Grade prediction in the middle east: a post-pandemic case study of the optimism bias
Evidence exists that the pandemic has brought about stress, and altered study habits and academic performance. No evidence exists regarding whether metacognition has also been altered. The present field study examined the accuracy and confidence with which college students make grade predictions in...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Psychology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1270621/full |
| _version_ | 1797348572941778944 |
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| author | Maura A. E. Pilotti Maura A. E. Pilotti Khadija El Alaoui Khadija El Alaoui Arifi Waked Arifi Waked |
| author_facet | Maura A. E. Pilotti Maura A. E. Pilotti Khadija El Alaoui Khadija El Alaoui Arifi Waked Arifi Waked |
| author_sort | Maura A. E. Pilotti |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Evidence exists that the pandemic has brought about stress, and altered study habits and academic performance. No evidence exists regarding whether metacognition has also been altered. The present field study examined the accuracy and confidence with which college students make grade predictions in a general education course after the pandemic. It tested whether one of three types of biases affected students’ predictions as a way to cope with the uncertainty of a final exam’s outcome: illusion-of-knowing, optimism, and pessimistic bracing. Students made predictions both before and after completing the final exam (summative assessment) to determine the impact of each of the hypothesized biases on estimates made in a context of varying uncertainty. Accuracy was computed as the difference between expected and actual grades on the final exam. Confidence in the predictions made was measured on a Likert scale. Exam performance was categorized as good, poor, or inadequate. In this study, less-than-desirable performance was accompanied by overestimations. However, overestimations were made with little confidence and benefited from the information acquired from completing the exam. This pattern of results suggests that students who are not doing well are not under the spell of the illusion-of-knowing phenomenon. Indeed, their optimistic predictions are punctured by the awareness of a likely undesirable outcome (as indicated by their weak confidence in the predictions made). Implications and applications of these findings are discussed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T12:07:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a5e3bcabbb104330a16a20e5c731ce9e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1664-1078 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T12:07:57Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Psychology |
| spelling | doaj.art-a5e3bcabbb104330a16a20e5c731ce9e2024-01-23T04:33:36ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Psychology1664-10782024-01-011410.3389/fpsyg.2023.12706211270621Grade prediction in the middle east: a post-pandemic case study of the optimism biasMaura A. E. Pilotti0Maura A. E. Pilotti1Khadija El Alaoui2Khadija El Alaoui3Arifi Waked4Arifi Waked5Department of Sciences and Human Studies, Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, Khobar, Saudi ArabiaCognitive Science Center, Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, Khobar, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Sciences and Human Studies, Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, Khobar, Saudi ArabiaCognitive Science Center, Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, Khobar, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Sciences and Human Studies, Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, Khobar, Saudi ArabiaCognitive Science Center, Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, Khobar, Saudi ArabiaEvidence exists that the pandemic has brought about stress, and altered study habits and academic performance. No evidence exists regarding whether metacognition has also been altered. The present field study examined the accuracy and confidence with which college students make grade predictions in a general education course after the pandemic. It tested whether one of three types of biases affected students’ predictions as a way to cope with the uncertainty of a final exam’s outcome: illusion-of-knowing, optimism, and pessimistic bracing. Students made predictions both before and after completing the final exam (summative assessment) to determine the impact of each of the hypothesized biases on estimates made in a context of varying uncertainty. Accuracy was computed as the difference between expected and actual grades on the final exam. Confidence in the predictions made was measured on a Likert scale. Exam performance was categorized as good, poor, or inadequate. In this study, less-than-desirable performance was accompanied by overestimations. However, overestimations were made with little confidence and benefited from the information acquired from completing the exam. This pattern of results suggests that students who are not doing well are not under the spell of the illusion-of-knowing phenomenon. Indeed, their optimistic predictions are punctured by the awareness of a likely undesirable outcome (as indicated by their weak confidence in the predictions made). Implications and applications of these findings are discussed.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1270621/fullgrade predictionaccuracyconfidencemiddle eastillusion of knowingoptimism bias |
| spellingShingle | Maura A. E. Pilotti Maura A. E. Pilotti Khadija El Alaoui Khadija El Alaoui Arifi Waked Arifi Waked Grade prediction in the middle east: a post-pandemic case study of the optimism bias Frontiers in Psychology grade prediction accuracy confidence middle east illusion of knowing optimism bias |
| title | Grade prediction in the middle east: a post-pandemic case study of the optimism bias |
| title_full | Grade prediction in the middle east: a post-pandemic case study of the optimism bias |
| title_fullStr | Grade prediction in the middle east: a post-pandemic case study of the optimism bias |
| title_full_unstemmed | Grade prediction in the middle east: a post-pandemic case study of the optimism bias |
| title_short | Grade prediction in the middle east: a post-pandemic case study of the optimism bias |
| title_sort | grade prediction in the middle east a post pandemic case study of the optimism bias |
| topic | grade prediction accuracy confidence middle east illusion of knowing optimism bias |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1270621/full |
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