), Implementation of Vector Auto-Regression Models in Tourism: State Of The Art Analysis and Further Development, Doctoral Dissertation Summary
The dissertation focuses on time series analysis and is based on several research strategies and methods. The methodology used in the research process was published in four papers as part of international scientific journals indexed in the Web of Science database. Since tourism is one of the mos...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Faculty of tourism and hospitality management
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Tourism and Hospitality Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://thm.fthm.hr/images/issues/vol28no3/Doctoral_summary_Gricar |
| _version_ | 1797962153817276416 |
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| author | Sergej Gričar |
| author_facet | Sergej Gričar |
| author_sort | Sergej Gričar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The dissertation focuses on time series analysis and is based on several research strategies
and methods.
The methodology used in the research process was published in four papers as part of
international scientific journals indexed in the Web of Science database. Since tourism
is one of the most lagged industries in science there is need for new and innovative
approaches in key tourist sector determinants modelling and forecasting.
This doctoral thesis introduces an extension of time series methodology that focuses
on investigating and testing the normal distribution of residuals, as a key adequacy
prerequisite of econometric models. This issue has not systematically been considered in
quantitative approaches in tourism.
The motivation for research of the doctoral thesis are multidimensional: to filter previous
research on time series in tourism and to theoretically and empirically improve and
redesign time series methodology and methods for tourism. Both issues were successfully
presented in one of the published papers. Finally, tourism forecasts should be based on
reliable models as evident, from the most recent shocks, ex-ante tourism forecasting has
to be considered crucial in evaluating model efficiency.
The dissertation aimed to research and develop appropriate econometric models able to
capture the specifics of multiple interactions in the tourism market. The research seeks
to develop econometric models for the Republics of Slovenia and Croatia, two countries
whose economic development is predicated on tourism. Four goals and four specific objectives have been specified during the research process:
1) To introduce an improved time series approach in cointegrated panels. The first specific
objective (SO1) is to test at least ten econometric modelling structures that reduce cycle
breaks. 2) To examine previous theoretical thinking regarding the cointegration of
time series, cross-sectional data, and panels. The second specific objective (SO2) is to
outline at least 250 previous empirical studies for the tourism industry. 3) To examine
cointegration in tourism data for Slovenia and Croatia. The third objective (SO3) is
to model at least three econometric time series equations and mathematical theorems/
lemmas for the tourism industry. 4) To improve and better understand unit root tests in
tourism. The specific objective (SO4) is to approach the design of at least three stable
and innovative models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T01:09:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a65271f5711242959d8ddf9c509e1ca4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1330-7533 1847-3377 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T01:09:59Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Faculty of tourism and hospitality management |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tourism and Hospitality Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-a65271f5711242959d8ddf9c509e1ca42023-01-04T09:12:56ZengFaculty of tourism and hospitality managementTourism and Hospitality Management1330-75331847-33772023-01-0128370770910.20867/thm.28.3.16), Implementation of Vector Auto-Regression Models in Tourism: State Of The Art Analysis and Further Development, Doctoral Dissertation SummarySergej GričarThe dissertation focuses on time series analysis and is based on several research strategies and methods. The methodology used in the research process was published in four papers as part of international scientific journals indexed in the Web of Science database. Since tourism is one of the most lagged industries in science there is need for new and innovative approaches in key tourist sector determinants modelling and forecasting. This doctoral thesis introduces an extension of time series methodology that focuses on investigating and testing the normal distribution of residuals, as a key adequacy prerequisite of econometric models. This issue has not systematically been considered in quantitative approaches in tourism. The motivation for research of the doctoral thesis are multidimensional: to filter previous research on time series in tourism and to theoretically and empirically improve and redesign time series methodology and methods for tourism. Both issues were successfully presented in one of the published papers. Finally, tourism forecasts should be based on reliable models as evident, from the most recent shocks, ex-ante tourism forecasting has to be considered crucial in evaluating model efficiency. The dissertation aimed to research and develop appropriate econometric models able to capture the specifics of multiple interactions in the tourism market. The research seeks to develop econometric models for the Republics of Slovenia and Croatia, two countries whose economic development is predicated on tourism. Four goals and four specific objectives have been specified during the research process: 1) To introduce an improved time series approach in cointegrated panels. The first specific objective (SO1) is to test at least ten econometric modelling structures that reduce cycle breaks. 2) To examine previous theoretical thinking regarding the cointegration of time series, cross-sectional data, and panels. The second specific objective (SO2) is to outline at least 250 previous empirical studies for the tourism industry. 3) To examine cointegration in tourism data for Slovenia and Croatia. The third objective (SO3) is to model at least three econometric time series equations and mathematical theorems/ lemmas for the tourism industry. 4) To improve and better understand unit root tests in tourism. The specific objective (SO4) is to approach the design of at least three stable and innovative models.https://thm.fthm.hr/images/issues/vol28no3/Doctoral_summary_Gricarcroatiaeconometric analysistime series forecastingsecondary datasloveniatourist arrivals |
| spellingShingle | Sergej Gričar ), Implementation of Vector Auto-Regression Models in Tourism: State Of The Art Analysis and Further Development, Doctoral Dissertation Summary Tourism and Hospitality Management croatia econometric analysis time series forecasting secondary data slovenia tourist arrivals |
| title | ), Implementation of Vector Auto-Regression Models in Tourism: State Of The Art Analysis and Further Development, Doctoral Dissertation Summary |
| title_full | ), Implementation of Vector Auto-Regression Models in Tourism: State Of The Art Analysis and Further Development, Doctoral Dissertation Summary |
| title_fullStr | ), Implementation of Vector Auto-Regression Models in Tourism: State Of The Art Analysis and Further Development, Doctoral Dissertation Summary |
| title_full_unstemmed | ), Implementation of Vector Auto-Regression Models in Tourism: State Of The Art Analysis and Further Development, Doctoral Dissertation Summary |
| title_short | ), Implementation of Vector Auto-Regression Models in Tourism: State Of The Art Analysis and Further Development, Doctoral Dissertation Summary |
| title_sort | implementation of vector auto regression models in tourism state of the art analysis and further development doctoral dissertation summary |
| topic | croatia econometric analysis time series forecasting secondary data slovenia tourist arrivals |
| url | https://thm.fthm.hr/images/issues/vol28no3/Doctoral_summary_Gricar |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sergejgricar implementationofvectorautoregressionmodelsintourismstateoftheartanalysisandfurtherdevelopmentdoctoraldissertationsummary |