An Evaluation Method for Tornado Missile Strike Probability with Stochastic Correlation
An efficient evaluation method for the probability of a tornado missile strike without using the Monte Carlo method is proposed in this paper. A major part of the proposed probability evaluation is based on numerical results computed using an in-house code, Tornado-borne missile analysis code, which...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2017-03-01
|
| Series: | Nuclear Engineering and Technology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573316303229 |
| _version_ | 1811261199153627136 |
|---|---|
| author | Yuzuru Eguchi Takahiro Murakami Hiromaru Hirakuchi Soichiro Sugimoto Yasuo Hattori |
| author_facet | Yuzuru Eguchi Takahiro Murakami Hiromaru Hirakuchi Soichiro Sugimoto Yasuo Hattori |
| author_sort | Yuzuru Eguchi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | An efficient evaluation method for the probability of a tornado missile strike without using the Monte Carlo method is proposed in this paper. A major part of the proposed probability evaluation is based on numerical results computed using an in-house code, Tornado-borne missile analysis code, which enables us to evaluate the liftoff and flight behaviors of unconstrained objects on the ground driven by a tornado. Using the Tornado-borne missile analysis code, we can obtain a stochastic correlation between local wind speed and flight distance of each object, and this stochastic correlation is used to evaluate the conditional strike probability, QV(r), of a missile located at position r, where the local wind speed is V. In contrast, the annual exceedance probability of local wind speed, which can be computed using a tornado hazard analysis code, is used to derive the probability density function, p(V). Then, we finally obtain the annual probability of tornado missile strike on a structure with the convolutional integration of product of QV(r) and p(V) over V. The evaluation method is applied to a simple problem to qualitatively confirm the validity, and to quantitatively verify the results for two extreme cases in which an object is located just in the vicinity of or far away from the structure. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T18:59:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a59faaa7104b4230a774cd59bb03a416 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1738-5733 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T18:59:53Z |
| publishDate | 2017-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nuclear Engineering and Technology |
| spelling | doaj.art-a59faaa7104b4230a774cd59bb03a4162022-12-22T03:20:12ZengElsevierNuclear Engineering and Technology1738-57332017-03-0149239540310.1016/j.net.2016.12.007An Evaluation Method for Tornado Missile Strike Probability with Stochastic CorrelationYuzuru EguchiTakahiro MurakamiHiromaru HirakuchiSoichiro SugimotoYasuo HattoriAn efficient evaluation method for the probability of a tornado missile strike without using the Monte Carlo method is proposed in this paper. A major part of the proposed probability evaluation is based on numerical results computed using an in-house code, Tornado-borne missile analysis code, which enables us to evaluate the liftoff and flight behaviors of unconstrained objects on the ground driven by a tornado. Using the Tornado-borne missile analysis code, we can obtain a stochastic correlation between local wind speed and flight distance of each object, and this stochastic correlation is used to evaluate the conditional strike probability, QV(r), of a missile located at position r, where the local wind speed is V. In contrast, the annual exceedance probability of local wind speed, which can be computed using a tornado hazard analysis code, is used to derive the probability density function, p(V). Then, we finally obtain the annual probability of tornado missile strike on a structure with the convolutional integration of product of QV(r) and p(V) over V. The evaluation method is applied to a simple problem to qualitatively confirm the validity, and to quantitatively verify the results for two extreme cases in which an object is located just in the vicinity of or far away from the structure.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573316303229CorrelationMissileStrike ProbabilityTornadoWind Speed |
| spellingShingle | Yuzuru Eguchi Takahiro Murakami Hiromaru Hirakuchi Soichiro Sugimoto Yasuo Hattori An Evaluation Method for Tornado Missile Strike Probability with Stochastic Correlation Nuclear Engineering and Technology Correlation Missile Strike Probability Tornado Wind Speed |
| title | An Evaluation Method for Tornado Missile Strike Probability with Stochastic Correlation |
| title_full | An Evaluation Method for Tornado Missile Strike Probability with Stochastic Correlation |
| title_fullStr | An Evaluation Method for Tornado Missile Strike Probability with Stochastic Correlation |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Evaluation Method for Tornado Missile Strike Probability with Stochastic Correlation |
| title_short | An Evaluation Method for Tornado Missile Strike Probability with Stochastic Correlation |
| title_sort | evaluation method for tornado missile strike probability with stochastic correlation |
| topic | Correlation Missile Strike Probability Tornado Wind Speed |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573316303229 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yuzurueguchi anevaluationmethodfortornadomissilestrikeprobabilitywithstochasticcorrelation AT takahiromurakami anevaluationmethodfortornadomissilestrikeprobabilitywithstochasticcorrelation AT hiromaruhirakuchi anevaluationmethodfortornadomissilestrikeprobabilitywithstochasticcorrelation AT soichirosugimoto anevaluationmethodfortornadomissilestrikeprobabilitywithstochasticcorrelation AT yasuohattori anevaluationmethodfortornadomissilestrikeprobabilitywithstochasticcorrelation AT yuzurueguchi evaluationmethodfortornadomissilestrikeprobabilitywithstochasticcorrelation AT takahiromurakami evaluationmethodfortornadomissilestrikeprobabilitywithstochasticcorrelation AT hiromaruhirakuchi evaluationmethodfortornadomissilestrikeprobabilitywithstochasticcorrelation AT soichirosugimoto evaluationmethodfortornadomissilestrikeprobabilitywithstochasticcorrelation AT yasuohattori evaluationmethodfortornadomissilestrikeprobabilitywithstochasticcorrelation |