-17692021-10-01810.3389/fvets.2021.697589697589Development of a Colic Scoring System to Predict Outcome in HorsesAlanna Farrell0Kevin Kersh1Rachel Liepman2Katarzyna A. Dembek3Department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United StatesDepartment of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United StatesChaparral Veterinary Medical Center, Cave Creek, AZ, United StatesDepartment of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United StatesAcute abdominal pain in the horse is a common emergency presenting to equine practices. The wide variety of etiologies makes prognosticating survival a challenge. A retrospective, multi-institutional clinical study was performed to determine clinical parameters associated with survival of horses with colic, and to use them to develop a colic survival scoring system. The scoring system was then validated using clinical data in the prospective portion of the study. Medical records from 67 horses presenting for acute abdominal pain were evaluated to develop the colic assessment score. Twenty eight variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors and entered into logistic regression models for survival. Of these, six variables were included in the colic assessment score. A total colic assessment score range was from 0 to 12, with the highest score representing the lowest probability of survival. The optimal cutoff value to predict survival was seven resulting in an 86% sensitivity and 64% specificity with a positive predictive value of 88% and a negative predictive value of 57%. Data from 95 horses presenting for abdominal pain to two equine hospitals was then collected prospectively to validate the colic assessment score. Horses from the prospective portion of the study that received a score >7 were classified as predicted to die and those with a score ≤7 were predicted to survive. The classification was compared to the actual outcome, of which the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the colic assessment score were 84, 62, 88, and 52%, respectively.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2021.697589/fullhorsecolicsurvivalprognosisretrospective |
| spellingShingle | Alanna Farrell Kevin Kersh Rachel Liepman Katarzyna A. Dembek Development of a Colic Scoring System to Predict Outcome in Horses Frontiers in Veterinary Science horse colic survival prognosis retrospective |
| title | Development of a Colic Scoring System to Predict Outcome in Horses |
| title_full | Development of a Colic Scoring System to Predict Outcome in Horses |
| title_fullStr | Development of a Colic Scoring System to Predict Outcome in Horses |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of a Colic Scoring System to Predict Outcome in Horses |
| title_short | Development of a Colic Scoring System to Predict Outcome in Horses |
| title_sort | development of a colic scoring system to predict outcome in horses |
| topic | horse colic survival prognosis retrospective |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2021.697589/full |
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