METHODOLOGY OF PROBABILISTIC EVALUATING OF CURRENT ACCIDENT RATE BASED ON THE FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF AVIATION EVENTS
Methodological approach to cumulative quantitative estimation of safety level is presented through probabilistic (frequency) indices of aviation events on the record, taking into account the importance of their сause factors. Based on the set-up correlation, the conditional probability of turning le...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Moscow State Technical University of Civil Aviation
2016-11-01
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| Series: | Научный вестник МГТУ ГА |
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| Online Access: | https://avia.mstuca.ru/jour/article/view/273 |
| _version_ | 1797883025703305216 |
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| author | A. M. Lushkin |
| author_facet | A. M. Lushkin |
| author_sort | A. M. Lushkin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Methodological approach to cumulative quantitative estimation of safety level is presented through probabilistic (frequency) indices of aviation events on the record, taking into account the importance of their сause factors. Based on the set-up correlation, the conditional probability of turning less service events into more severe events is recorded. Formulae for calculating the current value of the estimated probability of a serious incident (if in any), accident, crash are introduced. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T03:45:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a5ba40447953494cabb1c6d0d03ec1f6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2079-0619 2542-0119 |
| language | Russian |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T03:45:18Z |
| publishDate | 2016-11-01 |
| publisher | Moscow State Technical University of Civil Aviation |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Научный вестник МГТУ ГА |
| spelling | doaj.art-a5ba40447953494cabb1c6d0d03ec1f62023-03-13T07:19:14ZrusMoscow State Technical University of Civil AviationНаучный вестник МГТУ ГА2079-06192542-01192016-11-012182428273METHODOLOGY OF PROBABILISTIC EVALUATING OF CURRENT ACCIDENT RATE BASED ON THE FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF AVIATION EVENTSA. M. Lushkin0ОАО «Авиакомпания «ЮТэйр»Methodological approach to cumulative quantitative estimation of safety level is presented through probabilistic (frequency) indices of aviation events on the record, taking into account the importance of their сause factors. Based on the set-up correlation, the conditional probability of turning less service events into more severe events is recorded. Formulae for calculating the current value of the estimated probability of a serious incident (if in any), accident, crash are introduced.https://avia.mstuca.ru/jour/article/view/273инцидентсерьезный инцидентавариякатастрофапричинные факторыоценка вероятноститренд |
| spellingShingle | A. M. Lushkin METHODOLOGY OF PROBABILISTIC EVALUATING OF CURRENT ACCIDENT RATE BASED ON THE FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF AVIATION EVENTS Научный вестник МГТУ ГА инцидент серьезный инцидент авария катастрофа причинные факторы оценка вероятности тренд |
| title | METHODOLOGY OF PROBABILISTIC EVALUATING OF CURRENT ACCIDENT RATE BASED ON THE FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF AVIATION EVENTS |
| title_full | METHODOLOGY OF PROBABILISTIC EVALUATING OF CURRENT ACCIDENT RATE BASED ON THE FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF AVIATION EVENTS |
| title_fullStr | METHODOLOGY OF PROBABILISTIC EVALUATING OF CURRENT ACCIDENT RATE BASED ON THE FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF AVIATION EVENTS |
| title_full_unstemmed | METHODOLOGY OF PROBABILISTIC EVALUATING OF CURRENT ACCIDENT RATE BASED ON THE FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF AVIATION EVENTS |
| title_short | METHODOLOGY OF PROBABILISTIC EVALUATING OF CURRENT ACCIDENT RATE BASED ON THE FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF AVIATION EVENTS |
| title_sort | methodology of probabilistic evaluating of current accident rate based on the factorial analysis of aviation events |
| topic | инцидент серьезный инцидент авария катастрофа причинные факторы оценка вероятности тренд |
| url | https://avia.mstuca.ru/jour/article/view/273 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT amlushkin methodologyofprobabilisticevaluatingofcurrentaccidentratebasedonthefactorialanalysisofaviationevents |