METHODOLOGY OF PROBABILISTIC EVALUATING OF CURRENT ACCIDENT RATE BASED ON THE FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF AVIATION EVENTS
Methodological approach to cumulative quantitative estimation of safety level is presented through probabilistic (frequency) indices of aviation events on the record, taking into account the importance of their сause factors. Based on the set-up correlation, the conditional probability of turning le...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Moscow State Technical University of Civil Aviation
2016-11-01
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| Series: | Научный вестник МГТУ ГА |
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| Online Access: | https://avia.mstuca.ru/jour/article/view/273 |
| Summary: | Methodological approach to cumulative quantitative estimation of safety level is presented through probabilistic (frequency) indices of aviation events on the record, taking into account the importance of their сause factors. Based on the set-up correlation, the conditional probability of turning less service events into more severe events is recorded. Formulae for calculating the current value of the estimated probability of a serious incident (if in any), accident, crash are introduced. |
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| ISSN: | 2079-0619 2542-0119 |